The FCS Playoffs are underway, and while we never got around to doing bracketology for them this year, we do have Movelor ratings for every FCS team, so last night we built out a simulator and ran the simulations hot, meaning we let ratings change with results the same way they do in our FBS college football model.
It’s a compelling FCS season, with North Dakota State’s down year and James Madison’s departure for the FBS opening the door to new powers. South Dakota State is the team to beat, but Sacramento State and Montana State were dominant in the Big Sky, and between Montana and Weber State, that league has two wild cards who could make a lot of noise. The Bison, as you’d expect, are still good as well, and Incarnate Word is on the rise, viewed by Movelor as only 3.7 points worse than the FCS’s best. It’s a regionally dominated scene—the CAA is badly down with the Dukes gone, so all contenders are in the northwest quadrant of the country—but college football is a regionally dominated sport by nature, and a scenario in which fellow 8-0 conference foes Sacramento State and Montana State finally meet in the playoff or Montana gets a shot at revenge against the Bobcats or NDSU and SDSU square off for the title is a heck of a script.
At the same time, though, this highlights the weaknesses of a 24-team playoff system. For one thing, big leagues can’t have conference championships. Both Sacramento State and Montana State finished 11-0. For another, we aren’t going to see many title contenders this weekend, and those that we will see—Montana and Weber State—are heavy favorites. The only game expected to be close and expected to significantly affect the title is Idaho’s trip to Southeastern Louisiana, which is kind of like an FBS matchup between Washington and Baylor in terms of prestige.
Enough from me, though. Let’s look at the numbers. Here’s how Movelor views the 24 remaining teams, prior to today’s games:
| Team | Movelor |
| South Dakota State | 18.6 |
| Sacramento State | 17.6 |
| North Dakota State | 15.8 |
| Montana State | 15.4 |
| Montana | 15.0 |
| Incarnate Word | 14.9 |
| Weber State | 11.0 |
| Idaho | 7.6 |
| Samford | 4.9 |
| Furman | 4.2 |
| William & Mary | 3.3 |
| North Dakota | 3.1 |
| Richmond | 1.9 |
| Holy Cross | 0.9 |
| Southeast Missouri State | 0.1 |
| Southeastern Louisiana | -0.2 |
| Elon | -0.9 |
| New Hampshire | -4.3 |
| Gardner-Webb | -4.9 |
| Fordham | -5.0 |
| St. Francis (PA) | -5.3 |
| Delaware | -5.4 |
| Eastern Kentucky | -6.0 |
| Davidson | -19.1 |
And here’s where that gets us after 10,000 simulations:
| Team | Round of 16 | Quarterfinals | Semifinals | Championship | Champion |
| South Dakota State | 100.0% | 95.4% | 86.9% | 60.6% | 30.8% |
| Sacramento State | 100.0% | 90.1% | 60.6% | 39.4% | 21.5% |
| Montana State | 100.0% | 70.2% | 60.3% | 25.6% | 12.5% |
| North Dakota State | 100.0% | 61.7% | 49.1% | 23.3% | 12.1% |
| Incarnate Word | 100.0% | 81.9% | 33.0% | 17.2% | 8.9% |
| Montana | 88.2% | 36.6% | 25.3% | 11.5% | 6.6% |
| Weber State | 75.6% | 24.8% | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% |
| Idaho | 62.7% | 32.5% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| William & Mary | 100.0% | 74.8% | 16.5% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| Samford | 100.0% | 54.8% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Holy Cross | 100.0% | 67.5% | 8.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Furman | 70.4% | 13.7% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| North Dakota | 24.4% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Richmond | 94.7% | 9.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Southeastern Louisiana | 37.3% | 12.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Fordham | 40.1% | 12.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Delaware | 57.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elon | 29.6% | 4.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gardner-Webb | 45.0% | 11.9% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eastern Kentucky | 55.0% | 13.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| New Hampshire | 59.9% | 19.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Southeast Missouri State | 11.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| St. Francis (PA) | 42.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Davidson | 5.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
It’s the Jacks’ title to lose, but the field is the favorite. What a field it is.
