Clemson went to South Bend and got thrashed. Trucked. Dismantled. Embarrassed. Dabo Swinney, who saw fit to start DJ Uiagalelei, stick with him until all was nearly lost, throw Cade Klubnik to the wolves, then pivot back to the doomed starter, left Notre Dame Stadium with more egg on his face than all the king’s men after their futile attempt to reconstruct Humpty Dumpty. Clemson, at long last, got exposed.
It might not matter.
With Alabama losing to LSU in Baton Rouge, Clemson’s playoff path remains both clear and attainable: Win out, watch two-loss teams win the Big 12 and Pac-12, and convince the committee they’re better than the Ohio State/Michigan loser and the SEC’s third-party candidate. It’s a lot of steps, but each is possible, if not individually probable. As a whole, they’re improbable to happen in conjunction—our model has these Tigers 1-in-8 likely to make the playoff—but each is straightforward: Clemson is favored to beat Louisville, and should be favored to beat Miami, South Carolina, and North Carolina. TCU is an underdog next week, and would be again in a conference championship rematch with Texas. Oregon gets a knockout shot against Utah in home in two weeks, but that’s still looking close to a tossup, and all three of the Ducks, USC, and UCLA have other close-to-coin-flip games remaining. Finally, we just saw rankings on Tuesday in which the committee downplayed Michigan’s accomplishments to a sizable degree while unexpectedly lauding Clemson. Since then, Alabama’s picked up the second loss, and Clemson’s vanquisher likely did enough to enter the top 25 themselves. Times are not that bad in the greater Greenville area.
Clemson doesn’t, however, control its fate. Who does control it? It’s no single entity, but arguably the largest player is the committee. The committee, long blessed with easy decisions, is suddenly looking at a rather arbitrary lineup of candidates for the fourth and final spot.
One of those candidates, in something like one in six scenarios? The SEC West champion: Alabama, Mississippi, or LSU.
LSU did not clinch the SEC West last night. They still need to beat Arkansas and Texas A&M each on the road. If they fail in one of those endeavors, they’re fine so long as Alabama, Arkansas, or Mississippi State beats Mississippi. If they fail in both of those endeavors, they even then still have a chance, though they’d need Alabama to lose once and Mississippi to lose twice. They’re a narrow favorite at Arkansas, and they should be a narrow favorite at Texas A&M, but it’s a tightrope.
LSU’s the one we’re curious about. Because we know what happens, more or less, with Mississippi and Alabama.
If Mississippi wins the SEC, they’ll likely have won out, and they’ll likely be in the field, very deservingly in the field. If Alabama somehow wins the SEC, they’ll have two road losses by a combined four points, one to (probably) a playoff team and the other to a healthily ranked LSU. That’s not a slam dunk résumé by any means, but if it’s between an 11-2 Alabama with a win over Georgia and a 12-1 Clemson with a win over UNC and an 11-1 Michigan with a win over Penn State, it wouldn’t be unreasonable for Alabama to get the nod. They’d certainly be the first two-loss team. If LSU wins the SEC…
If LSU wins the SEC, our gut tells us to assume it’s the same situation as Alabama, but our model is telling us to be cautious on that front. Despite giving LSU twice Alabama’s chance to win the SEC, it gives Alabama a 12.1% likelihood of being selected for the playoff and LSU just a 0.6% probability. Some of this is that Alabama can go 10-2, and LSU can’t. If LSU goes 10-2, they will play Georgia, and they will therefore go either 11-2 or 10-3, with 10-3 vastly more likely. But even that 11-2 scenario, skinny though it may be, is still more probable than LSU’s playoff chance. What’s up?
One thing is that Georgia and Tennessee may be in even if each finishes with one loss. Similarly, the Big Ten champion—barring disaster—is almost definitely in. Georgia’s at 97.1% playoff-likely. Ohio State’s at 94.2% playoff-likely. Tennessee’s at 72.9% playoff-likely despite holding just a 0.5% chance of winning the SEC (if that—our model, we confess, doesn’t have every single tiebreaker perfectly handled). Beating Georgia might not be enough for LSU to jump Georgia, the same way Penn State didn’t finish 2016 ranked ahead of Ohio State. The whole season is, rightfully, considered. And LSU, even after last night’s win, doesn’t have all that great a cover letter.
LSU lost to Florida State on a neutral field. LSU lost to Tennessee by 27 points at home. FSU should be ranked this week, and might finish the season ranked, and Tennessee—as we keep saying—is probably going to the playoff. But those are significant losses. If you can’t hang with a playoff team at home, should you be in the playoff?
