“What a shift from the lads.” – Ashley Barnes
What a shift indeed.
The Result:
Burnley 1, Liverpool 0
How It Happened:
Liverpool put some good pressure on all day, and even had a breakaway goal opportunity before halftime off a rare Ben Mee miscue. But Divock Origi hit the post and the defense held the rest of the day, with some crucial play from Nick Pope, Mee, James Tarkowski, and the rest. Stop after stop after stop. Until finally, with Liverpool pressing for a goal of their own, Burnley got it past the Reds’ midfield, with Matt Lowton dumping the ball into the penalty box where Ashley Barnes, having wrestled his way past Fabinho, tried to poke it over Liverpool keeper Alisson Becker, missing the goal but getting collected by Becker’s attempt to smother the shot, thereby drawing a penalty, which Barnes knocked home to give the Clarets the lead.
It was a controversial call, but the commentators didn’t seem to harp much about it, making me think it was a gray area (and if you’ll recall the Leeds match, Burnley isn’t immune from the other end of controversial calls). And speaking of controversy…
Right before halftime, Fabinho tried to sweep the leg on Barnes as the two went at it for a jump ball as the whistle blew. Fabinho dodged a red card, but Sean Dyche and Jurgen Klopp got into it in the tunnel, and there was a moment in the tumult where it looked like players might throw hands.
Fiery day. Which made it even better.
What It Means:
It was Liverpool’s first home EPL loss since 2017, and it coming via a massive upset (Burnley, you may remember, was only something like six percent likely to win according to bettors, which is like a 24-point underdog winning in college football) made it all the more remarkable. At the time Barnes scored, we’d just gotten to the point in the match where it looked like Burnley was going to pull out the draw, which would’ve been in itself a stunner, and the closing ten minutes of frantic defense by the Clarets exhilarated.
In the standings, the win pushed Burnley back ahead of Brighton and in line with Newcastle, trailing the latter only on goals scored. So Burnley is now 16th, seven points clear of the relegation zone, while Liverpool—though in fourth place technically—is effectively in fifth or sixth with Tottenham and Everton holding a game and two games in hand, respectively. If Newcastle loses on Saturday to Aston Villa, which is the probable-but-not-overwhelmingly-expected result, Burnley will move to 15th, and their relegation likelihood, which currently sits at 14% according to FiveThirtyEight, will likely drop to an even better state than those one-in-seven odds. Having been as high as 44% likely to be relegated a couple months ago, this is a major step forward after the terrible start, and it comes at a good time, with Burnley’s next three EPL games coming against teams in the league’s top eight by FiveThirtyEight’s SPI (Aston Villa has three games in hand, and is thus eleventh, which is why we didn’t just say the teams are in the top half of the table).
What’s Next:
Before resuming EPL play, Burnley goes to London on Sunday to play Fulham in the FA Cup, where they’re aiming to advance to the Fifth Round, which is the round of 16. Not close to the Europa League yet, but getting there.
Other News:
Charlie Taylor returned, but appeared to reaggravate the hamstring injury early in the second half. Haven’t heard an update on him since.
General Thoughts:
Nothing. My mind is full of Burnley.
Burnley Thoughts:
After the match, Dyche said something that boiled down to: Burnley tries to nail all the fundamentals first and foremost, and after that tries to grab opportunities when they’re there.
Given Burnley scores so rarely, this can be frustrating at times. But when it works…whoa. And did it ever work. And how fun it was to watch it in action.
With the transfer window rolling on, it could be an even more exciting few days in Claretland. Burnley’s far from being entirely safe, but they’re getting into the point in the season, and in the table, in which they can close the door on relegation and turn the focus towards trying to get back into the league’s top half, where they narrowly finished last year.
What a day.
