My apologies to any The Barking Crow fans I’ve misled about Burnley’s Europa League chances. It turns out I forgot a major piece of how teams qualify from the Premier League. In light of what has been learned in the last hour, it also turns out that Burnley, after a ROAD WIN today (a thrilling pillaging of London), is very alive for a Europa League spot, and could even make it in a universe in which Man City wins its appeal.
Let’s dig in.
First of all, today’s victory: The Burnleys did what we like them to do—by which I mean they scored a goal and then didn’t allow any goals because I’m assuming they parked the bus. Jay Rodriguez must be healthy, because I saw on Burnley’s Instagram account that he was the guy who scored. Great news all around.
Now, how Europa League qualifying works: I’d been under the impression that the fifth-place team in the EPL goes to the Europa League unless one of the top four is banned from European competition by UEFA, in which case the sixth-place team goes. This impression was not incorrect. I just missed a part.
It turns out that in addition to the fifth-place (sixth, if Man City loses the appeal) team going to the Europa League, the EFL Cup and FA Cup champions each get a bid, unless they’re already going to the Europa League or they’ve accidentally qualified for the Champions League and sabotaged their Europa League chances. Man City won the EFL Cup, so now the sixth-place (seventh, if Man City loses the appeal) team gets the Europa League spot formerly set aside for the EFL Cup champion. The FA Cup is ongoing, with Man City, Chelsea (in third in the EPL), Man U (in fifth in the EPL), and Arsenal (duking it out with Burnley for a top-seven-or-eight spot) remaining. As you may have guessed, if Man City, Man U, or Chelsea wins, the seventh-place (eighth, if Man City loses the appeal) team gets the Europa League spot formerly set aside for the FA Cup champion. Similarly, if Arsenal wins and finishes in sixth or higher (seventh or higher, if Man City loses the appeal), there’s still another spot available. Put more clearly: If Man City wins the appeal and Arsenal does not win the FA Cup, teams 5-7 in the standings make the Europa League. If Man City loses the appeal and Arsenal does not win the FA Cup, teams 6-8 in the standings make the Europa League. If Arsenal wins the FA Cup, they make the Europa League alongside the two highest teams in the standings not going to the Champions League and not banned from European play.
In short, Burnley does not have to finish in sixth and hope on Man City losing the appeal to make the Europa League. Burnley could finish as low as eighth and still make it. And where are the Burnleys right now? Ninth. Probably tenth after Tottenham plays tomorrow. But only three points back of sixth!
From what I can tell, Burnley’s chances of making the 2020-21 Europa League are now roughly 10% even if Man City wins the appeal, and closer to 25% if Man City loses it. The plot twist of all plot twists for those of us hoping for our lads to make footie’s equivalent of the NIT.
What a time to be alive.