One thing we built our model to do, wisely or foolishly, is to assume the committee is holding as close to precedent as possible. In practice, this means that when LSU opens the rankings ranked a few spots higher than expected, our model adjusts by the minimum amount necessary to put them there, leaving the widest gap possible between them, at 10th, and the next team up (in this case USC, at 9th). This, along with our model kind of shrugging at Alabama losing to a top-ten team by a single point on the road, has the model projecting LSU to close the gap with USC but not jump the Trojans this week, and has Alabama actually staying put at 6th. I don’t think this is going to happen. I think in this instance, our model is wrong. But what our model is telling us here is that the committee’s precedent would view Alabama’s team sheet as better than LSU’s right now, and better by enough to fit Clemson, Oregon, and USC between the two. You want to talk shared opponents? Clemson beat a team who beat LSU. Alabama nearly beat a team on the road who smoked LSU at home. The committee will probably hedge—if personally guessing, I’d say LSU finds themselves 7th on Tuesday, behind the top three, Michigan, TCU, and Oregon—but it’s going to be a big hedge. The precedent is not there, and we’re getting into the territory of asking how well a team is playing right now, which is dangerous.
A secret, within this? Alabama might not be all that good. They’ve now lost to Tennessee and LSU, each of whom has gotten pounded at least once, with Tennessee’s coming yesterday. Georgia is in a tier of its own. Ohio State seems to be in a lonely tier behind them. After that, things get tighter, but it’s hard to say with confidence whether Alabama’s better than Oregon, let alone Michigan. Another secret? Losing to a team by one on the road, on average, means you’re the better team. Home field advantage is worth more than two points. Especially in Baton Rouge.
Where does this leave us? There’s a lot of weight in the committee’s hands. And they’re probably quite big fans of everybody playing Alabama and LSU from here out.
Georgia Is the Best Team in the Country
Move over, Buffalo Bills. Or at least: Move over, Tennessee. Georgia welcomed the Vols to town and led 24-6 at halftime, leaving it to Josh Heupel to stop the bleeding. To be fair, Heupel did stop the bleeding, keeping the final result respectable enough to not doom Tennessee’s own chances. But there is a gap between Georgia and Tennessee. A big gap. Rating systems and betting markets thought this, going in, and it appears to have been confirmed. Georgia is Number 1.
Ohio State Struggled
The Buckeyes were never in terrible danger at Northwestern, but they did turn in a very bad performance, one that only seems like it could matter if they limp through these next three games and finish 11-1, on the bubble. Right now, the Bucks are fine. They’re still probably better than Michigan, but we do have reason to question that for the first time in a while.
What’s Michigan Up To?
It’s kind of wild to play in the Big Ten East and exit Week 10 having played just one ranked opponent. In the big picture, this is a reflection of Michigan State’s demise and the Wolverines’ nonconference scheduling, but in the small picture, Michigan is close to unproven, and Illinois’s loss to the Spartans took away what was going to be a high-visibility, high-win-probability game for Jim Harbaugh’s crew. Illinois may pull it together enough next week against Purdue to keep the game relevant in the context of that week, but the committee’s clearly skeptical of the Wolverines, and the likeliest scenario is that Michigan will finish 11-1, which makes that matter a great deal.
Another Week of TCU
TCU kept it going for another week, trailing Texas Tech to enter the fourth quarter but pulling away for an eventual decisive home victory over a mediocre foe. The Horned Frogs have a lot of solid wins, but they lack a win that jumps out as “signature” in status. That makes this weekend’s trip to Austin a great opportunity, but with a trip to Waco after that, and then a visit from Iowa State, and then the Big 12 Championship Game, the probability is low, and unless the committee dramatically changes its mind about this team, there is little margin for error, if any.
The Pac-12: Discuss
In a weekend which saw all three Pac-12 playoff possibilities play bad opponents, Oregon cruised, UCLA cruised, and USC made it weird, which is pretty much par for the course. Rating systems vary on the Trojans: Movelor (ours) ranks them 29th, FPI has them 13th, and SP+ has them 16th. Nobody, though, thinks that this is one of the two best teams in the Pac-12. Utah and Oregon, the consensus agrees, are better. UCLA, in a split decision, is probably better too.
This should work itself out, but the Pac-12 is so messy that it’s hard to see the whole thing working out for one of its teams. They do get three shots at it, which betters their collective odds—but Oregon has to host Washington, host Utah, and go to Oregon State before the Pac-12 Championship (if they make it). UCLA hosts USC in two weeks between a visit from Arizona and a trip up to Cal. USC has to face Notre Dame the week after the UCLA game. There are a lot of losable games for everyone involved here. Will everyone lose at least one? I don’t know, but even winning them all would only get every one of these guys to the doorstep.
UNC (*laughter*)
UNC remains hilarious. They almost lost to Virginia yesterday and are still one-in-three likely to win the ACC. They do have a couple tough ones these next three weeks—they’re an underdog against Wake Forest, they still have to host NC State—but their playoff chance is apparently better than LSU’s, if you’re wondering if it’s better to play in the ACC or the SEC if making the playoff is the goal. I guess this brings us back to Clemson.
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Full playoff probabilities and Movelor ratings/rankings are available here. We’ll have our model’s look at the rankings for you before Tuesday night.
