NIT fans have long relied on a particular tool to evaluate the NIT chances of teams in the Pac-8, then the Pac-10, and now the Pac-12. That tool is called the Pac Bell Curve, and while it’s not what the telephone company was named after, it is what the Giants’ stadium was once named after.
The Pac Bell Curve works like any other bell curve: it’s low at one end, low on the other, and high in the middle. It looks like a bell. And at its high points, the teams involved have a strong chance of making the NIT. Just like with any other bell curve.
It looks like this:
As you can see, on one end you have the bad teams: UCLA, Washington State, Cal. On the other you have the good teams: Arizona, Colorado, Oregon. In the middle, in the thick of the bell, where the ringin’ happens, you’ve got the right teams. And USC, who is loathed by the NIT community right now.
The Pac Bell Curve has looked rather funky over the years. Just last year, the heart of the bell was surprisingly close to the left end, and back in 2012, when Washington got the Pac-12 its fabled NIT automatic bid, the curve didn’t look like a bell at all.
Yet, here it is again. Look at it.
Now, let’s talk through it.
Arizona (2.1% NIT Bid Probability)
Not looking good for Sean Miller. I’ll tell you that much. Arizona hasn’t made the field since 2012. That’s the real scandal.
Colorado (2.7%)
The Buffs are a great example of the need to seize opportunity when it’s there. They got stomped by Texas last March, and now it’s looking like they might not get back to the NIT for a long time.
Oregon (3.6%)
2018 feels like a lifetime ago.
Stanford (52.0%)
Now we’re cooking. Some injuries have the Cardinal back where they want to be. Great work on the high-altitude road trip last week, losing both.
USC (56.5%)
On the one hand, I don’t want Andy Enfield to have a shot at glory. On the other, if USC makes the NIT Final Four and they give me another press pass, he’s mine for questioning. *tightens drawstring on bucket hat*
Arizona State (59.4%)
I’ve been told ASU is a party school. And that’s without a lot of NIT berths to celebrate. Imagine what could happen.
Washington (31.5%)
I love Washington because there’s always a few zealous college basketball bloggers (and AP voters) touting the Huskies as new and improved early in the season, and they’re never new, and they’re never improved.
Oregon State (27.8%)
Did President Obama have some connection to Oregon State basketball? If so, maybe that’s why he never responded to my invitation to last year’s NIT. Maybe he was waiting for this year. Might have to keep waiting, Barry.
Utah (10.6%)
A sleeper.
UCLA (3.4%)
*giggles*
Washington State (0.1%)
We’re now at the portion of the Pac Bell Curve where it’s more likely these teams make the other tournament than the NIT, so let’s just take a moment and let it sink in that a team as bad as Washington State is *less* likely to make the NIT than it is to make the NIT’s supposedly superior bastard child. *Kermit sipping tea*
Cal (0.0%)
Jury’s out on communism, but let the record show it’s not producing a lot of NIT success these days.
