Gelo is live again.
Now in technically its third year (it made a brief debut in 2021), our goal-based elo model (that’s where the “Gelo” name comes from) is predicting hockey results. You can check it out here, and you can read how it works in this post from last year.
We didn’t update the model this year, so we’re rolling with last year’s, which was…fine. It was behind betting markets on the Avalanche, but it had a few successes in the earlier-going. Is this our strongest model? No. But if you’re looking for Stanley Cup probabilities, this is serviceable, and in an intriguing twist we discovered yesterday, it’s very close to betting markets when it comes to futures. This is a mixed bag—we like betting futures, and our model’s correlation with odds makes it harder to find value, real or deceiving—but it’s probably a good sign, even if futures markets are nowhere near as efficient as single-game markets in sports.
We’ll continue including NHL futures in our daily best bets, and we’ll be using Gelo as a reference for plenty of other content. Playoff hockey is among the best things in sports, and this helps us be more a part of it. We’re excited.
