College Basketball Crown Bracketology

We’ve been getting a lot of questions about the College Basketball Crown, that new postseason tournament Fox Sports created that’s competing with the NIT for Big Ten, Big East, and Big 12 teams. We haven’t had a lot of answers. To be honest, we still don’t have that many answers, and there’s a good reason for that: Nobody has answers. From what we can tell, nobody outside of Fox Sports knows how exactly this thing is going to work. After asking around, I’m not sure many Fox Sports people even know what’s going on.

But, we do know some things. Here’s what we know and what we think, with some realistic bracketology at the bottom.

The Crown is 16 teams large.

The Crown’s own website confirms this piece. There is a bracket with tip times and arena assignments.

The Big 12, Big East, and Big Ten are involved. But not everybody in those conferences has to play, and teams from other conferences might be involved.

We’ve all seen the commercials. Most of us have seen Seth Davis’s original report on the tournament from September 2023, as well as Fox’s own press release from April 2024. Some of us have even seen John Templon’s FOIA report on the March 2024 memo sent to SEC athletic directors comparing the Crown and the NIT, before the SEC declined to join the Crown. The Crown has a partnership with the three conferences whose games sometimes appear on Fox Sports. The Crown is a Big 12, Big East, and Big Ten tournament.

Two questions stem from this:

1. Can Big 12, Big East, and Big Ten teams still play in the NIT?

The answer to this first question is yes. Most Big 12, Big East, and Big Ten teams will have the choice to decline the Crown. From what I’m hearing, I’m pretty confident that the two Crown automatic bids from each conference will be legally banned from choosing the NIT, thanks to their contracts with Fox. For teams who don’t receive one of those automatic bids, the choice is up to them.

Working in the NIT’s favor as teams make these choices: NIT games start right away after Selection Sunday, well before the transfer portal opens. NIT games are played with some geographic proximity to campus, and at least one team from each of the Big 12, Big East, and Big Ten will get to host in the first round. The Crown, on the other hand, doesn’t start until 15 or 16 days after Selection Sunday, a full seven or eight days after the transfer portal opens. It’s played in Las Vegas, where most tournaments, even good ones (the Pac-12 Tournament, the 2023 NIT Final Four, the Players Era Festival), struggle to draw crowds. They’re played the week of the NCAA Tournament Final Four, when a quorum of coaches, media, and other industry figures will be in San Antonio for college basketball’s annual informal convention.

Working in the Crown’s favor: These athletic departments have a working relationship with Fox Sports. There’s also a rumor that NIL money will go to the four semifinalist programs, although it’s unclear if that would go to current players or future ones, and it’s unclear how much it would be. With this just a rumor, with money fungible by definition, and with money especially fungible in the new revenue sharing world, I’m personally skeptical of the impact. Teams make money by playing more games. That’s how sports work. The money coming in the form of NIL contributions shouldn’t matter very much now that revenue can be shared.

2. Will teams from other conferences play in the Crown?

The Crown might have to turn to other conferences, which could turn ironic given the original idea was “college basketball without mid-majors.” If the Crown can’t get 16 teams from the Big 12, Big Ten, and Big East (and it might not be able to), it will either have to shrink itself (R.I.P. Vegas 16) or go and find teams elsewhere. I’m hearing there won’t be SEC teams available barring a major surprise from the NCAA Tournament committee. There will be ACC teams available, but it’s unclear if any will want to play. Will the Crown turn to mid-majors to fill its first tournament after building that tournament on a promise of no mid-majors? I don’t know. Others have pointed to Fox Sports broadcasting some Mountain West games and the “LV” in “UNLV” standing for “Las Vegas,” but the Crown was very clear about this at its genesis and again in its pitch to the SEC: No mid-majors allowed.

There’s a third question here, so let’s ask it:

3. What happens if someone, let’s say Villanova (pure hypothetical), gets an automatic bid and doesn’t want to play? Maybe because (pure hypothetical) they fired their coach? Have they breached their contract with Fox Sports? Does the next team in line—Georgetown or Butler in this pure hypothetical—face the same legal requirement to accept the bid?

Nobody knows the answer to this. Without naming names, I’m getting the impression there’s a team in the Big East who would like to know the answer to this and doesn’t know the answer to this.

I guess you could count this as an advantage for the Crown. If someone’s choosing between the Crown and the NIT and they’re worried the Crown might sue them, I understand how they could end up choosing the Crown. I would personally adore a Crown-based lawsuit, but I’m a weird guy.

Crown automatic bids will be determined by something, most likely an average of NET and KPI.

Apologies for propagating the evidently errant rumor that NET and NET alone will determine Crown automatic bids. I was told this afternoon that they’re actually using NET and KPI. We’ll fix our model before tomorrow morning in order to reflect this.

It sounds like the Crown will release its bracket on Monday.

The NIT isn’t doing a selection show this year, but the NIT’s bracket will come out on Sunday night, probably before you go to bed. The rumor is that Fox isn’t releasing the Crown’s bracket until Monday. Connecting the dots, this would suggest that Fox expects teams to wait and see if they get an NIT invitation before they commit to playing in the Crown. As—frankly—they should.

It’s unclear why Fox Sports is doing this.

