Entering the season, Notre Dame’s schedule looked tough. USC was the Pac-12 favorite. Ohio State and Clemson were in some sort of co-favorite status in the Big Ten and the ACC. All three were top-ten teams in the preseason AP Poll, and at long last, Notre Dame didn’t have to worry about the chirps that independence was allowing them to not schedule any top competition.
Or so we thought.
Ohio State is still a national championship contender, and Notre Dame does have two wins over currently ranked teams, with Duke and USC both hanging on inside the AP Poll’s top 25. Louisville is comfortably ranked, sitting at 6–1 and contending for the ACC title, so neither loss is a ranked loss. But with Clemson not receiving votes and both the Blue Devils and the Trojans more likely than not to finish the season unranked by the CFP committee, there is a real possibility Notre Dame will end the year 10–2 without a ranked win to its name. Will anyone notice? I’m not sure. But in case they do, let’s make something clear.
The teams Notre Dame beats end up with worse rankings because they played Notre Dame.
Had Duke and USC played East Carolina and San Diego State rather than hosting and visiting the Fighting Irish, each would be ranked multiple spots higher, with USC likely in the top 15 and Duke presumably somewhere around 17th, where UNC currently sits with an identical record to its rival and a worse conference loss. USC would still be called a playoff contender. Duke would have a path. Each team took a swing, obligatorily or not, at a marquee nonconference opponent, and each lost, and each is receiving the dividend for that experience. It is functionally nearly impossible for Notre Dame to beat a top-five team before the playoff, because any team that loses in the regular season receives a punishment in the rankings.
Isn’t this the same for power conference members? Not exactly. Last year, TCU made the playoff without playing anyone who entered the postseason ranked better than 9th. In 2019, Clemson made the playoff without playing anyone who entered the postseason ranked better than 24th. That 24th-ranked team, Virginia, would not have remained ranked had the loss come in the regular season, either. The committee tends to hold teams steady after conference championship losses so long as they lost to a higher-ranked opponent. This sounds reasonable. It’s also a major departure from regular season protocol.
Over the last five non-Covid seasons, here’s the ranking of the highest-ranked opponent each Power Five champion was structurally guaranteed to play, either in their conference championship or in intradivision competition:
| SEC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | ACC | |
| 2022 | 6th | 4th | 9th | 10th | 13th |
| 2021 | 3rd | 6th | 9th | 14th | 17th |
| 2019 | 5th | 8th | 7th | 11th | 24th |
| 2018 | 5th | 7th | 15th | 13th | 20th |
| 2017 | 7th | 6th | 15th | 13th | 10th |
If you aren’t in the Big Ten or the SEC, it’s nearly impossible to enter the playoff with a top-five win. Even in those leagues, it’s not probable. There’s a perception that Notre Dame’s independence can give it a lower ceiling of competition, but that perception has two major flaws: First, the data doesn’t back it up. It’s very possible to win a Power Five conference title without facing a great team, as champions of the Big 12, Pac-12, and ACC have repeatedly shown us. Second, it views Notre Dame individually and other conferences as units. Of course most Power Five conferences end up with at least one top-five team. That’s how this whole thing works. Teams’ final rankings aren’t decided so much by how good they are as by what their record is and whether, circularly, they won a Power Five conference title. Someone has to win each title, and odds are sky-high that whoever does will have a great record, whether they’re a great team or not.
This isn’t to say that Notre Dame has a great schedule year in and year out. It isn’t to say that Notre Dame is a great team, this year or any other in recent memory. Notre Dame certainly hasn’t been in the habit of beating top-five competition for the last thirty years. But every now and then, it’s useful to revisit the schedule question, because it’s one of the independence haters’ biggest gripes. The way college football teams are ranked creates illusions. Just because there’s a top-ten team in every Power Five conference championship doesn’t mean that team is one of the ten best.
Jack Swarbrick’s CBA
We’ve been critical in this space of Jack Swarbrick’s views on NIL, so we wanted to address his comments last week in Washington, D.C. suggesting collective bargaining as a solution to schools’ issues with NIL.
Swarbrick’s exact quotes, or at least those reported by Yahoo Sports, were these:
“It’s a fairly radical notion, but if we could find a way to reach binding agreements with our student-athletes, most of this goes away. We don’t have the mechanism to [collectively bargain] without them becoming employees. It would require a new mechanism that would recognize the rights of student-athletes to negotiate for the terms and conditions of their participation as athletes without being employees. I think it’s worth considering.”
“It would require a piece of legislation that recognizes the rights of students who are athletes to enter into binding agreements with something. There is a challengre here. Are they bargaining with the NCAA or the conference? It can’t be school by school. You need some competitive equity.”
I don’t have a law degree, but my impression is that what Swabrick is requesting from Congress here, tentatively, is a carveout in which college athletes don’t have to become employees—something about which Swarbrick has previously expressed concerns due to potential violations of overtime laws—while still enabling some uniform rulemaking. Again, I don’t have a law degree, but it sounds like the general idea here is for college sports to get a similar exemption to the one Congress created to allow Major League Baseball owners to pay their minor leaguers less than minimum wage.
For a third time, I don’t have a law degree, and Swarbrick not only has one but has a lot of legal experience. Questions I’d like to ask, though, are:
- My impression is that this is a proposed solution to the employment question—the issue where athletes are making universities, conferences, and the NCAA (among others) money through what’s effectively their labor. Why does collective bargaining specifically need to be the carveout here? My impression is that it’s to allow college athletes to secure guarantees about healthcare and perhaps TV revenue distribution, but I’m not confident about that. What am I missing?
