We’re one more round into the FCS Playoffs, and the MVFC has flexed its muscle. The league may have put just three teams into the field, but South Dakota State and North Dakota State are, after second-round dominance and some Sacramento State struggles, the clear teams to beat. Here’s how Movelor lines the remaining eight up now:
| Team | Movelor |
| South Dakota State | 20.5 |
| North Dakota State | 18.1 |
| Sacramento State | 15.9 |
| Montana State | 15.2 |
| Incarnate Word | 13.3 |
| William & Mary | 6.0 |
| Samford | 4.9 |
| Holy Cross | 2.8 |
Sacramento State’s fade was the most notable, the Hornets needing all four quarters to get past visiting Richmond, but Incarnate Word struggled too, barely withstanding a furious Furman comeback in San Antonio to stay alive. Each of them dipped, while all four of SDSU, NDSU, William & Mary, and Holy Cross surged, winning not only comfortably, but more comfortably than expected. Montana State and Samford were each right around where the line sat coming in. No change for them.
What does this do to the big-picture probabilities? Let’s see:
| Team | Semifinals | Championship | Champion |
| South Dakota State | 91.9% | 66.9% | 38.4% |
| North Dakota State | 85.8% | 45.6% | 22.5% |
| Sacramento State | 64.2% | 36.8% | 16.9% |
| Montana State | 79.0% | 27.0% | 13.3% |
| Incarnate Word | 35.8% | 14.1% | 6.3% |
| William & Mary | 21.0% | 4.3% | 1.3% |
| Samford | 14.2% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| Holy Cross | 8.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
South Dakota State is up from last week, even with favorites sweeping across the board, but North Dakota State’s surge has the Bison the obvious second candidate. Barring a UIW win in California this weekend, NDSU will have to play on the road before this is over, but even with that: They’re the second-best team, and we would imagine they’re capable of giving their rivals a game. Montana State, meanwhile, continues to take care of business, and beat a good Weber State, but it’s hard to see a world where they win in Brookings, even if they recently blew out Montana just like NDSU did.
Much of that is getting ahead of ourselves, though.
This weekend, Movelor’s got North Dakota State favored by 16.2 against Samford, a line I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vegas put closer to 21. In late-night action on Friday, Montana State’s a 12.2-point Movelor favorite over William & Mary, while Sacramento State’s a mere 5.6-point favorite over Incarnate Word (in what does figure to be the weekend’s best game). Come Saturday, South Dakota State’s favored by 20.7 at home against Holy Cross even after the Saders beat up New Hampshire in the Worcester rain. There’s just a big gap there right now. Movelor’s got South Dakota State right in between Maryland and Wake Forest, respectable Power Five teams. It’s a different level of play.
