With one week left in the college football regular season, scenarios for who plays in what conference championship with which combinations of results are…mostly clear. There are two leagues with some obscurity. Here’s where every conference is at:
ACC: Clemson vs. UNC
This has been the case for a while now.
Big Ten: Ohio State or Michigan vs. Iowa or Purdue or Illinois
The East Division in the Big Ten is simple: One of Ohio State and Michigan is going to finish 9-0 in conference play, and it’s whoever wins their game. In the West…
The current West Division standings are as follows:
- Iowa: 5-3
- Purdue: 5-3
- Illinois: 4-4
- Wisconsin: 4-4
- Minnesota: 4-4
Those teams play the following games this weekend:
- Nebraska @ Iowa
- Purdue @ Indiana
- Illinois @ Northwestern
- Minnesota @ Wisconsin
Minnesota and Wisconsin cannot win any tiebreakers they can reach, and ultimately, it doesn’t change anything if they’re in the tiebreaker, because each has lost to both Illinois and Iowa, and Minnesota also lost to Purdue. So, there are eight combinations of results:
- Purdue wins, Iowa wins, Illinois wins: Iowa wins division by head-to-head over Purdue.
- Purdue wins, Iowa wins, Illinois loses: Iowa wins division by head-to-head over Purdue.
- Purdue wins, Iowa loses, Illinois wins: Purdue wins division outright.
- Purdue wins, Iowa loses, Illinois loses: Purdue wins division outright.
- Purdue loses, Iowa wins, Illinois wins: Iowa wins division outright.
- Purdue loses, Iowa wins, Illinois loses: Iowa wins division outright.
- Purdue loses, Iowa loses, Illinois wins: Illinois wins division by tiebreaker scenario outlined below.
- Purdue loses, Iowa loses, Illinois loses: Iowa wins division by head-to-head over Purdue and either Minnesota or Wisconsin.
There are two tiebreaker scenarios where four teams are tied at 5-4, and they each work out with Illinois winning the division.
In the first, Illinois is tied with Purdue, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Within the tie, Illinois holds a 2-1 record, Iowa holds a 2-1 record, Purdue holds a 1-2 record, and Wisconsin holds a 1-2 record. With Purdue and Wisconsin eliminated from the tie, per the Big Ten’s tiebreaker procedures, it goes to head-to-head between Illinois and Iowa, which then goes to Illinois, who beat Iowa.
In the second, Illinois is tied with Purdue, Iowa, and Minnesota. Within the tie, Illinois holds a 2-1 record, Purdue holds a 2-1 record, Iowa holds a 2-1 record, and Minnesota holds an 0-3 record. With Minnesota eliminated, the tiebreaker moves on to division record, where Illinois would be 5-1, Iowa would be 4-2, and Purdue is 4-2.
Overall, our model has the West Division probabilities as follows:
- Iowa: 85.1%
- Purdue: 11.0%
- Illinois: 3.9%
Big 12: TCU vs. Kansas State or Texas
This one is more straightforward. If Kansas State wins against Kansas, they finish 7-2, at least one game ahead of everyone not named TCU in the Big 12. If Kansas State loses, they finish 6-3.
If Kansas State loses to Kansas on Saturday and finishes 6-3, the Big 12 Championship matchup will depend on what Texas did against Baylor on Friday. If Texas loses, the Longhorns are among those at 5-4, and Kansas State still finishes alone in second place. If Texas wins, the Longhorns finish tied with Kansas State at 6-3. That tiebreaker would go to Texas, who beat Kansas State head-to-head.
Pac-12: USC vs. Oregon or Washington or Utah
This one isn’t terrible, but it’s lengthy enough that there are conflicting reports out there about it. USC finished conference play at 8-1 and is in the Pac-12 Championship no matter what. That much is clear. From there, the standings are currently as follows:
- Oregon: 7-1
- Utah: 6-2
- Washington: 6-2
And this weekend’s relevant games are:
- Oregon @ Oregon State
- Utah @ Colorado
- Washington @ Washington State
- UCLA @ Cal
How does UCLA figure into this? We’ll get to that. First…
Among the eight combinations of results from the three Oregon/Utah/Washington games, four include Oregon winning against Oregon State and making the championship outright. With that…
- IF Oregon wins: Oregon makes the championship.
