It’s a lighter one today, but—and this is an important but:
Sometimes that’s when we get the most going down.
Not tonight, probably (this is a really thin slate), but sometimes.
Here’s what we’re watching.
Game of the NITe
- 7:00 PM EST: Dayton @ Saint Louis (ESPN2)
There’s a lot on the table in the Arch Baron Cup. Dayton has a decent shot at an NIT at-large bid, but they’ll have to win loudly and make their loss quiet and late in the A-10 Tournament. Saint Louis has a terrible shot, but the A-10 has just enough weight to leave time to change that. Just enough weight. We cannot be too clear that it is hardly enough to leave us believing SLU has any sort of chance.
UNC, Wisconsin
- (vacant)
To be transparent, and to expand this a little, we would also like Arizona State to make our tournament and we would like Pitt to get the ACC an automatic bid. UNC and Wisconsin remain our priorities, though.
Anyway, no big games in this sphere for now. At ease.
Upper Bubble
- 11:00 PM EST: New Mexico @ Colorado State (FS1)
New Mexico can’t play their way into too much trouble tonight, but it wouldn’t be the worst idea to lose. They’re in the Sweet Spot, but they’re one of the Sweet Spot’s upper teams, and you just don’t want to mess around this time of year.
Lower Bubble
- 7:00 PM EST: East Carolina @ Tulane (ESPN+)
If Tulane’s the team of destiny we’ve oft suspected they are…
We’re listening, Tulane. And sending our hearts. They’re yours, after all.
Lower Bubble AND Auto-Bid Implications
- 6:00 PM EST: Akron @ Kent State (ESPNU)
- 6:00 PM EST: Toledo @ Ball State (CBSSN)
- 7:30 PM EST: Abilene Christian @ Sam Houston State (ESPN+)
- 8:00 PM EST: Stephen F. Austin @ Utah Valley (ESPN+)
The MAC and the WAC, as the prophets foretold.
The MAC situation is straightforward. Toledo wins the league with a win or a Kent State loss (or both). That puts them in the NIT if they don’t win the MAC Tournament. Kent State wins the league with a win and a Toledo loss. That takes away the at-large piece of the conversation for them as well.
At the moment, Kent State’s looking like it could get an auto-bid, while it’d be possible but tough for Toledo, likely requiring three blowouts followed by a close loss to the Flashes.
The WAC situation might be straightforward, but if it is, nobody is telling us. The WAC, and this has been giving us quite the headache, is using a special formula to seed its conference tournament. We’re sure the formula’s great, we’re not anti-formula, these mid-major and low-major leagues need to self-preserve. But. What’s still unclear to us is whether this formula also decides the league’s regular season champion. We don’t think it does, but we’ve struggled to find that in writing from the WAC. Work with the ASUN long enough and you learn not to leave a paper trail.
If it’s straightforward, Utah Valley’s already clinched the league title. If it’s kind of straightforward, Utah Valley clinches the league title with a win, a Sam Houston State loss, or by staying above Sam Houston State in the seeding formula in the event the two end up tied (they’re a game apart right now, UVU leads, and UVU won the only head-to-head matchup). If it isn’t straightforward, the only thing that matters is the formula, and I have yet to see anything certain about how it will play out. I am going to sleep so well tonight if Utah Valley wins (or if the WAC just gets its bracket out right away).
Just Auto-Bid Implications
Nothing here tonight. Might be done with this for the year. We’ll give it a day before we dust off the backspace key.
Really Low Bubble
- 9:00 PM EST: BYU vs. Portland (WCCN)
BYU’s path is pretty simple: Beat the hell out of Portland, beat the hell out of LMU, beat the hell out of Saint Mary’s, and lose close to Gonzaga, then cross their fingers ‘til they bleed. We will keep keeping an eye on them. Possible it isn’t that extreme, but that’s the read right now. Won’t count ‘em out yet with the KenPom what it is.
Conference Tournaments
Arch Madness:
- 1:00 PM EST: Bradley vs. Northern Iowa (ESPN+)
- 3:30 PM EST: Belmont vs. Indiana State (ESPN+)
- 7:00 PM EST: Drake vs. Murray State (ESPN+)
- 9:30 PM EST: Southern Illinois vs. Missouri State (ESPN+)
There’s a chance Bradley loses this game, which might be over by the time you read this. If Bradley does lose, they’re into the NIT, and that isn’t great for fans of NIT bubble teams. If Bradley wins, three possibilities remain: There’s the two-bid MVC, where Bradley and Drake both lose but Drake’s numbers stay good enough to make the cut. There’s the one-bid MVC, where Bradley loses and Drake misses (in one direction or the other) or Bradley wins the league tournament and Drake makes the NIT. There’s the zero-bid MVC, where Bradley wins the league tournament and Drake misses the NIT, likely by doing something like losing to Murray State.
I love the Missouri Valley lapel pins the broadcasters are wearing. St. Louis is great.
Ohio Valley Tournament:
- 8:00 PM EST: Morehead State vs. SEMO (ESPNU)
- 10:30 PM EST: Tennessee Tech vs. Tennessee Martin (ESPNU)
Auto-bid watch: Morehead State.
If Morehead State loses, they’re in the NIT. If Morehead State wins, fans hoping on them to win the OVC Tournament (and not take an automatic bid) want Tennessee Tech to win. Tennessee Tech’s worse on paper than UT-Martin.
WCC Tournament:
- 9:00 PM EST: BYU vs. Portland (WCCN)
- 11:30 PM EST: San Francisco vs. Pacific (WCCN)
We’ve addressed BYU, but to address the others: Santa Clara plays the San Francisco/Pacific winner, and Santa Clara is on the Lower Bubble, which means a loss could do them in but might not. The question, then, is whether bubble fans want Santa Clara to play Pacific—a likelier win but a worse possible loss—or San Francisco—a likelier loss but not as damaging, with the added risk of San Francisco rising back into the mix if the margin is huge and/or the Dons then beat Gonzaga. I don’t know the answer.
Big South Tournament:
- 12:00 PM EST: UNC Asheville vs. Charleston Southern (ESPN+)
- 2:30 PM EST: South Carolina Upstate vs. Gardner-Webb (ESPN+)
- 6:00 PM EST: Longwood vs. Campbell (ESPN+)
- 8:30 PM EST: Radford vs. Winthrop (ESPN+)
UNC Asheville already played and won, so no auto-bid here today. Gardner-Webb, Longwood, and Radford are the better teams in their games.
SoCon Tournament:
- 5:00 PM EST: Mercer vs. The Citadel (ESPN+)
- 7:30 PM EST: Chattanooga vs. VMI (ESPN+)
Just play-ins here. The Mercer/Citadel winner plays Furman, unless they reseed which I don’t think they do. Mercer’s better, NIT bubble fans want Furman to not take an automatic bid, NIT bubble fans want The Citadel to win.
CAA Tournament:
- 2:00 PM EST: Hampton vs. Monmouth
Credit to the CAA for reserving the arena for an extra day so their 13th-place team could play in the conference tournament.
Summit League Tournament:
- 7:00 PM EST: Denver vs. North Dakota (ESPN+)
- 9:30 PM EST: Kansas City vs. Omaha (ESPN+)
Oral Roberts plays the Denver/North Dakota winner. So you are all free to cheer for the Roos.
