Last night, Notre Dame played its first public game of the Micah Shrewsberry era, hosting Division III Hanover College for an exhibition. Notre Dame won the game 96–62, and that’s good. The first step of an exhibition against a D3 opponent is to win. More interestingly, here’s the box score. Distilled:
- It’s looking like a nine-man rotation. Last night, those nine split time fairly evenly. Markus Burton, Braeden Shrewsberry, Julian Roper II, Tae Davis, and Kebba Njie started; Carey Booth, Logan Imes, J.R. Konieczny, and Matt Zona came off the bench.
- Alex Wade and Tony Sanders Jr. didn’t play much. A combined 10:39 of time on the floor, and neither entered the game until the second half.
- The walk-ons, behind Wade (who is now on scholarship), are Raheem Braiton, JT Kelly, Thomas Hattan, Thomas Crowe, and Zane Harbaugh. God willing, we will not need these names, or they’ll overachieve so dramatically that some will be on scholarship themselves (I think the program is still two players short of a full scholarship deck, though the math changes consider commitments for next year). Zane Harbaugh, for those wondering, does not appear to be a close relative of Jim Harbaugh, but we cannot discount the possibility that he is a spy, potentially even Connor Stalions himself in some sort of disguise.
None of this is too surprising. We were curious about Sanders’s role, and we’re still curious how those nine will balance out once actual games are happening, but this is more or less what we expected. Two true freshmen will likely start, and two more will play significant minutes off the bench. The three transfers will likely start, two of whom are true sophomores. Zona and Konieczny will get minutes, but ideally won’t have to be go-to players unless Konieczny is living up to the sometimes-optimistic rumblings and Zona is doing a semi-passable Jack Cooley impersonation (we don’t need Cooley out of him, but those are probably the traits to try to emulate).
The fun spin is that all nine of these guys have eligibility for next year, and that four members of the starting five are building blocks who are expected to remain around for at least the next three years. Burton and the younger Shrewsberry might be in there because of trust they’ve earned with the ball. It’s a roster that should improve over the course of the year, and one that can get through nonconference play with a winning record if it merely takes care of business against teams it should outmatch. It’s the medium-term future of the program in its earliest stage.
The less fun spin is that two three-star freshmen might only be in the starting lineup thanks to positional need, that Tae Davis couldn’t get many minutes last year at Seton Hall, and that Julian Roper’s time at Northwestern was spotty. This team gave up ten offensive rebounds to a Division III school, only shot 63% from the free throw line, and mostly scored on open looks in the paint, not something that should be a frequent opportunity against ACC defenses. Notre Dame will likely be overmatched in five of its first eleven games, and at least two of the other six will at least be risky. This team might only be a single-digit favorite at home on Monday against Niagara. KenPom has Niagara finishing .500 in the MAAC.
So, despite the final score, it’s an inauspicious start. We’ll learn more on Monday. Optimism is warranted, but more for the long term than this year.
Notre Dame Bowling
We’ve been doing bowl projections this year for the first time at The Barking Crow, and what it’s revealed to us is that you either need insider knowledge or you need to guess well if you’re going to project accurately in the current age of bowls. It’s a complex system with a lot of moving parts and closed-door rooms, and the shuffling sponsors and shifting conference ties make it hard for fans to intuitively track which bowl is which.
As far as we can tell, this is Notre Dame’s current situation:
To definitively lock up a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl, Notre Dame needs to finish 6th or better in the final College Football Playoff rankings. This contradicts what’s out there in some other places, but it’s our impression that it’s technically true. To be absolutely, 100% guaranteed a New Year’s Six spot, Notre Dame must finish 6th or better. More likely, they only need to finish 9th or 10th, but in a wild scenario* in which all five Power Five champions don’t make the playoff, a 7th-ranked Notre Dame could conceivably wind up on the outside. Which bowl would the New Year’s Six bowl be? The Fiesta Bowl, Cotton Bowl, and Peach Bowl are all possibilities. Whom would Notre Dame play? It would probably be the at-large team closest to them in the rankings after assigning an ACC team to the Orange Bowl, assigning an SEC or Big Ten team to the Orange Bowl, and making sure there are no regular season rematches in any New Year’s Six bowl. Everyone from Alabama to Oklahoma to Air Force is a potential foe. We’ll get a lot more clarity in the next few weeks.
It’s been written in some places that there’s an Orange Bowl path for Notre Dame, and that might technically be true, but our impression is that Notre Dame would have to not only outrank every non-playoff Big Ten and SEC team, but that Louisville, Duke, and Clemson would have to not be the ACC’s Orange Bowl representative. We believe they’d avoid a rematch there.