- IF Oregon loses AND Utah loses AND Washington loses: Oregon makes the championship, still finishing alone with USC in the top two.
- IF Oregon loses AND Utah wins AND Washington loses: Oregon makes the championship through their direct head-to-head win over Utah.
- IF Oregon loses AND Utah loses AND Washington wins: Washington makes the championship through their direct head-to-head win over Oregon.
Now. The wild stuff.
If Oregon, Washington, and Utah all finish at 7-2 (through Oregon losing and both Washington and Utah winning), the Pac-12 tiebreakers dictate that the first comparison is direct head-to-head, but only if all three teams played one another. Because Washington did not play Utah, this is not an option, so we move on to the teams’ win percentage against all common conference opponents.
The six teams all three of these teams will have played are Colorado, Oregon State, Arizona, UCLA, Stanford, and Washington State. Of those, Washington and Utah both lost to UCLA, while Oregon would have lost to Oregon State in the relevant scenario. This makes all three teams 5-1 against common conference opponents, pushing us along to the next tiebreaker.
The next tiebreaker is each team’s “record against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings.” Since only Utah played USC, we move along. Since all three didn’t play one another, we move along. Here’s where UCLA comes in.
IF UCLA loses to Cal, this scenario will end with Oregon State alone in fifth place at 6-3. Since Oregon would have lost to Oregon State, they would be removed from the tiebreaker, and we would go through again with a tiebreaker between Washington and Utah. In this tiebreaker, Oregon would be the “highest placed common opponent,” and because Washington beat Oregon while Utah lost to Oregon, Washington would take the second spot in the championship.
IF UCLA beats Cal, this scenario will end with Oregon State and UCLA tied for fifth place at 6-3. Since the caveat for this scenario reads, “When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams,” our impression is that the trio’s matching 1-1 records against Oregon State and UCLA would propel us down further into the standings, but since all three beat all four of Washington State, Arizona, Stanford, and Colorado, no tie could be broken, and we would move on to the next tiebreaker, which is: “Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (ie, strength of conference schedule).” This boils down to the conference records of the team’s different opponents, those not common to all three teams. Oregon’s different opponents are Utah, Washington, and Cal, who in this scenario would have gone a combined 16-11 in conference play. Utah’s different opponents are USC, Oregon, and Arizona State, who in this scenario would have gone either 17-10 or 18-9 in conference play, depending what Arizona State does against Arizona. Washington’s different opponents are Arizona State, Oregon, and Cal, who in this scenario would have gone either 12-15 or 11-16 in conference play.
So.
If Utah beats Colorado, Oregon State beats Oregon, Washington beats Washington State, and UCLA beats Cal, I believe Utah makes the Pac-12 Championship. The probability of this happening is 13.1%. Not great, but far from zero. Utah, therefore, still has a chance.
SEC: Georgia vs. LSU
This one, like the ACC, was wrapped up prior to this weekend.
AAC: Cincinnati or Tulane or UCF or Houston @ Cincinnati or Tulane
UPDATE TO THE UPDATE: Evidently the AAC has said that UCF is in with a win. We’ll try to keep an eye out for that changing in the event they read their own tiebreakers or Tulane files a lawsuit on Saturday night.
UPDATE: The committee ranking UCF 22nd really changed this, but it isn’t entirely clear how, because in the AAC tiebreakers linked below, 7.5.2 and 7.5.3 contradict in scenarios where Cincinnati beats Tulane and UCF beats USF.
This is complicated.
