One full day of NITitillation. One full day of NITerritorialism. One full day of the best full day of yet another great day in our wonderful, blessed lives.
Let’s talk NIT. All the numbers come from our model.
| Team 1 | Team 2 | NIT Leverage |
| Boise State | San Diego State | 0.96 |
| UNLV | Utah State | 0.70 |
| Nevada | Colorado State | 0.60 |
| Duquesne | St. Bonaventure | 0.53 |
| Georgia Tech | Duke | 0.51 |
| Bowling Green State | Akron | 0.45 |
| Texas | Texas A&M | 0.35 |
| SMU | Louisville | 0.26 |
| North Carolina | Wake Forest | 0.25 |
| Davidson | Saint Louis | 0.24 |
| Iowa | Illinois | 0.21 |
| Northwestern | Wisconsin | 0.20 |
| Charlotte | Florida Atlantic | 0.13 |
| La Salle | Saint Joseph’s | 0.09 |
| Butler | St. John’s | 0.07 |
| USC | Purdue | 0.06 |
| San Jose State | New Mexico | 0.06 |
| UC Santa Barbara | Cal State Northridge | 0.05 |
| Louisiana Tech | Middle Tennessee | 0.05 |
| DePaul | Creighton | 0.04 |
| Villanova | UConn | 0.04 |
| Stanford | Clemson | 0.03 |
| Fordham | George Washington | 0.02 |
| Indiana | Oregon | 0.02 |
| Marquette | Xavier | 0.02 |
| Colorado | Houston | 0.01 |
What’s up:
ACC: Still the College Basketball’s Premier Conference
- 12:00 PM EDT: Duke vs. Georgia Tech (ESPN)
- 2:30 PM EDT: Wake Forest vs. North Carolina (ESPN)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Louisville vs. Stanford (ESPN2)
- 9:30 PM EDT: Clemson vs. SMU (ESPN2)
I wish I remembered which adjective they use in their commercials. Is it premier?
Either way, everybody’s talking Tar Heels.
This is one of those games where the broadcasters will say that the winner’s in the NCAA T*urnament and then tomorrow, everyone will acknowledge that the winner is not in the NCAA T*urnament. Really, they should be saying that the loser’s in the NIT. That’s what’s happening. Whoever loses between UNC and Wake is getting The Invitation.
Elsewhere, Georgia Tech looks to make a statement, Stanford tries to hasten the inevitable, and SMU could really mess up their NIT shot.
They don’t call it college basketball’s premier conference (or whatever they call it) for nothing.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Georgia Tech | 72% | 21% |
| SMU | 65% | 90% |
| Wake Forest | 74% | 89% |
| North Carolina | 81% | 91% |
| Stanford | 87% | 90% |
Mountain West: Peaks and Valleys, As Is Fitting
- 3:00 PM EDT: New Mexico vs. San Jose State (CBSSN)
- 5:30 PM EDT: San Diego State vs. Boise State (CBSSN)
- 9:00 PM EDT: Colorado State vs. Nevada (CBSSN)
- 11:30 PM EDT: Utah State vs. UNLV (CBSSN)
Seven Mountain West teams playing today still have some sort of NIT shot, and the one that doesn’t is coached by Tim Miles, the guy who puts the wholesome back in America.
For three of these teams, today’s probably an NIT play-in. For two of those, we’re positive about that. Boise State and Colorado State can wrap up bids. Maybe even a 1-seed for Boise. San Diego State? The Aztecs can make a strong case. Add in the Nevada schools and Utah State all trying to make an NIT push, plus a desperate last grasp from Richard Pitino’s New Mexico Lobos, and boy oh boy. This is the best thing the CBS family of networks will broadcast all year.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| San Diego State | 30% | 98% |
| Utah State | 2% | 43% |
| Nevada | 74% | 41% |
| UNLV | 58% | 28% |
| Boise State | 70% | 99% |
| Colorado State | 73% | 99% |
| New Mexico | 0% | 6% |
Atlantic 10: SLU or Die
- 11:30 AM EDT: St. Bonaventure vs. Duquesne (USA)
- 2:00 PM EDT: Saint Louis vs. Davidson (USA)
- 5:00 PM EDT: George Washington vs. Fordham (USA)
- 7:30 PM EDT: Saint Joseph’s vs. La Salle (USA)
To be clear, this is a play on “Do or die.” This is not us saying you absolutely must cheer for the Billikens.
