Mondays have been quiet of late for college hoops, but tonight, get ready for some volume. NC State is going to Charlottesville, and there’s a whole lot of NIT at stake.
NC State and Virginia are in similar positions in NIT-Land. Neither make an appearance in our latest NIT Bracketology, but both have about a one-in-three chance of making the final field. It’s dangerous for NIT contenders to make too strong a case too early: teams that get aggressive in January often find themselves suddenly needing to backpedal come March. So, it’s not surprising that Virginia pumped the brakes on their descent Saturday night in Atlanta, just as it isn’t surprising that NC State hasn’t done anything desperate on the year.
That lack of desperation is one of the most impressive things about NC State. For the most part, they’ve won at home and lost on the road, with one bad home loss (Georgia Tech) and a couple wins they might wish they could get rid of (home against Wisconsin, at UNC-Greensboro) given how those opponents have climbed. Overall, it’s a very solid NIT résumé: mediocre non-conference scheduling, only two good wins, only one bad loss. Now, clearly, it hasn’t been enough to put them in the realm of, say, Xavier, but they’re right there entering an advantageous stretch. Beginning tonight, the Wolfpack play six games against what will likely turn out to be three Quadrant I opponents and three Quadrant II opponents. They might not have the thermostat where they want it, but their hand’s on the dial, and going 2-4 over these next six, or possibly even 3-3, depending how they do it, figures to be enough to boost them back into the NIT driver’s seat.
What to watch for tonight, then? Well, this is clearly one NC State doesn’t want to win, and one Virginia can get away with winning, so the expected result is clear. What matters is how that result transpires. If UVA chokes out Markell Johnson & Co., it might be fine for NC State, but it could be disastrous for Tony Bennett, who could use a nice, close game in this one to show his team, though capable, isn’t quite there yet. Look for this to become a competition of who can play sloppier basketball, with both teams missing three’s at a high rate and Virginia struggling to maintain possession.
Exciting times in the ACC.
