1. Holy cow, what a win.
The Cubs have a long way to go if they want to contend in the NL Central, let alone in the National League. But they’re back to .500. That’s a thing about sweeps—they’re worth three times more than just winning a series, or three times more than just losing it (when the series is three games). That’s an obvious statement, but if you think about a season on a series-by-series basis, sweeps are enormously important.
I’ve given some space in here to what reasonable goals should be for the Cubs. Before the season, I wrote that a 14-12 or 15-11 mark in April would be a successful start. After…I think it was Friday’s loss to Atlanta, I revised that to just “don’t get swept.” I don’t know if we’re back to wanting 14-12 or 15-11, and I’m tempted to hope for the Cubs to just not get swept by the Brewers this weekend, with the bats still not great and Brandon Woodruff pitching on Sunday. But a series win would be nice, and would put 14-12 within attainable reach.
2. A lot of guts from Dan Winkler.
Winkler did not have a good outing, but he had a great outing, escaping a jam largely of his own creation in the 10th to set the Cubs up for a routine walk-off.
3. Trevor Williams got it done.
The six strikeouts with just one walk from Williams were nice. The eight hard-hit balls weren’t. Williams’s FIP is a lineup-churning 3.35. His xwOBA is a hold-on-tight .360. I don’t know what to expect from him going forward, but he was a bit of a lottery ticket/innings-eater pickup (a less expensive, lower-expectation, less-nostalgic Jake Arrieta), and so far he’s gotten wonderful results. Happy about that.
4. Kris Bryant’s already amassed one WAR. Almost.
Bryant’s up to 0.9 fWAR, which equates to just under nine fWAR over a season. In all likelihood, Bryant will end the year well below nine WAR, but what we’ve seen so far would be the best play of Bryant’s career if he were to sustain it over 162 games. That’s encouraging and exciting, both for him and the Cubs (and baseball—what a seemingly nice young man to have as a superstar).
5. Craig Kimbrel’s already amassed half a WAR.
0.5 fWAR from the closer.
Kimbrel’s on pace to throw 86 innings, which would be his most ever and his first 70+ inning season since 2011. That won’t last. He’ll need more rest, and the April off days have helped keep him on the mound. So this is probably more likely than Bryant’s to slow down. But it’s still worth appreciating how close to automatic Kimbrel’s been. Knock on wood for that (and for Bryant as well), but fun to see, and fun to see him having fun.
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Around the Division:
The Reds did lose that game we posted amidst yesterday, so the Cubs are suddenly tied for second place. Standings, with FanGraphs’s division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee (11-7, 57.9%)
T-2. Cincinnati (9-9, 16.6%)
T-2. Cubs (9-9, 11.6%)
4. St. Louis (8-10, 13.4%)
5. Pittsburgh (9-10, 0.5%)
There’s a clear favorite, and the Cubs play them this weekend.
Up Next:
The third three-game set with Milwaukee.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Prettiest day of the weekend. High around 60, wind blowing out at around ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Kyle Hendricks vs. Brett Anderson
The Opponent:
Anderson’s had great results so far this year, with 17 innings thrown and just a 2.65 ERA over three starts.
However.
Anderson’s FIP is 5.15 and his xwOBA is .377, meaning he’s been getting tagged and getting away with it, probably through his 87.8% left-on-base rate and his .222 BABIP. What’s more, his one unsuccessful start was the game where the Cubs took him deep three times in the fourth.
In other Brewers news, Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain are both still on the injured list, and I’ve seen nothing about when they might be activated, though I believe each could come back as soon as tomorrow? Maybe it’s Sunday. Either way, doesn’t seem particularly likely the Cubs will see them this weekend.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are a -145 favorite today with the Brewers at +120, which means the Cubs are somewhere north of 55% likely to win in the market’s eyes. The over/under’s at 9½.
Cubs News:
Joc Pederson’s onto the injured list with left wrist tendinitis, and Nico Hoerner came up last night to replace him. This doesn’t mean Hoerner’s up for good, but it’s a possibility, depending what else happens with the roster. Hopefully Pederson’s struggles are attributable to the wrist. Hopefully Hoerner plays well and the Cubs have a hard decision who to send down and/or cut when Pederson hopefully comes back healthy in ten days.
Cubs Thoughts:
Kyle Hendricks is suddenly a question mark, so it’d be nice to see him turn that at least into an ellipse if not a period. Meanwhile, this is an advantageous hitting day and the rest of the weekend is probably not. Get some runs!