To keep being clear, though, we’re cheering for the Billikens. We’d love to get Avila & Swope & Schertz back again this year. Sorry, Davidson. Maybe try to get more relevant.
More old friends, the Bonnies, are also close. Win, and their biggest risk is winning the A-10 Tournament. George Washington, yet another old friend? Not close. Not close at all. But we’re saying there’s a chance.
Then, there’s Saint Joe’s. Our model says that they’ve got a better chance of making the NIT if they manage to lose to La Salle for the second time in a week. That’s true, but only because of the A-10 Championship risk they’d take on by reaching the quarterfinals. The best thing Saint Joe’s can do is win three games and not a single game more.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| St. Bonaventure | 86% | 32% |
| Saint Louis | 24% | 0% |
| Saint Joseph’s | 79% | 88% |
| George Washington | 2% | 0% |
Big Ten: Fran-demonium
- 12:00 PM EDT: Oregon vs. Indiana (BTN)
- 2:30 PM EDT: Wisconsin vs. Northwestern (BTN)
- 6:30 PM EDT: Illinois vs. Iowa (BTN)
- 9:00 PM EDT: Purdue vs. USC (BTN)
You know how “pandemonium” literally translates to “the place of all demons?”
I really like Fran McCaffery right now.
Iowa’s done enough. Lose, and they should get The Invitation. One thing impacting their race for a home game: After Ohio State’s loss, Northwestern’s back in the mix to avoid the Crown. So is Nebraska. And since we think our model might be overestimating Ohio State’s NCAA T*urnament chance, that means Iowa has to figure out how to thread a needle here. Iowa needs to be the third Big Ten team out, and the metrics which determine that are different between the Crown and the NIT.
Nebraska fans: You should be cheering for Northwestern.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Iowa | 52% | 73% |
| Northwestern | 21% | 41% |
| USC | 58% | 52% |
| Indiana | 0% | 2% |
Miscellany
- 11:00 AM EDT: Akron vs. Bowling Green (ESPN+)
- 2:30 PM EDT: FAU vs. Charlotte (ESPNU)
- 3:00 PM EDT: Houston vs. Colorado (ESPN2)
- 3:30 PM EDT: Texas A&M vs. Texas (SEC Network)
- 9:00 PM EDT: Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech (ESPN+)
- 9:00 PM EDT: Cal State-Northridge vs. UC Santa Barbara (ESPN+)
Could Colorado get The Invitation at 14–20? We don’t really know. Maybe take that one with a grain of salt. We live in unprecedented times, they say.
The rest of these are conventional, ranging from Akron’s automatic bid quest (already in progress) to MTSU’s exempt bid pursuit (the Blue Raiders are in if Liberty wins the Conference USA Tournament). With Texas, do remember: The NCAA T*urnament committee makes a big deal about how it considers all conference tournament games. There’s no convincing evidence, however, that the NCAA T*urnament considers all conference tournament games. We don’t know when the Longhorns’ fate will be sealed.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Akron | 53% | 98% |
| Texas | 0% | 35% |
| Florida Atlantic | 14% | 1% |
| Cal State Northridge | 7% | 1% |
| Middle Tennessee | 56% | 52% |
| Colorado | 63% | 64% |
| Louisiana Tech | 1% | 0% |
Big East: The Butler, in the Garden
- 12:00 PM EDT: St. John’s vs. Butler (Peacock)
- 2:30 PM EDT: Xavier vs. Marquette (Peacock)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Creighton vs. DePaul (FS1)
- 9:30 PM EDT: UConn vs. Villanova (FS1)
Things that can keep Butler from playing in the NIT include Xavier making the NCAA T*urnament (that gets Butler an automatic bid to the Crown), Butler falling behind Georgetown in the ratings (that takes away Butler’s NIT exempt bid), Butler staying ahead of Georgetown in the ratings (that’s what sets up the Crown automatic bid if Xavier makes the NCAA T*urnament), and the Crown indeed having legal authority over whoever gets the Big East’s second automatic bid when/if Villanova declines. We really hope Fox doesn’t have that legal authority, but in this administration?
Also, Butler plays St. John’s today.
DePaul’s on here because of the exempt bid possibility. Xavier and Villanova are on here because we let our model believe there’s a one to five percent chance the Crown gets bullied into folding.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Butler | 17% | 23% |
| DePaul | 12% | 8% |
| Villanova | 0% | 4% |
| Xavier | 0% | 2% |
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