Are you excited?
Yeah.
Me too.
The games:
Straightforward Play-In Games
- 11:00 AM EST: UMass Lowell @ Vermont (ESPN2)
- 11:00 AM EST: Yale vs. Cornell (ESPNU)
- 1:00 PM EST: Howard vs. Norfolk State (ESPN2)
- 7:30 PM EST: Iona vs. Marist (ESPNU)
Simple situations here: Vermont, Yale, Howard, and Iona are each into the NIT with a loss. Vermont, Howard, and Iona are each out of the NIT with a win. If Yale wins, they get another try tomorrow.
More Complicated Play-In Games
- 1:00 PM EST: VCU vs. Saint Louis (CBSSN)
- 7:30 PM EST: Toledo vs. Kent State (ESPN2)
These aren’t as straightforward.
If VCU loses to SLU, VCU is in as an automatic bid. That part is simple. The other part, though? If that happens, SLU might make the NIT as an at-large bid, so fans of teams on the Lower Bubble are even bigger VCU fans than you all otherwise were. A two-bid Atlantic 10 is possible. Three? Probably not, but it’s getting tight. This week has gone well for them. This is only the A-10 semifinal, so if VCU does win, it isn’t over.
If Toledo loses to Kent State, Toledo is likewise in as an automatic bid, and Kent State is out, conscripted into the NCA* *********t. If Toledo wins, Toledo is out, but Kent State’s in the at-large mix. It might depend on margin.
The Upper Bubble
- 3:30 PM EST: Texas A&M vs. Vanderbilt (ESPN)
- 8:30 PM EST: FAU vs. UAB (CBSSN)
It’s conceivable that Vanderbilt could get out of this without winning the SEC Tournament, something unfathomable weeks ago. Credit to Vanderbilt for building an excellent NIT case and now immediately starting to destroy it. Godspeed.
FAU is probably out, now that they’ve beaten MTSU, making the FAU/UAB game kind of a wash for Lower Bubble NIT fans. On the Upper Bubble? Different story. A UAB win, and especially a close UAB win, means an additional Upper Bubble team gets to hang with us.
The Lower Bubble
- 3:00 PM EST: Houston vs. Cincinnati (ESPN2)
- 3:30 PM EST: Dayton vs. Fordham (CBSSN)
Dayton and Cincinnati are both in the Lower Bubble mix, on opposite sides of our projected cut line right now. Cincy’s most likely safe if there aren’t too many auto-bids and they don’t lose by 30, but each of those things are looking pretty possible. Dayton’s got a tougher path.
Fordham’s kind of in the Lower Bubble mix. Weird team, Fordham. I think NIT Bubbler fans want a blowout in this one in one direction or the other. Just get one of the two teams out of there and then deal with the rest tomorrow.
One complication for Cincy? If they win, they’re suddenly like UAB—a team who could knock an Upper Bubble team into the NIT but won’t affect the Lower Bubble.
The Upper Bubble?
- 6:00 PM EST: San Diego State vs. Utah State (CBS)
We can’t comprehend a scenario where Utah State makes the NIT after all the self-destruction they’ve done, but there’s a lot in this world we can’t comprehend. Maybe we’re bad comprehenders.
Bid Thieves
- 1:00 PM EST: Purdue vs. Ohio State (CBS)
- 5:00 PM EST: Memphis vs. Tulane (ESPN2)
If Ohio State wins the Big Ten Tournament, they’ll push everyone down a spot, affecting both the Upper and Lower NIT Bubbles. If Tulane wins the AAC, they’ll do the same. If Tulane doesn’t win the AAC but wins today? They might be back in the Lower Bubble mix themselves. Keep an eye on it.
Deep Cuts
- 1:30 PM EST: Penn @ Princeton (ESPNU)
- 3:30 PM EST: Indiana vs. Penn State (CBS)
Looking a step ahead: Princeton beating Penn is better for Yale’s auto-bid chances, Penn beating Princeton is therefore better for teams on the Lower Bubble. Penn State beating Indiana is better for Ohio State’s bid thief chances, Indiana beating Penn State is therefore better for teams on the Lower Bubble and worse for teams on the Upper Bubble who want to make the NIT (which is all of them, we all want to play in the NIT).
**
That’s it. Off we go.
