An exhilarating part of Champ Week is how early the NIT bubble teams get into the fray. Like cats on crack, NIT candidates rush on in there, scrapping and scrounging for every ounce of credibility (or lack thereof). The Invitation doesn’t come cheap. The Invitation must be earned.
Ten games today offer at least a morsel of NIT stakes, with the bulk of the action coming in Charlotte and Kansas City, two perfectly NIT cities. Sometimes it feels like bright cosmic forces are shaping our world in the image of our favorite tournament. I think that’s because they are.
As always, all the numbers in here come from our NIT probability model. If you don’t care about them, don’t worry. There are words here too.
| Team 1 | Team 2 | Game Leverage |
| Northwestern State | McNeese | 0.85 |
| Montana State | Northern Colorado | 0.66 |
| Colorado | TCU | 0.47 |
| UCF | Utah | 0.47 |
| Arizona State | Kansas State | 0.34 |
| Syracuse | Florida State | 0.30 |
| Cincinnati | Oklahoma State | 0.17 |
| Pitt | Notre Dame | 0.11 |
| UNC Wilmington | Delaware | 0.06 |
| Gonzaga | Saint Mary’s | 0.03 |
In the Heartland…
- 12:30 PM EDT: Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma State (ESPN+)
- 3:00 PM EDT: TCU vs. Colorado (ESPN+)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Kansas State vs. Arizona State (ESPN+)
- 9:30 PM EDT: Utah vs. UCF (ESPN+)
The Big 12 is stuffing the NIT stat sheet these days, shoving it chock full of faded hope and massive uncertainty. Could this conference be a nine-bid league? Yes. A zero-bid league? Probably not, but there’s some sort of chance. Does Brett Yormark have dreams of surprising Greg Sankey in his office late one night in June, perched upon his desk when Sankey returns from the bathroom? Yes. “Let’s cut a deal,” Yormark says in the dream, and suddenly, the Alamo Bowl has a different sponsor every quarter.
It looks like Cincinnati’s bound to the Crown, but Oklahoma State’s straddling the bubble like Pistol Pete atop an equally cartoonish mascot horse. Three days ago in Stillwater, Oklahoma State went right at the Bearcats and walked away a winner. Do they do it again here?
TCU’s 2017 and 2019 NIT runs will live forever in our hearts, and if you let us drink enough Lone Stars, you can probably persuade us Jamie Dixon’s the best coach in America. You could not get us to say that about Tad Boyle, but the Buffs are surging, winners of three of their last four. This too is a rematch from Saturday. Colorado won that game by twenty in Boulder.
Today might be Bobby Hurley’s last day with the Sun Devils, and I wonder how Dan Hurley feels about that. ASU’s allowed 97 points per game its last four times on the floor, but even at Kansas State’s best, they’re not the kind of team who does the whole “score a ton of points” thing. We love that about them.
Last, the nightcap. We should be getting Craig Smith vs. Johnny Dawkins. Instead we’re getting Utah interim Josh Eilert. We’ve made our feelings clear about Mark Harlan, but to tone it down for a second: Depending on Utah’s NET and then their Crown and/or NIT decision, this could be the last game for Gabe Madsen, an all-time Ute.
It’s an uncertain day. Purgatorial, you could say. Somewhere between greatness and despair.
Sounds like our kind of thing.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Colorado | 36% | 6% |
| Utah | 18% | 44% |
| UCF | 50% | 70% |
| Arizona State | 24% | 43% |
| TCU | 61% | 78% |
| Oklahoma State | 57% | 40% |
| Kansas State | 37% | 51% |
| Cincinnati | 2% | 2% |
On the Coast…
- 2:00 PM EDT: Pitt vs. Notre Dame (ACC Network)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Syracuse vs. Florida State (ACC Network)
Well, almost on the coast.
Notre Dame and Pitt kick things off in Charlotte, and I wonder what makes ACC nostalgists sadder: That this tournament isn’t in Greensboro or that no original ACC teams are playing on its opening day. This is why they should’ve included all 18 teams. You can’t have an ACC Tournament without NC State.
Pitt’s getting The Invitation no matter what, so it’s only a matter of timing for the Panthers. Notre Dame’s coming off back-to-back conference wins for only the second time this year, and in quite the mathematical feat, they doubled their scoring from the first of those games to the second. Do the Irish keep it going and put up 224 here? If so, expect Markus Burton to score 199 of those himself.
Apologies to Cal and Virginia Tech, both of whom we like. No NIT stakes there.
Syracuse is merely hoping to hope, but Florida State’s got reason to want to dodge a bad loss. Weird team, Florida State. Always a weird team. Leonard Hamilton has been at Florida State for 54 years. I still never feel like I understand FSU basketball.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Florida State | 71% | 41% |
| Notre Dame | 10% | 0% |
| Pitt | 90% | 90% |
| Syracuse | 1% | 0% |
Auto-Bid Play-Ins
- 7:00 PM EDT: Northwestern State at McNeese (ESPNU)
- 9:00 PM EDT: Northern Colorado vs. Montana State (ESPNU)
Yes, Joe Craven’s on the call in Boise. Treat yourself.
I don’t know when and how the Southland made the decision to give McNeese hosting duties over the conference tournament, nor do I remember when they went to the ladder bracket. All I know is that either the Southland or some dark force in the universe wants Will Wade to miss the NIT. The Cowboys get two chances. This is going to be the harder of the two to lose.
In that Boise game, Northern Colorado’s also facing their penultimate chance, and this might be the better of the pair? Montana State runs Boise. The Bobcats haven’t lost a Big Sky Tournament since 2021.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| McNeese | 13% | 98% |
| Northern Colorado | 33% | 99% |
The Fringe
- 7:00 PM EDT: UNC Wilmington vs. Delaware (CBSSN)
- 9:00 PM EDT: Saint Mary’s vs. Gonzaga (ESPN)
Gonzaga’s got a shot with bid thieves. UNCW’s got a shot with opt-outs. Each would need to lose tonight to make it happen. Godspeed, fellas. Godspeed.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| UNC Wilmington | 0% | 6% |
| Gonzaga | 0% | 3% |
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