1. It is fun to pull away like that against a rival.
It was a white-knuckle night for so long that the final result feels like something from a different game. That eighth inning was a riot.
2. The Cubs are in a good spot.
It’s much nicer to be playing from ahead than behind in a series. For pessimists, the Cubs can’t get swept now. For optimists, a share of the division lead is still in reach this weekend. For reasonable optimists (as we like to frame our hopes), all the Cubs need to do is split these next two and they’ll have won the set.
3. Kyle Hendricks had another good night.
His xERA and FIP are still over 5.00, but his ERA’s no longer in that unsightly territory, and since getting lit up by Atlanta and saying he thought he was tipping pitches, Hendricks has a 2.36 ERA and a 2.51 FIP over four starts, averaging over six innings per outing in that stretch.
If the Cubs are going to compete for a division title, it’s hard to see a path in which Hendricks does have a sub-4.00 ERA. There just aren’t enough other confidence-inspiring options for that ace.
4. Let’s look at the rotation as a whole.
While we’re on the topic:
The Cubs are last in baseball in starter fWAR. They have the worst FIP and the fifth-worst ERA. FanGraphs’s depth charts feature, which projects rest-of-season WAR, says the Cubs have the fourth-worst rotation on paper. So, yeah, this is the big weakness right now.
For the time being, it’s acceptable. The Cubs could conceivably win the NL Central with the fourth-worst rotation in baseball. But this is where the Cubs will want to upgrade if they’re in an upgrading mood come July.
It’s conceivable that upgrades could come from within. Keegan Thompson may be a starter this year. Shelby Miller is still on a rehab assignment that has to be pushing the limits for how long a rehab assignment can go. Kohl Stewart and Tyson Miller remain in the organization. Alec Mills has done it before. Brailyn Márquez is on the Tennessee roster, even though he’s still in Arizona right now building up his arm.
But updates could also come from without. It’s worth remembering that the reasonable things to do when you have a middling team with a lot of guys in contract years are to either sell or to buy. Standing pat is not wise. If the Cubs are in contention in July, there’s an argument to be made for getting a little aggressive and trying to win one before the crunch. Giving up prospects at the beginning of an ostensible rebuild might seem odd, but if pushing back the next timetable by a year gives you a year of title contention up front, wouldn’t you take the year you have now, especially if you know it’s going to be a long year ahead? Also, NLCS appearances make money, I believe. In a variety of ways. Tell that to Tom Ricketts.
Anyway, here’s a non-exhaustive list of starters having good seasons so far in contract years on below-.500 teams:
- Max Scherzer
- Danny Duffy
- Wade Miley (has a club option for 2022)
The list could expand, and there are other starters who are better on paper than Duffy and Miley but haven’t pitched as well so far, but I mostly put this out there to say that there will probably be affordable arms on the market (it’s hard to imagine Duffy or Miley commanding too terrible a price) and potentially one historic talent on the market (I would pay another year of rebuilding for three months of Max Scherzer) and we’re so scared of the Cubs holding a fire sale that we’re ignoring the possibility they buy, and I don’t think that’s a possibility to ignore. Is it likely? No. Quite unlikely. But I think we’re undervaluing the possibility.
***
Around the Division:
The Brewers’ struggles continued, with them losing in Cincinnati 9-4. The Pirates did a Pirates thing and lost in Atlanta, 20-1.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. St. Louis: 25-19, 34.6%
2. Cubs: 23-21, 23.7%
3. Milwaukee: 21-23, 30.6%
4. Cincinnati: 20-23, 10.9%
5. Pittsburgh: 18-26, 0.2%
Brett Anderson faces Sonny Gray in Cincinnati this afternoon. Mitch Keller opposes Bryse Wilson in Atlanta.
In Brewers news, the Crew traded J.P. Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen to Tampa Bay for Willy Adames and Trevor Richards. Adames has been a slightly above-average bat across his young career, which has created some significant value at shortstop, and he had a bit of a monster season last year, turning in what would have been a four-WAR season were it maintained over 162 games. He’s struggling this year, though, and a lot of his value is just being less bad than some the Brewers have had stocking the infield already. Feyereisen was rocking until two weeks ago, when he allowed his first earned run of the year after seventeen scoreless appearances and promptly allowed six more across his next three outings. His xERA’s 3.12, so the Brewers are still giving up some value (Rasmussen’s is 3.77, so some value there too), and Richards hasn’t been great but has been more of an innings-eating reliever (he was a starter in Miami when he first broke into the bigs), so the Brewers basically traded some expendable bullpen pieces for a mop-up guy and a high-reward, can’t-make-the-offense-worse shortstop. I would say this makes the Brewers better. But not by a ton. It’s more a future move, as many have noted, and in that respect one would think it’s a great one for both them and the middle-infielder-loaded Rays.
Up Next:
Game 2
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. St. Louis
Where:
Busch Stadium
When:
6:15 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Temperatures in the 80’s at gametime. Wind blowing lightly, and generally in an inward direction.
Starting Pitchers:
Adbert Alzolay vs. Miles Mikolas
The Opponent:
Mikolas is returning after a season recovering from arm surgery. In the two seasons before his injury—the post-Japan seasons—he posted a 3.28 FIP and a 4.27 FIP, and there’s little reason to believe he’ll be any worse now. His return gives the Cardinals a boost, and the Cubs have their work cut out for them a bit tonight with potentially vampirically ageless Adam Wainwright awaiting tomorrow. Neither Mikolas nor Wainwright is a Max Scherzer (or even a Freddy Peralta).
The Numbers:
Even money. -110 to win, -110 to lose. Over/under’s at eight and favors the over.
Cubs News:
Jason Adam suffered a gruesome ankle injury during batting practice down at AAA. Hopefully he’s alright and it isn’t career-ending. It sounds, from their use of the phrase “open dislocation” to describe it, like something broke through the skin from inside, but don’t take my word on that. Anyway, no more Jason Adam in the Cubs bullpen mix, probably for a long time, as a 40-man roster spot opens up, possibly for Jonathan Holder or Rowan Wick, each of whom is eligible to come off the 60-day IL in the coming days (though we’ve received no update on either’s recovery in a while now).
Brad Wieck is back with the big-league club after Jason Steele, as we feared, was put on the injured list with that hamstring injury he left with Thursday after running the bases. There hasn’t been much word on the reason for Matt Duffy’s limited appearances the last few days, but Ron Coomer did say something like, “Matt Duffy might be banged up,” the other night, for whatever that was worth.
Cubs Thoughts:
Get the win, put the Cardinals on their heels, put the Cardinals in salvage mode. The whole bullpen should be available, with Hendricks pitching well enough and the offense breaking out at the right time such that no one had to throw more than 17 pitches or pitch across innings last night. If there’s a path to win it, spare no resource, especially with Monday off.
