As I wrote earlier this week, there are nine teams in college football far enough ahead in the national championship race to be distinguishable from the pack. Beyond them, a dozen are tightly bunched.
The nine in front are not identical in terms of their chances. Alabama and Clemson each win the national championship in nearly 40% of our model’s simulations. The next team up, LSU, wins the title only six percent of the time. There are other gaps within the nine, but that’s the big one. This is a two-horse race, then a seven-horse race, then a dozen-horse race, and so on.
But it’s worth keeping track of the nine. Here they are, with their respective national championship probabilities. All ties are subjectively grouped by me.
T-1st: Alabama (39.5%), Clemson (39.6%)
3rd: LSU (6.0%)
4th: Ohio State (5.0%)
T-5th: Georgia (2.2%), Oklahoma (2.5%)
T-7th: Penn State (1.0%), Wisconsin (1.3%)
9th: Notre Dame (0.6%)
The pack behind them is also worth noting. Three among that pack—Oregon, Texas, Texas A&M—already have a loss, but each can at the very least plausibly play their way into the playoff conversation. They are as follows, listed in order of playoff probability: Utah, UCF, Iowa, Auburn, Michigan State, Oregon, Michigan, Washington State, Florida, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Texas. Beyond these twelve, which I’ll be referring to as the Next Dozen from here on out in this post, it starts to really drop off, with too many teams to list trying to climb into the race.
With the stage set, let’s look at the Week 3 Slate:
There aren’t a lot of games this week that figure to shake up the national championship picture. But of course, many will impact it, perhaps in ways currently unexpected, and regardless of that, there will be good games and bad games and exciting games and fun games.
Here are the ones we’re paying attention to:
Championship Contenders in Action
Eight of the nine top contenders play this weekend. None is less than an 85% favorite. Wisconsin is on bye, preparing for a game of large consequence against Michigan (side note: Week 4 is *packed* with games of consequence). Here are these eight games, in increasing order of upset likelihood:
Northwestern State @ LSU (LSU wins in 100.0% of sim’s)
New Mexico @ Notre Dame (Notre Dame wins in 99.3% of sim’s)
Nothing to see here. If all goes according to plan.
Arkansas State @ Georgia (Georgia wins in 95.3% of sim’s)
Clemson @ Syracuse (Clemson wins in 95.1% of sim’s)
The big takeaway in this pair is that Clemson is viewed by the ratings our model uses as enough better than Georgia that a road game against Syracuse is as much a foregone conclusion for the Tigers as a home date with Arkansas State is for the Dawgs. This might be a knock on Georgia. It might be appreciation for Clemson. With Notre Dame headed to Athens next weekend, we’ll learn a lot more about the former very soon.
Alabama @ South Carolina (Alabama wins in 91.1% of sim’s)
Pitt @ Penn State (Penn State wins in 89.9% of sim’s)
Oklahoma @ UCLA (Oklahoma wins in 89.4% of sim’s)
Ohio State @ Indiana (Ohio State wins in 85.8% of sim’s)
Fun with numbers: probability dictates that it’s 37.2% likely one of these four will lose, or about as likely as it is that the Braves will beat the Nationals tonight. More likely than not, they all survive, but it wouldn’t be the first time Pitt’s thrown a wrench into a championship hunt, or that Ohio State’s turned in a dud on the road in the Big Ten.
Teams in the Next Dozen Facing Quality Opponents
UCF, Iowa, Mississippi State, Michigan State, and Florida are all playoff longshots. Longshots to the extent that our model’s sample of 1,000 simulations is too small to measure out these games’ projected playoff impact with any accuracy. But these are probably the games a college football fan with no rooting interest would be most interested in watching, listed in order of the contender’s playoff probability:
Stanford @ UCF (UCF wins in 78.6% of sim’s)
UCF enters this weekend with a 5.1% chance of making the playoff. Given that this figures to be one of their toughest remaining games, and they’re nearly an 80% favorite, the message from that playoff number is that they’ll need a lot of help if they do manage to win out. Namely, help from teams like Stanford turning into Top 25 opponents. But a blowout win would be good for UCF no matter where the Cardinal go from here.