Currently, the AAC standings are as follows:
- Cincinnati: 6-1
- Tulane: 6-1
- UCF: 5-2
- Houston: 5-2
Between these four, head-to-head results are as follows:
- Cincinnati plays Tulane on Friday
- UCF beat Cincinnati
- UCF beat Tulane
- Tulane beat Houston
Remaining games for these four are as follows:
- Tulane @ Cincinnati
- UCF @ South Florida
- Tulsa @ Houston
In scenarios in which Houston loses, things are simple. Any tie can be resolved with a direct head-to-head tiebreaker. In other scenarios, it’s dicey. Here are the eight combinations of results:
- Tulane wins, UCF wins, Tulsa wins: Tulane hosts, alone in first place; UCF is the visitor thanks to their win over Cincinnati.
- Tulane wins, UCF wins, Houston wins: Tulane hosts; the visitor is complicated and we’ll address it below.
- Tulane wins, South Florida wins, Tulsa wins: Tulane hosts; Cincinnati is the visitor, alone in second place.
- Tulane wins, South Florida wins, Houston wins: Tulane hosts; the visitor is complicated and we’ll address it below.
- Cincinnati wins, UCF wins, Tulsa wins: Cincinnati hosts, alone in first place; UCF is the visitor thanks to their win over Tulane.
- Cincinnati wins, UCF wins, Houston wins: Cincinnati hosts; the visitor is complicated and we’ll address it below.
- Cincinnati wins, South Florida wins, Tulsa wins: Cincinnati hosts; Tulane is the visitor, alone in second place.
- Cincinnati wins, South Florida wins, Houston wins: Cincinnati hosts; Tulane is the visitor thanks to their win over Houston.
There are three separate complicated ties, then. The first is UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston being tied at 6-2. The second is UCF, Tulane, and Houston being tied at 6-2. The third is Cincinnati and Houston being tied at 6-2.
The AAC’s tiebreakers (or our impression of what they are—we’re using a 2020 document because we can’t find anything more recent) are understandably geared towards getting the league the highest-ranked conference champion possible. This helps the AAC secure the Group of Five’s New Years Six bowl invitation. But it’s a pain in the ass for us. The way these work is basically to choose the highest-ranked team, but to use “a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe)” in certain instances where it’s unclear who’s ranked higher. In what instances would those be? Relevantly, one is an instance where “the highest-ranked of the tied teams in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings loses in the final weekend of regular season Conference play.” That will be the case with any of these ties, because UCF will assumedly be unranked tomorrow night after their loss to Navy on Saturday, and the loser of Cincinnati or Tulane will have, definitionally, lost.
So, we’re guessing at what these computer rankings will think, but our impression is that on the aggregate, they’re going to have Cincinnati and Tulane both ranked ahead of Houston in all scenarios. Whether that game’s loser is ranked ahead of UCF is another matter. UCF is behind the pair right now in all four, but the gap ranges from three spots (Cincinnati is 26th in Colley, UCF is 29th) to thirteen spots (Tulane is 21st in Billingsley, UCF is 34th) in those that have updated for this week (Anderson & Hester has yet to publish its update at the time this is being written). It’s a bit of a mess, and one unfortunate aspect of this is that the AAC could end up accidentally placing an unranked UCF in ahead of a ranked Tulane or Cincinnati. UCF is unlikely to climb back into the CFP rankings (that was a terrible loss to Navy) and Tulane and Cincinnati could conceivably stay in the rankings with a loss to the other (especially Tulane), but UCF might pass that game’s loser in the computer rankings, and…disaster ensues. We’ll see. We told our model Tulane and Cincinnati will hold on in these scenarios, but we’re unsure if they will, and unfortunately, the scenario where UCF and Houston both win is 70% likely, so this is very relevant unless the AAC has an alternate set of tiebreakers we don’t know about, the computers come through and leave the Cincy/Tulane loser ahead of UCF (on the aggregate), or the AAC is willing to change the rules on UCF on UCF’s way out the door.
