It’s the Round of 16 finale. The finale of finales that aren’t finales but are finales for, you know, probably Ryan Blaney. Here’s what’s up:
Where It Is:
Bristol. Fun place, Bristol. Short, fast, high-banked, chaotic. Right over there by the Tennessee/Virginia line. Not sure which side it’s on. Ok, I looked. It’s Tennessee. That’s what I thought, but you never know when Virginia’s gonna try to grab it to distract from that weird island-ish part of the state that should be part of Maryland or Delaware.
When It Is:
Looks like it starts around 6:30 PM Central. Could be any moment, though.
What It Is:
The last race in the NASCAR Playoffs’ Round of 16, after which the bottom four in the standings are eliminated (from the playoffs—they still get to exist, and they even drive in the rest of the races).
How to Watch:
NBCSN, which I have now! I think. This is gonna be disappointing if I don’t have it. Roommate wanted to watch Notre Dame and I think I picked up some collateral NASCAR and Burnley.
Standings Coming In:
Kevin Harvick won at Darlington, so he’s locked into the Round of 12. Brad Keselowski won at Richmond, so he’s locked into the Round of 12. Denny Hamlin’s got enough points that he’s mathematically locked into the Round of 12. So we’re putting them at the top of the standings, which really just means we’re putting Keselowski up top because Hamlin and Harvick were already there.
1. Kevin Harvick (143 points, 1 Round of 16 win)
2. Brad Keselowski (112 points, 1 Round of 16 win)
3. Denny Hamlin (122 points)
4. Joey Logano (109 points)
5. Martin Truex, Jr (96 points)
6. Austin Dillon (94 points)
7. Chase Elliott (86 points)
8. Alex Bowman (85 points)
9. Kyle Busch (76 points)
10. Aric Almirola (65 points)
11. Kurt Busch (65 points)
12. Clint Bowyer (61 points)
***CUT LINE***
13. William Byron (58 points)
14. Cole Custer (53 points)
15. Matt DiBenedetto (36 points)
16. Ryan Blaney (34 points)
Who’s Under Pressure:
Everyone under Logano, really, and I’d imagine there’s at least some fear in the back of the mind of someone in Logano’s camp. There are some clear tiers, of course: Logano; Truex/Dillon; Elliott/Bowman; Ky Busch; Almirola/Kurt Busch; Bowyer/Byron; Custer; DiBenedetto/Blaney. There are also some expectation tiers: Logano/Elliott/Truex; Kyle Busch; Blaney/Bowman; everyone else. But in a binary sense, everyone’s under pressure. Even the tires! Ha. Sorry.
Who’s the Favorite:
I’m seeing Hamlin and Elliott both listed at +450. Elliott won this year’s All-Star Race at Bristol. I’m seeing Kyle Busch and Keselowski both at +600. Keselowski won the regular season race at Bristol. I’m seeing Logano at +700, Harvick and Blaney at +800 (Blaney’s got some desperation—gonna be hard for him to advance on points alone), Truex at +1800, and then we start mixing in non-playoff drivers.
So: Hamlin and Elliott are the favorites, but all the #PenskeBoys are possibilities, Harvick’s still having the year he’s having, and some of Newton’s laws state that Kyle Busch should eventually have a good result this season.
Any Beef?
Truex and Elliott probably still have some from two weeks ago. That’s our most recent involving playoff drivers. Jimmie Johnson might still be upset with Bubba Wallace for driving him into the wall last weekend, but that seems, from appearances, like the kind of thing that was maybe handled off the track. Bristol can bring out the beef in people, though. Which brings us to…
How Should NASCAR Rig It? Slash What Does NASCAR Want to Happen?
NASCAR would do well to have Blaney in the middle of things this week. He’s handsome. He’s a little sulky sometimes. He’s kind of a generic-brand Chase Elliott. Having him up front alongside Elliott in a young-guns-having-a-moment race would be exciting, especially with Blaney having been snakebit at Darlington and Richmond.
But we can’t have too many young guns. And we’ve got the perfect villain to make things go wrong.
No, we don’t want Truex causing problems with Elliott. Well, we do—that’d be great—but we don’t need it for this narrative. It would only add to it, though, so you know what? Let’s mix it in.
We do want Truex causing problems with Elliott, but what we really want is Joey Logano doing something loathsome. I’m talking wrecking-his-teammate-and-possibly-doing-it-intentionally loathsome. Logano needs to be the guy who takes out Blaney. And Blaney needs to seethe. While Elliott then wrecks Truex to win it and we get one attempted pit road fight and one where they’re not going to fight but Blaney’s gonna be checking how long he’s signed by Penske.
Giddyup.