Iowa @ Iowa State (Iowa wins in 64.7% of sim’s)
Iowa’s path to the playoff runs through the Big Ten Championship, but a win this weekend wouldn’t hurt. While the Cyclones have been better of late (we’re trying to make it a Cyclone State), and Northern Iowa (who just took our guys to two overtimes) is better than a number of FBS teams, there’s a very real chance ISU doesn’t make a bowl this year. Our model has them as only the eighth-most likely team to win the Big 12. It’s unlikely a two-loss Iowa would make the playoff, even with a conference title, so winning tomorrow is important in that it would keep the Hawkeyes equipped with some margin for error.
Arizona State @ Michigan State (Michigan State wins in 82.2% of sim’s)
Last year, their Week 2 loss at Arizona State confirmed what the prior week’s narrow escape from Utah State had suggested: Michigan State wasn’t very good. A nice win at home would go a long way in easing doubts about Sparty’s ability to score after they finished last season posting just six each against Ohio State and Nebraska, 14 against Rutgers at home, and six again against Oregon in the bowl game.
Florida @ Kentucky (Florida wins in 63.9% of sim’s)
This is a fun one. Kentucky’s coming off a monumental year in their program’s history—one that really took off with a road upset of Florida the weekend after Labor Day. Florida’s trying to prove they’re more the team that edged LSU, took down Mississippi State on the road, and blew the pants off Michigan in the Peach Bowl than the one that lost by three touchdowns to Mizzou at home in the same 2018 season. Florida’s playoff path hinges more on a certain November contest in Jacksonville than this game, but a win would give them more of a cushion to lose at LSU or elsewhere and still be playing Georgia for a shot at the division title.
Kansas State @ Mississippi State (Mississippi State wins in 79.0% of sim’s)
K-State’s in their first year with head coach Chris Klieman, who came down from North Dakota State. But Mississippi State’s the one with the playoff chance here. The ratings we use think they’re one of the most underappreciated teams in the polls right now. With the visiting Wildcats forecast to finish in the middle of the Big 12, a comfortable victory might get the Bulldogs a little more attention.
Fringe Teams Playing Interesting Games
Looking through this weekend’s schedule, four other games pop off the page. None are can’t miss affairs, and all might feature a future bowl-ineligible team or two, but each features a borderline playoff contender (one is in that Next Dozen, and three are in the Top 25 of our playoff probability metric). Here they are, listed in order of the favorite’s playoff chances:
Washington State @ Houston (Washington State wins in 84.1% of sim’s)
An undefeated Cougars season is one of the Pac-12’s pipe dreams. Houston doesn’t figure to be all that good, but they get Memphis at home, so the possibility of them winning their division, beating UCF in one of their two chances, and earning Wazzu a Top 25 victory isn’t impossible. It also isn’t impossible that they’ll further demolish the Pac-12’s already thin playoff chances tonight.
USC @ BYU (USC wins in 65.7% of sim’s)
USC is the first team beyond the Next Dozen, meaning they’re 22nd in our model in playoff probability. Coming off a nice win over Stanford, they, like Wazzu, are a Pac-12 pipe dream. They, like Wazzu, have a chance to beat a mid-major named the Cougars on the road this weekend. For them, as for Wazzu, that mid-major has a viable (though highly unlikely) shot of turning into a Top 25 road win when all is said and done.
Florida State @ Virginia (Virginia wins in 70.2% of sim’s)
Virginia came into this season with a lot of buzz. After beating Pitt to open the year, our model views them as the Coastal Division favorite. And while that, for all intents and purposes, amounts to being the favorite to earn a date with a wrecking ball, they’d still prefer having that date to the alternative. But as the favorite, it’s their job to take care of business, and business is coming to town tomorrow in the form of the Seminoles.
Maryland @ Temple (Maryland wins in 66.6% of sim’s)
Arguably the most intriguing team so far this year, Maryland announced their presence last Saturday by disemboweling Syracuse right after Kirk Herbstreit allegedly said something about Syracuse probably hosting Gameday this weekend. Now, our model views the Terps as having the slightest of chances to win the Big Ten: 1.0%, an accomplishment that in the majority of our simulations results in them becoming the most surprising team yet to make the playoff. It’s possible, though, that Syracuse is just bad. An impressive victory by Maryland would help quiet that notion heading into their Friday Night date with Penn State at the end of the month.