Conference USA: North Texas or Western Kentucky @ UTSA
UTSA has clinched first place in Conference USA outright, sitting at 7-0 while UNT and WKU are each currently 5-2. North Texas hosts Rice on Saturday. Western Kentucky plays Florida Atlantic on the road. Here are the scenarios:
- If North Texas wins, North Texas plays in the championship, either by holding second place outright or through a head-to-head tiebreaker over Western Kentucky, whom North Texas beat.
- If North Texas loses AND Western Kentucky wins, Western Kentucky plays in the championship by holding second place outright.
- If North Texas loses AND Western Kentucky loses, North Texas plays in the championship thanks to their head-to-head victories over both WKU and FAU, each of whom would be 5-3 in this scenario, and therefore part of the tiebreaker.
So, WKU makes it with a win and a UNT loss. In all other scenarios, it’s the Mean Green.
MAC: Toledo vs. Ohio or Bowling Green or Buffalo
Toledo has clinched the West. In the East, the standings are as follows:
- Ohio: 6-1
- Bowling Green: 5-2
- Buffalo: 4-2
Buffalo’s game against Akron this weekend was postponed due to the blizzard and won’t be made up before the championship matchup is decided, if it’s made up at all.
If Ohio beats Bowling Green or if Buffalo loses to Kent State this week (Ohio hosts Bowling Green tomorrow, Buffalo hosts Kent State on Saturday), there is either no tie or the tie is straightforward. If Bowling Green and Buffalo both win, though, the MAC has said that they will use their “uneven number of games” tiebreakers. In this scenario (in which Ohio, Bowling Green, and Buffalo each have two conference losses), Buffalo would win the tiebreaker by way of having beaten Kent State head-to-head and thereby having the better record against the highest relevant common divisional opponent (all three beat Miami, Kent State beat both Bowling Green and Ohio).
So, scenarios as we understand them are as follows:
- If Ohio wins, Ohio wins the East.
- If Ohio loses AND Buffalo loses, Bowling Green wins the East.
- If Ohio loses AND Buffalo wins, Buffalo wins the East.
Mountain West: Fresno State @ Boise State
Boise State has clinched the Mountain Division outright, and while Fresno State could tie for first place in the West, they beat San Diego State—their potential tie-mate—head-to-head. Similarly, Fresno State could tie Boise State, but Boise won head-to-head in that matchup so Boise will host.
Sun Belt: Troy or South Alabama or Coastal Carolina @ Troy or South Alabama or Coastal Carolina
This one’s like the AAC, relying on the same computer rankings in the absence of teams in the CFP top 25. Unlike the AAC, there are divisions here, so the teams involved are straightforward and it’s just the location that could get complicated.
Coastal Carolina has clinched the East, but plays at James Madison this weekend, and with a win would land at 7-1 in conference play, potentially tying them with the West Division champion.
In the West, Troy and South Alabama are both also currently 6-1, and Troy holds the head-to-head advantage. Troy visits Arkansas State on Saturday. South Alabama hosts Old Dominion.
If Troy and South Alabama finish tied, Troy wins the West. If Coastal Carolina and the West Division champion are tied, the rankings come in. The way that works is as follows:
- If Coastal Carolina and/or the eventual West Division champion are ranked in this week’s CFP rankings (unlikely, but not impossible) and each wins this weekend, the higher-ranked team (or the ranked team, if there’s only one) will host.
- If Coastal Carolina and/or the eventual West Division champion are ranked in this week’s CFP rankings and both lose, or if both aren’t ranked in this week’s CFP rankings, the same four computer systems the AAC references will be brought in. Currently, Coastal Carolina holds the edge, and since James Madison outranks both Old Dominion and Arkansas State, we presume a loss by Coastal Carolina would be less damaging than losses by Troy and South Alabama. Meaning…we think Coastal Carolina hosts if there’s a tie.
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I think the Pac-12 tiebreaker’s the most fun. The AAC is the least fun, unless you hate the AAC, in which case it’s definitely the most fun because it could backfire in that league’s face and put Troy or Boise State into the Cotton Bowl.