I wrote last April, when Fox formally announced the Crown’s existence, date, and format, that Fox wanted the TV inventory. People like watching college basketball in March. Of course, this tournament takes place in April, but, well, you know.

I’d assume this is still the idea, but I do wonder if Fox Sports is placing a bet on the NCAA Tournament falling apart. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but…

When whoever leaked this idea went to Seth Davis to leak this idea (with great detail!), the concept was explicit: No mid-majors. Power conferences only. Again in John Templon’s FOIA report, we see this no mid-majors thing: “The FOX Event intends to distinguish itself from the NIT by fielding teams largely from ‘power’ conferences.” Also: “Participating in the FOX Event would enable SEC teams to avoid the ‘brand damage’ associated with losing to a school from a non-power conference in the NIT.”

Now. I took John’s report to mean that this was a memo sent by the SEC to SEC athletic directors. This was the SEC’s view of the pros and cons. Fox Sports didn’t say, “Hey Mitch Barnhart, remember Robert Morris?” But Fox Sports told the SEC their idea, and the SEC passed along that this would be a tournament for power conference teams alone.

In the words of Brian Windhorst: Why would they do that?

In September 2023, with realignment dust settled or settling, it was popular to talk about whether the power conferences would break away from Division I. The concept centered on football, like everything does, but the basketball ramifications were clear: If this happened, it would really mess up the NCAA Tournament. For some, this seemed to be the point. In October 2021, Bob Huggins had said power conferences should leave the NCAA Tournament altogether.

I don’t think the Crown’s big idea was to attack the NIT and try to grab market share.

I think the Crown wants to replace the NCAA Tournament.

This, of course, is a dumb idea. One of the most watched basketball games in America these last five years included Saint Peter’s. Brands drive the day in football, but March Madness itself drives college basketball as a business. Everything in the sport revolves around the NCAA Tournament, which is magnitudes larger than any single group of schools.

Dumb ideas can make money, though, especially in the short term, before they suck all the marrow out of whatever it is they’re currently leeching. Remember newspapers? Some folks made a lot of cash owning newspapers while newspapers died.

Less maliciously, I’m not sure Fox Sports understands college basketball all that well. Fox Sports is a football company. The Crown is an idea that makes more sense in football. The Crown’s heavy on marketing and light on information. It’s either incompetent, or these people don’t care.

If I had to guess, I think the latter, less malicious explanation is closer to the truth. I think Fox Sports built the Crown so it has a postseason tournament ready to go in the event Division I does break apart. I don’t think it was Fox Sports’s goal to make the Crown suck. I think that happened by accident, because the people making decisions (Fox Sports executives, certain athletic directors) are TV people, not basketball people.

That said, I don’t think Fox Sports cares if the Crown sucks. Clearly. Look at this thing. The Crown can suck, and Fox Sports will be fine. Fox just wants to have its own boat ready in the event football convinces the power conferences to indeed jump ship.

The line Fox Sports seems to have fed all its broadcasters is that “more postseason basketball is good.” I don’t disagree with that. More postseason basketball sounds great to me. The problem with the Crown is that instead of making a good tournament, Fox Sports made one that’s going to feature a bracket like the one we’ll show you down below. It’s not terrible basketball, but it’s not particularly fun, and thanks to the Crown, fans of teams like Nebraska might miss out on three NIT home games and a worthwhile sendoff to their seniors. The Crown does not improve upon the NIT. The Crown does not slot in above, below, or beside the CBI. The Crown just kind of exists, cutting a few teams out of the NIT in order to create a tournament that nobody—including Fox Sports itself—seems to care about. All for the sake of a little more TV inventory and a potential pipe dream where they inherit the NCAA Tournament’s ashes if Division I dies.

Good luck, I guess.

College Basketball Crown Bracketology

You’ve scrolled far enough. Here’s the most realistic Crown bracket I can offer. I’ve included teams’ records at the time this was written.

1. Ohio State (17–15)

8. Seton Hall (7–24)

4. Arizona State (13–19)

5. Cal (14–19)

3. UCF (17–15)

6. Washington (13–18)

2. Cincinnati (18–15)

7. DePaul (14–18)

1. Xavier (21–10)

8. Green Bay (4–28)

4. Utah (16–16)

5. Colorado (14–19)

3. Villanova (18–13)

6. Washington State (19–14)

2. Nebraska (17–14)

7. Providence (12–20)

I know this might come across as a joke because of UWGB, but I’m not entirely joking there, and the rest is serious. Here’s what this bracket is:

• Two automatic bids for each of the three affiliated conferences, determined by an average of NET and KPI from this morning.
• Additional bids for any Big 12, Big Ten, and Big East teams the NIT either will not want or might not want (because of the unsightly overall record).
• A bid for Utah because I understand Josh Eilert mentioned the Crown yesterday after the game.
• A bid for Washington State because David Riley said they’d like to keep playing, and they were at least recently a power conference team.
• A bid for Cal because the NIT won’t want them and they’re at least on the West Coast.
• A bid for Green Bay because if the goal is to not lose to a mid-major, playing Green Bay is a good way to do it. More importantly: Doug Gottlieb does work for Fox Sports, you know.