It could happen. It isn’t likely to happen, but it could happen.
Here’s this morning’s updated NIT Bracketology. You don’t see this in there (you have to come here to see this, because we want your sweet, sweet clicks) but Oklahoma is the eleventh team above the projected cut line. Pretty far gone…except. Except they’re set to play Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament’s first round. Meaning on the off-chance they lose, they could be dancing in the real party.
Boomer Sooner. Here’s the NITuation:
Movin’ Out (Anthony’s Song): North Texas
North Texas fell victim to Joe getting the last of the conferences to what he calls “almost-finalized” in our model, meaning he confirmed their tournament formats and, more importantly, locked in their schedule the rest of the way, now that it’s finally clear. This took away a few games our model thought North Texas would both 1) make up and 2) win. It’s really close, and the Mean Green were already only barely in the field, but that’s what happened.
Moving In: Minnesota
And moving back in *drum roll while smiling and shaking our heads at the impishness of Richard Pitino* are the Minnesota Golden Gophers. No, I don’t know how they’re still here. But they’re still here. Lovely.
Teams Too Likely to Win Their Conference Tournament
Winthrop is a sizable (more than 80% likely) Big South Tournament favorite, but were they not, they’d slot in between Saint Mary’s and Mississippi. Of course, if they lose the Big South Championship, they’ll pick up a bad loss and fall out of the field, but that’s why they aren’t in the bracketology! They aren’t going to make the NIT!
Next in Line:
Below the field, from closest to close:
Stanford
St. John’s
Toledo
North Texas
Marshall
Navy
Dayton
North Carolina State
Belmont
Richmond
Providence
Georgia
Next out of Line
Above the field, from closest to close:
Boise State
Xavier
SMU
Wichita State
Colorado State
Virginia Tech
North Carolina
Rutgers
Colgate
Maryland
Oklahoma
Georgia Tech
***
And that’s the NITuation.
Today’s other notes:
- Richmond is gone after losing to Duquesne while shorthanded. What a ride it was.
- Dayton is still alive, beating Rhode Island yesterday. The Flyers now get a shot at VCU this afternoon. Would imagine a win would put them above the cut line, but you never know for sure with the NIT. It isn’t like some other tournaments.
- Michigan State lost to Michigan but it doesn’t appear to have hurt the Spartans. In fact, when one considers that there’s probably less variation now in their eventual seedings, I think we can agree it helped the Spartans.
- Colorado State visits Nevada. Would a loss bring the Rams back to us?
- Saint Louis plays UMass in the A-10 quarterfinals. Guessing the Billikens can afford to win that one, and they might not be able to afford a loss. What a time, guys. What a time. This 16-team field is tight.
- Duquesne’s next opponent is St. Bonaventure, and it’s unclear if the Bonnies could get in, but a blowout loss is their best shot, so let’s see what they can do.
- North Texas hosts UAB, trying to climb back in.
- Georgia Tech visits Wake Forest, trying to fall back in.
- Does Drake just need to lose at any point in Arch Madness to make the field? We don’t know, and we’re not sure losing to Northern Iowa is the best idea, but perhaps they’ve decided it is. We’ll soon find out.
- Western Kentucky hosts Old Dominion. Risk.
- If Loyola is to have any shot at making this thing, they should probably drop this one to SIU today. The Salukis took them to overtime on Saturday. It’s possible. Nobody would ask any questions, Porter. I promise. You can be safe here with us. It can be like 2019 all over again, except with you guys being good.
- Finally, Marshall hosts Charlotte, trying to stay alive, and UC-Santa Barbara hosts Cal Poly, trying to avoid historic disaster.
Enjoy the basketball. But not too much! Moderate. We’ve got a lot of March left.
