Two things happened after Burnley’s unprecedented (actually unprecedented I’m not being hyperbolic) draw at Liverpool on Saturday. The second is that Man City’s UEFA ban was overturned, meaning Burnley needs to finish in the top seven, rather than the top eight, to make the Europa League. The first is that Sheffield United stomped Chelsea, giving Sheffield three somewhat unexpected points and making finishing in the top seven that much harder for our beloved Burnleys.
Following these develompents, four of the following five things must happen for Burnley to make the Europa League:
1. Arsenal Loses the FA Cup
Arsenal’s in the semifinals on Saturday against Man City. If they lose that, or lose the championship later against Man U or Chelsea, it will officially be the top seven EPL finishers going to play in the European NIT.
2. Burnley Passes Arsenal in the Standings
Technically, if Arsenal gets into the top six, Burnley only needs the last three things on this list to happen, but with Arsenal at 50 points right now, like Burnley, and only leading Bertie’s Boys in the goal differential column of the table, this is the second-most attainable of these five. Arsenal has yet to play Liverpool at home, Aston Villa on the road, and Watford at home. Aston Villa and Watford are in the relegation mix. Liverpool is the champion (but couldn’t beat Burnley hehehe).
3. Burnley Passes Tottenham
Tottenham sits two points ahead of Burnley and, like everyone else, leads our lads in goal differential (Burnley isn’t winning any tiebreakers). The Spurs have yet to play Newcastle on the road, Leicester at home, and Crystal Palace on the road. Newcastle and Crystal Palace are mediocre. Leicester is good.
4. Burnley passes Sheffield
Sheffield, after the dismantling of Chelsea, lines up four points ahead of Burnley. They visit Leicester tomorrow before hosting Everton and finishing the season at Southampton. Leicester, again, is good. Everton is Burnley-level. Southampton is Everton-level.
5. Burnley passes Wolverhampton
The Wolves. The Wolves are five ahead of Burnley and, as you may have ascertained from the title of this blog post, are kicking off at Turf Moor in just a few hours. After today, Wolverhampton hosts Crystal Palace before traveling to Chelsea, who is allegedly good but got worked by Sheffield this weekend.
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In other words, Burnley might need to win out to make the Europa League. After today, they travel to relegated Norwich before finishing at home against mediocre Brighton, so the opportunities are there if they can get past the Wolves. A draw would technically keep them alive provided Sheffield loses or draws, but the gate would narrow that much further. A loss would leave them also technically alive, but again, they’d have to hope Sheffield grabbed only one point the rest of the way amongst other unlikely results.
It’s possible that even winning out wouldn’t be enough for Burnley to crack the top seven. Wolverhampton would need just four points—a win and a tie—to stay ahead. Sheffield would need just five—a win and two ties or two wins (and thereby a point of cushion). Tottenham would need just two wins and a tie.
The odds look slim, and Burnley is still missing a handful of contributors. A win combined with Arsenal losing, Tottenham not winning, and Sheffield losing would be incredible, and would put the lads a few good results this weekend away from controlling their fate heading into the final matchday. Unfortunately, only Arsenal losing is a favored result out of those four things.
Gonna need some magic, friends.
