Ok, disappointing again, but at the same time…Burnley’s doing a lot better by these expected goals metrics than in the past, right? That’s my impression, and it bears out in following the matches. The chances are apparent. The team seems to be playing better than last year’s. The team is leading matches, scoring goals (well, goal), letting up at times (disastrous times, disastrous little stretches) but it’s better that than never leading at all. It’s frustrating, sure, but it’s also encouraging. This team can compete. And we haven’t seen many of the transfers take the field.
The Result:
Everton 3, Burnley 1
How It Happened:
Burnley grabbed the lead early in the second half on a Guðmundsson cross sent in by Ben Mee, but Everton surged through shortly afterwards, scoring three goals in a six-minute stretch to put the game away.
What It Means:
Burnley’s currently 18th in the table, with the FiveThirtyEight relegation probability at 35%. That’s fourth-worst in the league. It’s also sizably below fifty percent.
What’s Next:
Saturday, Arsenal, home game.
Other News:
Nothing big I’ve seen. It was a rough game physically, so there’s some stuff going on about that in the media, but it’s a little one-sided and a little anti-Burnley and that’s probably the way it’s going to be when you play in a small, blue-collar town against a bunch of cake eaters from elsewhere on the isle.
Thoughts:
Again, not personally all that concerned. I know so little, but I can read numbers, and the numbers aren’t too concerning. Neither is the general feeling watching these guys. They’re getting chances. Eventually those seem likely to break through.
A point per match has been good enough in recent seasons to avoid relegation. To get to that pace rather soon, the lads would need to win three of their next six matches, which sounds difficult but could happen with wins against all but one of Arsenal, Norwich, Brentford, and Southampton, the first three of which are coming to Turf Moor. Not impossible, and if they don’t get there by the end of that stretch, they’ll still hardly be a quarter of the way into the campaign.
