Boise State did it. We thought they’d left us. We thought they’d outgrown their old friends. Then, the Broncos did what they did these last sixteen days, proving the ancient saying: “If you love something, let it go. If it’s meant to be, it’ll lose four straight games to be with you.”
We love you too, Boise. And you’ve found a home at the very top, today, of our NIT Bracketology. Could it change over the days to come? Yes. But love lasts forever, and love is what we have here.
The NITuation:
Movin’ Out (Anthony’s Song): Utah State, UC-Santa Barbara
The Mountain West giveth, the Mountain West taketh away. Utah State is, at the moment, projected to land beyond our reach. If we’re being perfectly honest, we’d take Boise State if given the choice.
UC-Santa Barbara didn’t do anything bad, but they are now more than 50% likely to win their conference tournament, so they’re expelled until they lose (or until they just win their conference tournament and miss the NIT).
Moving In: Boise State, Toledo
Toledo’s back. Their best hope is to win today and lose tomorrow, preferably to the better of whichever two possible opponents are on the board. It’s doable, and is pretty much what our model expects to happen because of the whole median-simulation thing.
Next in Line:
Below the field, from closest to close:
Richmond
Georgetown
Dayton
Kentucky
North Carolina State
North Texas
Stanford
Davidson
Marshall
Belmont
Navy
Providence
Georgetown’s getting close.
Next out of Line:
Above the field, from closest to close:
Utah State
SMU
Drake
UCLA
Virginia Tech
Colorado State
Louisville
Syracuse
Wichita State
Oklahoma
Maryland
Colgate
UCLA did so much, but to our model’s eyes, they didn’t quite do enough. We’ll see.
***
And that’s the NITuation.
Other notes for today:
- The report is that Duke will decline an NIT invitation if offered, but we haven’t heard that explicitly yet. We’ll see.
- Penn State fell by a point against Wisconsin, which is a pretty effective closing argument. They’re 11-14, but they also played an obscene schedule. We’ll find out.
- Indiana lost to Rutgers, and they’re still in our field but they too are three games under .500, and unlike Penn State, their vibe is terrible. How things have changed since beating Iowa on Super Bowl Sunday.
- Virginia Tech is probably beyond our reach, but they did what they could do yesterday, losing to UNC. Remember when UNC/NIT was a thing? Miss those days.
- Seton Hall beat St. John’s in overtime. Will both make the field? Society seems to think yes. So does our model. So does my magic 8-ball.
- Michigan State got hit hard by Maryland. Society and our model disagree here, with the former hating on MSU’s NIT chances. I already misplaced the magic 8-ball, so no tiebreaker.
- Kentucky almost pulled off a big comeback over Mississippi State, but it wasn’t to be. End of the road for the Wildcats, one would assume.
- Minnesota almost upset Ohio State, which was a pretty good closing argument for their NIT case. The Gophs don’t have what Penn State has, and their collapse was worse than Indiana’s, but they also aren’t the ones being viewed with complete and total disgust, which is where the Hoosiers have landed. For what it’s worth, Minnesota is 14-15 overall.
- Georgia’s hopes were dashed on a Mizzou-shaped rock.
- Georgetown, as alluded to above, is surging. Keep an eye on those fellas. One more win, and it should be paydirt.
- Nevada was the team that beat Boise State. Reno!
- Oregon State took down UCLA, which will never not be fun, I don’t think.
- Mississippi took care of business against South Carolina.
- Western Kentucky took care of business against UTSA.
- Toledo escaped a frantic Ball State effort.
- Georgia Tech didn’t even turn around to say goodbye. Bon voyage, sweet Pastner.
- It was a throttling of UNLV, combined with other MWC Tournament developments, that pushed Utah State up to where they’re at.
- As this is written, Western Kentucky’s in a tight one with UAB. Probably fine to lose it, but a win would still leave them an NIT path.
- As this is written, Wichita State’s struggling mightily with South Florida, which could be great news for the Shockers.
- Mississippi plays LSU. Could probably get away with a win, but unwise to push it at this stage.
- Colorado State and Utah State play. Utah State might be able to hop back down with a loss. Colorado State’s toast.
- Georgetown plays Seton Hall. Symbiosis opportunity in a big way. Also keep an eye on this winner as a potential bid thief from the other tournament.
- Toledo plays Ohio, and would do well to win.
- Memphis plays UCF, and can get away with a decent amount of whatever they want.
- SMU plays Cincinnati, and a loss would be magnificent for the NIT’s not-actually-hometown team.
- UC-Santa Barbara plays UC-Davis. Win this one, lose the next one. That’s the play.
Bona NIT.