- How widely would this apply across college sports? Would this apply to Division III field hockey and Division I football in the same manner?
- Why is competitive equity necessary? If it’s necessary, how far should it extend? Duke and Boston College are in the same conference, but their basketball programs enjoy vastly different financial support.
We don’t share this to support or oppose the suggestion. I clearly don’t understand it well enough to have much of a stance, and when this website covers questions of NIL and the transfer portal and student-athlete employment, Joe usually does the coverage, not me. Rather, we share this because last week we were very critical of Swarbrick’s previous stances on payments to college athletes. This proposal, more than anything, gives us a little more faith that Swarbrick’s coming at this from a good place. My impression remains that Swarbrick is concerned about “the character of college sports,” or some phrasing of that ilk, but this indicates his legal concerns are a bigger portion of the pie than I previously realized. For a fourth time, I am not a lawyer, so I’ll defer to him on those concerns. Perhaps, too, his views are evolving.
Quick(er) Hitters
Notre Dame’s 2024–25 MTE (that somehow stands for “nonconference tournament in November or December”) is officially the one in San Diego involving Purdue, Arkansas, and BYU. It’ll be played the week of Thanksgiving and is sponsored by Rady Children’s Hospital.
The football program received a commitment last week from four-star tight end James Flanigan, out of Green Bay. Flanigan’s commitment leaves Notre Dame’s 2025 class ranked third nationally, though it’s early and the average recruit rating is only 14th-best in the land.
If you missed it, Irish Illustrated’s Tim O’Malley evidently coaches Marcus Freeman’s son in flag football, and Freeman had some questions on Monday about O’Malley’s play calling in this weekend’s championships.
This Week
Pitt beat Louisville and Louisville beat Notre Dame, so there is certainly a world where Notre Dame loses Saturday’s football game. Movelor has the Panthers as the 65th-best team in the FBS and the ninth-best in the ACC. ESPN’s FPI and SP+ have them 56th/8th and 47th/7th. We’re looking at a team who’s probably a little better than NC State, even if they’re 2–5 overall. Pitt is better defensively than offensively, and their defense is more efficient against the run than the pass. Their win over Louisville featured a number of big passing plays and a 3–0 win in the turnover battle. Old friend C’Bo Flemister helps lead the rushing attack.
Notre Dame should be fine against Pitt so long as Notre Dame can play its game, but it’s worth remembering that margin matters, even if the playoff is not a legitimate possibility (the odds dropped from 1-in-200 to 1-in-250 with this weekend’s results). The difference between the Peach Bowl and the ReliaQuest Bowl is a big one. So, covering what’s currently a 20.5-point spread would be advantageous in getting the Irish to finish inside the top ten and secure that New Year’s Six spot. Maybe, just maybe, it’d also help get those playoff odds a little closer to 1-in-100. Root for chaos, and root for Duke to win the ACC.
The men’s soccer team beat Michigan last week and tied Wake Forest in Winston-Salem, clinching first place in the ACC Coastal and likely first place in the entire ACC. They’re up to fifth in the coaches poll ahead of the regular season finale on Friday night at home against Pitt. Pitt is ranked 20th and is .500 in ACC play. Daniel Russo had the goal for the Irish against Wake off an Ethan O’Brien free kick.
Notre Dame women’s soccer tied third-ranked UNC last week and beat NC State. The Irish are ranked eleventh in the country and sit in third place in the ACC, one point ahead of UNC and two points behind Clemson. Clemson visits South Bend tomorrow night. With a win, Notre Dame gets the second seed in the ACC Championships. Clemson is ranked eighth nationally. The game will kick off on ACC Network at 8:00 PM Eastern.
The volleyball team lost to both Virginia Tech and Wake Forest on its road trip, dropping to 4–6 in the ACC and 85th in the RPI. The Irish host Miami and Florida State this weekend. Neither is ranked, but FSU is tied for the ACC lead and Miami is in fifth place in the conference at 7–3.
The hockey team split with Boston University, winning the opener 4–1 and losing the second leg of the series 8–2. They’re now 2–3 in the early nonconference season, and they’ll look to get to 4–3 as they host Mercyhurst for a pair tomorrow and Friday night. Mercyhurst is 0–1–2 so far and is not receiving votes in the poll of record.
Notre Dame’s cross country teams are in action on Friday morning at the ACC Championship in Tallahassee. Going by the coaches poll, Notre Dame is expected to finish second in the women’s race and third in the men’s.
The swimming and diving teams swept Penn State and Pitt last weekend, and Chris Guiliano was named the ACC Swimmer of the Week after winning all seven of his events (three individual, four relays) and setting the fastest 100 free time in college swimming so far this season. The teams are off this weekend.
The golf teams finished 3rd (men) and 4th (women) at St. Andrews in a meet with Vanderbilt, UNC, and Georgetown. I believe that wraps up their fall season.
Chase Thompson made a run to the ITA Regionals quarterfinals this weekend in Ann Arbor, while Sebastian Dominko reached the semifinals at the ITF Future tournament in Las Vegas. I don’t believe the women’s tennis team was in action, but they’re at TCU this weekend for an invitational.
The fencing season begins in Orlando this weekend at the October North American Cup, a USA Fencing event in Orlando.