Behind the New Year’s Six, what we’ve seen indicates Notre Dame could be invited to fill any ACC bowl slot so long as they’re within one game of the ACC team who’d otherwise be selected. In practice, as long as Notre Dame goes even 9–3, this should make them the top “ACC” team picked after the Orange Bowl grabs (probably Louisville), which seems likeliest to land our Irish in the ReliaQuest Bowl against a Big Ten or SEC opponent (LSU and Mississippi are current contenders—our impression is that the best-ranked SEC team behind the New Year’s Six will end up in the Citrus Bowl, while the next team in line goes to the ReliaQuest Bowl if there isn’t a better Big Ten team available). The Pop-Tarts Bowl against a Big 12 opponent is also a possibility, and we’re curious if the Holiday Bowl could become a destination if the Pac-12 opponent there makes for a better matchup than what the ReliaQuest Bowl or the Pop-Tarts Bowl would offer.
Zooming out, and listening to your plaintive cries: The ReliaQuest Bowl?? The Pop-Tarts Bowl?? How in the world did we get to the point where Notre Dame’s bowl situation is New Year’s Six or bust?
Well, the ReliaQuest Bowl is the New Year’s Day Bowl formerly known as the Outback Bowl, so that’s a start. A bad bowl? It depends on your perspective. The Hall of Fame was dropped from the name in the 90s, and it’s been a sponsor-only bowl title ever since. It’s ugly, but it’s fairly likely to include at least one ranked team, and it’s technically a New Year’s bowl.
The Pop-Tarts Bowl has gone by all sorts of names, including: the Champs Sports Bowl, the Russell Athletic Bowl, the Camping World Bowl, and the Cheez-It Bowl. It was briefly called the Tangerine Bowl—the original name of what’s now the Citrus Bowl—but otherwise, it too has been a sponsor-only bowl. Notre Dame has played in this game in 2011 (against Florida State, the 18–14 loss) and in 2019 (against Iowa State, the 33–9 win). It’s going to be held on the night of December 28th this year, a Thursday, and it’s expected to match an ACC team up with the second-best Big 12 team behind those which garner New Year’s Six and College Football Playoff invitations.
So, that’s where Notre Dame is at. It kind of is a “New Year’s Six or bust” situation. Playing on New Year’s is an accomplishment, but nobody should want to play in a game named the ReliaQuest Bowl if they can help it. We want the Peach Bowl, or the Cotton Bowl, or the Fiesta Bowl.
How likely is it that we get there? Our model doesn’t give a concrete probability, but its latest simulations have Notre Dame finishing with ten wins 69% of the time, nine wins 28% of the time, and eight or seven wins 3% of the time. A ten-win Notre Dame’s average final ranking is 10th. A nine-win Notre Dame’s average final ranking is 16th. In 43% of instances, Notre Dame finishes ranked 10th or better. In 29% of instances, Notre Dame finishes ranked 9th or better. There are some scenarios where 11th is enough—Notre Dame would need the ACC’s Orange Bowl representative to be one of the teams ahead of them, among other help—but the short version is that it’s currently a little less than 50% likely that Notre Dame makes a New Year’s Six bowl. Beat Clemson, and it becomes a bit better than 50% likely, but more help is still needed.
*Scenario: 10–3 LSU wins the SEC; 10–3 Louisville wins the ACC; 10–3 USC wins the Pac-12; 10–3 Kansas State wins the Big 12; 10–3 or worse Big Ten West team wins the Big Ten; leaving a bunch of one-loss non-champions in the Playoff and only two at-large places available in the New Year’s Six bowls.
Quick(er) Hitters
Notre Dame was picked to finish last in the ACC at ACC Media Day, potentially setting up quite the season-long showdown with Louisville (we have to play them on the road), but we did get this great picture of Shrewsberry that will ideally look awesome in five years and not depressingly hilarious.
Mitchell Evans is going to miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL, a disastrous turn for the guy whose hands electrified during the Ohio State game and has been the top offensive weapon ever since. Ideally, he returns in ten months and we have him in College Station next August, but he’ll be badly missed on Saturday and in the remaining three games, and returning to full strength from an ACL tear is a heavy task over only ten months.
Benjamin Morris and Cam Hart are expected to be available against Clemson after Morrison missed the Pitt game and Hart left midway through.
Michael Pratt—Tulane’s quarterback—refuted a report from earlier today that said he was considering transferring to a Power Five school this offseason, but not to say he’s entering the NFL Draft. Rather, he said he’s “focused on this season.” So, we can still assume Pratt might be transferring this offseason, and we can still assume Notre Dame would at least be considered, especially after seeing the school’s love for Sam Hartman this fall. If someone does transfer in to play quarterback, Hartman will be a tough act to follow.
CJ Carr—incoming four-star recruit—has a big game this weekend against undefeated Belleville in the second round of Michigan’s state playoffs. Belleville is quarterbacked by Bryce Underwood, the second-ranked player in the whole Class of 2025 on the 247 composite. Underwood’s “warm interest” teams on 247 are Alabama, Colorado, LSU, and…*drum roll*…Michigan. Go get it, CJ.
