I’ve mentioned a few times that Iowa’s NIT dream is not yet dead. Entering yesterday, they were only eight or nine seed lines above the projected field. Assuming one dropped seed line from the loss at Indiana, that means they probably need seven seed lines’ worth of unexpected losses from here out to get to the bubble, and the “unexpected” there is important, because the model our bracketology runs on already has Iowa losing three more regular season games before falling in the Big Ten semifinals in their median simulation.
So how do the Hawkeyes pull it off?
It starts with losing the games they’re expected to lose.
Now, for our model, this isn’t three specific regular season games. It’s an aggregately assembled three games—in all the simulations, with all the possible combinations of wins and losses, three losses pops up the most often.
But for the purposes of a roadmap, let’s focus on three Iowa’s relatively likely to lose. They’re all road games. They’re all against Big Ten contenders (Bigtenders, as they are known). Wisconsin. Ohio State. Michigan.
This is the starting point. Win one of those, and Iowa has a real problem.
Beyond there, though, there are five regular season games, plus the conference tournament. Generally speaking, the worst of losses in powerconferenceland can only drop a team two or three seed lines. Iowa’s still-postponed game against Nebraska in Iowa City would be among the worst of those losses. There are few losses in powerconferencelands worse than Nebraska at home. Lose that, and Iowa’s approaching the NITuation. Win that, and Iowa probably has to find three more games to lose out of the other four (home against Rutgers, at Michigan State, home against Penn State, home against Wisconsin), and that’s just to get close. Even that doesn’t put them in.
An added benefit of losing that hypothetical Nebraska game is that by opening the door for itself to win more, Iowa could still earn something like a five-seed in the conference tournament, which could earn it a date in its opener with a team trying to make the NIT from the bottom, like Michigan State or Northwestern, rather than a top-bubble team like Maryland, to whom losing would elicit more of a shrug from committees than raised eyebrows and an alarmed exchange of glances.
We also need to mention that the earlier Iowa exits the Big Ten tournament, the fewer good wins it will accumulate. In the current median simulation, the Hawkeyes are getting one good win and one fine win before their semifinal exit. Eliminate those wins, and eliminate the good loss in the semi, and more seed lines get shed.
To sum this all up, Iowa really needs to play and lose to Nebraska. If they don’t do that, they might have to lose out besides the Nebraska game. If they do do that, they could stand to lose another regular season game, and then it’s essential that they exit the Big Ten Tournament immediately. This is thinking three seed lines for the Nebraska loss, one seed line from the additional unexpected loss, one seed line from a bad Big Ten Tournament loss, and two seed lines from missed expected wins later in the tournament.
It’s a narrow chance. But it’s a chance.
Other notes for today:
- Boise State lost in Reno again, absolutely cleaning up this weekend. Boise State’s now thickly in the projected field. Curious whether Nevada will start appearing in the NITuation. The Mountain West offices were probably a happy spot this morning.
- Drake lost to Valpo, and lost somewhat badly. This was kind of inevitable, because Drake is merely solid and not great, and solid-not-great teams will eventually acquire an atrocious loss if they play a Missouri Valley Conference schedule. Still, they’ll sink when we next run our model, likely into our grasp. Welcome!
- Wichita State dodged a bullet, escaping Temple at Charles Koch Arena. Not the first time someone…ehh I don’t have a punchline for this one.
- Kansas is out of the AP Poll, but they’re still in a bad position for making the NIT. Need to lose at home to Oklahoma State tonight, and then need to do a whole lot more. But they do have a chance! If Iowa has a chance, Kansas definitely has a chance.
- Maryland’s got a home date with Ohio State. Winning is not advised.
- BYU hosts Gonzaga. Smiling, with the NIT on the mind, Cosmo and Friends lie down in front of the steamroller. A rollicking hymn plays over the speakers. They’re going home.
- SMU’s in danger, playing a bad East Carolina team in Greenville. Fun fact about Greenville: I always thought it was the one in South Carolina, which made me brutally confused about why the school was called East Carolina. Turns out there’s one in North Carolina too!
- After a real bastard of a start to the year, Wes Miller’s got UNC-Greensboro in SoCon contention, having won seven straight, none more impressive than an…eight-point victory over .500-in-conference Chattanooga. Hmm. Well, the Spartans play Furman early this evening, so that’ll be fun for one of them.
- UNC hosts Miami. The Tar Heels let passion get the best of them on Saturday. This is a great chance to make up for that mistake.
