Friday NITe Lites: This Evening’s NIT-Impacting Action

The NIT is a mere 18 days away, or the same number of days as there are teams left in the NIT at about 11:00 PM on that first Wednesday night. Here’s what’s happening this evening, from the Save Mart Center to the Cajundome:

Mountain West

• 9:30 PM EST: Air Force @ UNLV (CBSSN)
• 11:00 PM EST: Nevada @ Fresno State (FS1)

We begin in the broader Pacific region, where Nevada’s trip across the mountains to Fresno is our Game of the NITe. Steve Alford hasn’t made an NIT since 2011, and his Wolf Pack aren’t in line this year (I have to check every time which of Nevada/NC State has the space and which treats Wolfpack as one word), but they aren’t far off. With three Q3 games between Nevada and the Mountain West Tournament, a little 1–2 finish should have them in business.

Elsewhere, UNLV tries to do the thing that is both necessary and naturally hard for every team on the NIT’s bottom bubble: Stack wins.

Big East

• 7:00 PM EST: Xavier @ Seton Hall (FS1)

The defending national champions go to Newark, where the Pirates are just trying to hold the line. Seton Hall’s in the sweet spot right now, seeded but not on the top bubble, and they could probably stand to win one like this, especially with Xavier sliding in the absence of Zach Freemantle. (It’s gonna take more than that to get back here, Swordsmen…)

Nice game for the dinner hour. Take a date to Outback and sit at the bar.

Atlantic 10

• 7:00 PM EST: Richmond @ VCU (ESPN2)

This rivalry probably has a name, but for our purposes? Let’s call it The Crosstown Caper™, in which Richmond is trying to be the caperer, stealing VCU’s NIT ambitions as the Rams hold a tenuous grip on both the A-10 lead and a seat in at-large territory.

Sun Belt

• 7:00 PM EST: Marshall @ Old Dominion (ESPN+)
• 8:00 PM EST: Southern Miss @ Texas State (ESPN+)
• 8:00 PM EST: Georgia State @ James Madison (ESPN+)
• 9:00 PM EST: South Alabama @ Louisiana (ESPN2)

Here’s the situation in the Sun:

Marshall and Southern Miss are tied for the league lead, Louisiana’s a game back, and tonight’s the regular season finale. Marshall holds the tiebreaker over Southern Miss, having won head-to-head in Huntington back in January. Louisiana holds the three-way tiebreaker over Marshall and Southern Miss, having split with Southern Miss and beaten Marshall in Lafayette.

So:

• Marshall’s the champ with a win.
• Southern Miss is the champ with a win and a Marshall loss.
• Louisiana’s the champ with a win and losses by both Southern Miss and Marshall.
• Marshall’s the champ if all three of those teams lose.

Adding further intrigue, Marshall’s in NIT at-large territory and Southern Miss and Louisiana are both hanging around the bubble, with James Madison close enough to bear mentioning, especially because JMU’s the kind of team that can beat the pants off people, which is good for KenPom (which is recency-biased) and NET (which is not recency-biased but does care more about margin than the NCAA admits). JMU fans, you are fully licensed to cheer for bloodshed tonight. You want to win by 50. Marshall and Southern Miss and Louisiana fans? Whatever it takes. No easy games for you three. All dangerous.

ASUN

• 7:00 PM EST: Queens @ Liberty (ESPN+)
• 8:00 PM EST: Kennesaw State @ Central Arkansas (ESPN+)

More scenarios! These are simpler.

Liberty is in NIT at-large territory, but they’re tied with Kennesaw State and don’t hold the tiebreaker as the ASUN plays its finales tonight as well (not the Atlantic Sun anymore, the ASUN, don’t ask why). Because Liberty’s the ASUN Tournament favorite either way, a Liberty win coupled with a Kennesaw State loss would help reduce the likeliest number of NIT automatic bids, opening up an at-large spot. So, if you’re a fan of an NIT bubbler, you unfortunately might want to cheer for the Owls to lose tonight. Tell yourself it’s about Scottie Pippen. Do we still like him? He went off the deep end a little, didn’t he. But not…hmm this is risky…not problematically?

Let’s move on.

MAAC

• 7:00 PM EST: Iona @ Mount St. Mary’s (ESPN+)

Pitino’s Peeps keep marching along. Two-game lead right now, but always worth playing for seeding, especially because it’s going to take a bad loss to backdoor an NIT appearance and a chance to cross that biggest accomplishment off the to-do list.

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That’s it for toNITe as far as you and I are concerned. Not a bad little Friday. Enjoy it. Get a Bloomin’ Onion and the fries.