This Week
Most ACC football teams these days aren’t as good as their record. That’s generally the theme of the worst Power Five league. Clemson, on the other hand, has two overtime losses, and one of the others came by only a touchdown. They haven’t won impressively when they’ve won, but that isn’t really something their offense is built to do, unintentional though that may be. They’re a good defensive team, and they’re a decent team overall, ranked 31st by Movelor, 21st by SP+, and 20th by FPI. Whether they’re a top-25 opponent or not, this is effectively a ranked game on the road against a talented but underachieving opponent. It’s being played at noon. This is the recipe for an upset.
What does Notre Dame have to do to win? Playing its game should be enough. This Notre Dame team is better than this Clemson team. But if the offense turns the ball over in the first quarter like it did last week, Clemson’s going to make it costlier than Pitt did. If the offense can’t get the passing game going and Clemson’s allowed to stuff the box, it’s going to be a slog, and a lot of pressure’s going to be on Notre Dame’s defense to yet again carry the day. Brace yourselves for a tense three and a half hours. Hopefully the front seven can rattle Cade Klubnik, who has looked rattled a number of times this season.
The women’s basketball team beat Purdue Northwest 110–48 in an exhibition on Monday. The AP Poll (a valuable exercise in the preseason before it enters its detrimental era, which spans the entire rest of the year) has the Irish 10th in the country, and the ACC preseason poll has Notre Dame 2nd in the league, trailing Virginia Tech and landing 23% of first-place votes.
In soccer, the women’s team grabbed a decisive 2–0 win over Clemson on Thursday night, leading from the 13th minute onward. It capped off a 7–1–2 ACC campaign which gave Notre Dame the second seed in the ACC Tournament and locked in Eva Gaetino’s second straight season as ACC Defender of the Year. The Irish rematch with Clemson this evening on ACC Network in the ACC Semifinals. Win, and they’ll play the Florida State–Pitt winner on Sunday in the conference championship. Win, and the thought from the athletic department’s own site is that they’ll get a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament and host until the quarterfinals.
The men’s soccer team also got a nice win last week, mauling Pitt in a 6–0 victory. The regular season ACC champions, they’ll host Louisville in the ACC Quarterfinals on Sunday night as they push for a top seed in what I believe is the 48-team NCAA Tournament in this sport.
Cross country’s ACC Championships were Friday morning, and Notre Dame finished 2nd in the women’s race and 4th in the men’s, Olivia Markezich turning in the best performance of the day with a 4th-place individual finish for the women. In the USTFCCCA (what an acronym) coaches poll, the women’s team remained ranked first in the Great Lakes Region, dropping to 9th in the country as Washington surged past. The men’s team dropped to third in the Great Lakes Region, now trailing Wisconsin and Butler after each won their conference meet. They also dropped to 17th nationally, having entered the race 14th. The two top finishers from each Region qualify for nationals, and thirteen at-large teams are chosen by a committee. That should leave each team in good shape to reach nationals after the regional meet next weekend, but there are no guarantees. Cross country has a small regular season sample.
Notre Dame volleyball lost to Miami and Florida State last weekend, extending the losing streak to five matches and leaving themselves 4–8 in conference play, tied for tenth in the conference. They’ve got 5–7 Clemson and 10–2 Georgia Tech on the road tomorrow and Sunday. Georgia Tech is currently ranked 10th in the country.
The hockey team swept Mercyhurst, winning in overtime on Thursday and 5–0 in regulation on Friday. Landon Slaggert scored four goals and was named the Big Ten’s Third Star of the Week. They open Big Ten play on Saturday night on the road against Penn State, with the second leg scheduled for Sunday afternoon. Penn State was picked to finish 6th in the 7-team Big Ten, two spots behind Notre Dame. They’ve played better in the early season, though, and are ranked 17th while Notre Dame is hardly receiving votes. This would all imply that a split would be a good weekend.
Notre Dame swimming and diving returns to the pool tomorrow at Louisville. It’s a good test for the 17th-ranked men, as Louisville’s ranked 12th in the country. It’s a little more daunting of a test for the unranked women, with Louisville ranked 3rd on that side of the sport.
The women’s tennis team went 18–8 down at TCU last weekend in an invitational featuring a lot of Big 12 competition. They’ll close out their fall this weekend at FGCU (though it’s possible there are individual events I’m missing). The men’s team is hosting its “Mini Duals” tournament this weekend, an event featuring Princeton, Illinois, Louisville, DePaul, and Drake. That should also close out the fall, though again it’s possible I’m missing individual happenings. Tennis has a unique format among college sports.
Notre Dame fencing has what I believe is its first team event this weekend out in Colorado Spring, competing in the Air Force Academy’s Western Invitational.
The women’s lacrosse team has a fall game tomorrow night at Northwestern.
