Some numbers, from FiveThirtyEight:
| Burnley | Opponents | Differential | |
| Goals | 3.0 | 9.0 | -6.0 |
| Shot-Based Expected Goals | 7.4 | 8.9 | -1.5 |
| Non-Shot Expected Goals | 5.7 | 8.4 | -2.7 |
The Result:
Burnley 1, Arsenal 0
How It Happened:
There was never a lead to relinquish, but yet again, Burnley generated chance after chance and failed to capitalize, and yet again, Burnley let the foes through for a crucial score.
What It Means:
Burnley’s now 19th in the table, with the relegation probability at 39%, per FiveThirtyEight.
What’s Next:
An EFL Cup match on Tuesday against Rochdale A.F.C.
Other News:
Maxwel Cornet made his debut, coming on in the second half. He provided a spark and created many of the aforementioned opportunities for the Burnleyers.
In the partner club world, Ayr United beat Hamilton 2-0 to climb into the middle of the Scottish Championship table. Portadown lost 1-0 to Carrick, remaining just a point ahead of last place while having played two more games than their neighbors in the NIFL Premiership. Llandudno beat Llanidloes 3-0, and is just a point off the pace in Cymru North, though our guys have played one more match than the squads above them.
Thoughts:
I don’t know how great those metrics FiveThirtyEight uses are, but they back up what seems to be the visual takeaway, which is that Burnley is playing better than its results indicate. Will the good play last? I don’t know. Will the bad luck last? I don’t think that’s how bad luck works, unless the real “bad luck” is just an inability to finish. Hopefully the play outlasts the luck.
