On Thursday, the Big Ten finally made the first move. We’ve been waiting for someone to cancel some games—the first step in what the best assumption states will likely be a pivot to an attempt to play football, and perhaps all fall sports (except cross country, I’d imagine, given the overlap with track and field) in the spring. On Thursday, the Big Ten did it. Nonconference games canceled, the conference schedule left TBD, and an announcement couched in language which made clear that this is not considered the likely final step (“…if the Conference is able to participate in fall sports…based on medical advice,” “We are also prepared not to play”).
Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott (who incidentally tested positive late this past week himself) has made clear his belief that the final decisions will be made by the end of July. That doesn’t mean there will be some dramatic press release on July 31st, but it does acknowledge what would otherwise likely only be estimated to be the deadline. Schools are going to have to decide whether to bring students back to campus. Some have already balked in this grand game of chicken. It seems highly likely we won’t see college sports in 2020.
In winter and spring of 2021, though, there is still legitimate hope, through some combination of vaccination, improved treatment, and increased immunity. There’s a lot we don’t know about the virus, and there’s a lot we don’t know about how society will respond over these next few months. Flattening the curve remains a possibility. Stamping out the virus remains a possibility. Lowering the death rate for the virus to a tolerable level remains a possibility. Everything’s on the table, and the same is true for sports. There are hurdles to playing all sports in the spring, sure, but it isn’t impossible. But while it also isn’t impossible we’ll see college sports in 2020, again, it really looks unlikely right now.
We’ll see.
