Clemson, as we’ve said again, and again, and again, is not a great football team. They’re good, sure. Movelor, our model’s rating system, even thinks they’re a top-ten team. But they’re not great. Unless…
The biggest story this past Saturday (with apologies to Oklahoma State, who kept their playoff angle alive while extinguishing speculative fodder revolving around Quinn Ewers’s shoulder and loss forgiveness by the committee, and to TCU, who stayed undefeated with a sizable comeback over Kansas State, and to Oregon, who washed UCLA out of the playoff picture and put themselves alone atop the Pac-12 standings, and to LSU, who eliminated Mississippi from 11-1 hypotheticality) came from the northwestern corner of South Carolina, where Cade Klubnik relieved DJ Uiagalelei and Clemson escaped Syracuse.
The win was a big deal. Without the win, we’re relievedly pushing Clemson to the back of the bottom shelf, along with the rest of the decrepit league still audacious enough to call itself the ACC. A comparably big deal, though, is the Klubnik/Uiagalelei question. For right now, Dabo Swinney’s answer to that question is “Uiagalelei.” If that’s his final answer, ok. We know Clemson’s good enough to win the ACC, probably good enough to go undefeated in the regular season, and definitely not good enough to be expected to hang with Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama, or Michigan, making them really freakin’ hope they draw Tennessee or USC or Oklahoma State, and further really freakin’ hope that Tennessee or USC or Oklahoma State isn’t really all that good. With Uiagalelei, Clemson is not one of the best four teams in the country, but they’ll probably have a conventional playoff résumé. With Klubnik…we don’t know. They might be just about the same. But it adds volatility. And Clemson could probably use some of that around the New Year, even if they don’t need it right now.
So, put a tab on that one. Now, this weekend’s action:
The Big(gest) Ones
There isn’t a clear gigantic game this weekend, but you could make the case for three as “big.”
The first leads off Saturday’s slate, and it’s up in Happy Valley, where Penn State—a top ten team in Movelor’s eyes, and near there in just about everybody else’s—is a two-touchdown underdog at home against Ohio State. The questions for the Buckeyes right now, in order of urgency, are 1) whether they’re better than Michigan and 2) whether they’re better than Georgia. If we get an answer to either this weekend, it’ll be “no,” but we probably won’t get an answer. That spread doesn’t imply we’ll get an answer. So: File this away as one that will either be one of the year’s defining games or an affair of absolutely no concern. There is little in between.
Since we started with the noontime (in the East), we’ll continue chronologically, looking at Oklahoma State’s trip to Kansas State as we await finding out the degree to which Tulane can play spoiler within the Big 12. Oklahoma State’s schedule isn’t “clear” from here—there are no clear schedules in the Big 12, because the middle tier is pretty good and the top tier isn’t good enough—but this is the last team currently in the Movelor top 25 that the Pokes will play until, should they make it, the Big 12 Championship. The ideal scenario for the Big 12 is that Oklahoma State wins out, that TCU wins out, and that the league gets a rematch in Arlington with each a viable playoff contender. One not-ideal scenario is that Kansas State, who missed their resurrection chance last weekend against the Horned Frogs, rallies and takes down the league’s best (?) team, cutting into the conference’s already-thin chances and looking with yet more woe upon their loss in September to the aforementioned Tulane.
Finally, in primetime, Kentucky goes to Tennessee, and this is a pretty big deal. We know Tennessee’s good enough to hang with Alabama. We know Tennessee beat Alabama at home. What we don’t know is what exactly went into that: Did Tennessee have a great day? Did Alabama have a bad day? Did Tennessee play down to Alabama’s level? Next weekend, the Vols go to Georgia. Kentucky’s good enough to give us a better idea of what to expect in that game.
The Good Ones
You know who’s poised to be a good test of where the committee views the ACC? Wake Forest. Our built-on-precedent model has the Deacs with a 3.8% playoff chance entering this weekend. That’s enough to make them a factor, and when a factor is favored by less than a touchdown, as Wake is on the road against Louisville, it’s a worthy game to keep on the radar.
A similar situation is playing out in Morgantown, where TCU, despite being undefeated, is hardly favored by a touchdown over arguably the worst team in the Big 12. This says a lot about TCU. The Frogs will likely win, but the script is there for one of those AP Poll upsets that only appears to be seismic in scope.
Illinois plays at Nebraska, and in the Big Ten West race, that’s a big deal. With last weekend’s win over Minnesota, the Illini are the one-loss leader and the clear favorite to win the division, but they still have to play Purdue and Michigan (and Michigan State, and Northwestern), making things far from certain. When we last saw the Huskers, they gave Purdue a game. There are some stakes here, even if it doesn’t feel like it.
Utah’s at Washington State tonight in their first appearance since holding off USC in Salt Lake City. Utah isn’t quite the Pac-12 favorite, as they still have a tough trip to Eugene on the docket, but besides that game, this is their toughest remaining contest, and it’s a standalone game, so for those awake: Tune in.
Notre Dame’s still puzzling, as is Syracuse, and when two puzzling teams play we don’t get answers, but we might get excitement. That game’s at the former Carrier Dome, whose name is still not committed to my memory.
Mississippi is suddenly a little less puzzling, but that doesn’t make their game against Texas A&M devoid of value. Should be good, and while the ticket prices are getting attention (in the bad way), it should still be loud.
Remember Cincinnati? They’re at UCF for what, in a future universe, could be a storied rivalry with roots in the then-national power’s aspirational days. Currently, though, the aspirations are still there, and these are still mid-majors, and it’s merely a big AAC game.
UNC has the most comical conventional playoff shot in the country, with a winnable division and only one loss and it certainly possible they could upset Clemson and turn the conference championship weekend into a whirlwind. They’ll try to keep the game alive at home against Pitt.
Finally, on the SEC undercard, Arkansas’s at Auburn and Mizzou’s at South Carolina and each should be good.
The Obligatory Ones
Weekend itineraries for playoff favorites, contenders, and factors we haven’t mentioned, along with their respective playoff probabilities:
- Georgia (87.6%) is playing Florida in Jacksonville.
- Michigan (57.2%) is hosting Michigan State.
- Alabama (50.9%) is idle.
- Clemson (34.1%) is idle.
- USC (8.4%) is at Arizona.
- Oregon (8.3%) is at Cal.
- UCLA (1.3%) hosts Stanford.
It’s not the highest-power weekend. But, as we often say here, sometimes those wind up the most memorable.
