Is Rodney Terry on the hot seat? Well…
Texas is not in a terrible position, relative to Texas’s expectations. They’re aimed a little north of the bubble with a lot of season left to play. They just turned in a great 15 minutes of basketball against Houston. They’ve won a little on the road, neither of their two bad losses was completely out of bounds, and the upside is there to a point that Texas can expect to compete in nearly every game. To those not paying close attention, Texas is having a fine season. They’re underachieving a little, and Horns Down isn’t leaving the news, but the first-year head coach is having a year a lot of first-year head coaches might have in Austin.
The problem is what you see when you do look close.
It’d be one thing if Terry was unproven. If there was no track record on Rodney Terry and he’d gotten the job having only been a high-level assistant, one who kept the train on the rails as an interim in difficult and unique circumstances, Texas’s performance so far this year really would be fine. The roster is, after all, rather transitional, a few studs and a few projects and some stray pieces slapped on the sides to keep enough guys on the court. Terry couldn’t retain Ron Holland, but Holland was not fully Terry’s recruit. It was going to be a bumpy first year.
The issue is that Terry is not unproven. This is Rodney Terry’s eleventh season as a full-time Division I head coach. We know what we’re getting in Rodney Terry. What we’re getting is exactly this. It’s a team that isn’t quite as good as its talent. It’s a program that competes in the transfer portal and in high school recruiting but doesn’t dominate either space. Good college basketball coaches are the gas behind their programs. Rodney Terry is a steering wheel.
Texas accepted all of this when they hired Terry to the full-time gig. The underperformance might surprise some, but it’s doubtful that an athletic department as competent as the one in Austin is shocked that this team is a little bubbly. Whatever the motivation for the hire—avoiding coaching search exhaustion, saving booster capital for other priorities, hiring a good guy unlikely to provoke scandal, “doing the right thing” in rewarding a coach for what Terry accomplished—no one in Chris Del Conte’s office should be surprised by how the Longhorns are performing under Terry, and it’s doubtful anyone is. Still, unless Terry remakes himself and what he can do, Texas will eventually have to move on from Rodney Terry. The question, then, is when.
There are some solid recruits on the board. Tre Johnson is a five-star. The transfer portal, similarly, is always there, though Texas’s performance in it this offseason didn’t make too many waves. The program isn’t headed towards any sort of disaster. In another reassurance, even if the program did veer into a full-blown mess, there’s no reason recovery couldn’t be quick. Texas will always have the money to buy a big-name coach. It’s easier to build a good team quickly in college sports than it ever used to be. The facilities and environment and all those other bones in Austin are up there with the best in the country. There is no urgency.
That said, when the eyes do turn towards Texas basketball, they tend to turn with a full gaze. The broader understanding at Texas of how the basketball program is doing is not predicated on how the basketball program is doing. It’s based off of the high-level headline at the end of the year. Missed Tournament. Upset in First Round. Playing into the Second Weekend with an Interim Coach. Whatever the highest-level summary is of the Longhorns’ final situation, that will be how the majority of Texas fans interpret the program. Certain boosters undoubtedly better understand the space, but we have no indication the effective booster climate is any different from that of the fans. It’s fine for Rodney Terry’s future, then, if Texas is mediocre. What Rodney Terry needs is for no one to notice the mediocrity.
Here, then, is our best heuristic:
- If Texas stays ahead of the legitimate bubble in March (7-seed, 8-seed, 9-seed): Terry stays. It won’t have been a good coaching performance on the year, but Terry will escape notice.
- If Texas makes its desired tournament but gets upset in the first weekend (4-seed, 5-seed, 6-seed, loss to a double-digit seed): There are some cries about the same old Texas, but Terry’s actual performance—rallying from his own underwhelming start—is good enough that again, he stays.
- If Texas is actively on the bubble but does make its desired tournament: Again, there’s an outcry of surprise, but this probably only heats up the seat, and even that could be cooled instantly if Texas wins a game or two when the tournament begins.
- If Texas misses its desired tournament: It really depends who cares, and how much. There’s an argument that will be made for giving him time, for letting Tre Johnson get here and seeing what the transfer portal holds. That will be a bad argument. It’s also more or less the argument that won this past March.
In short, then, as long as the Horns Down saga doesn’t keep the lights on too bright, Terry is probably safe. Even if he misses that tournament, he isn’t assured of removal, and missing that tournament remains unlikely, narrow though it may be. There’ll be a little bit of hot seat talk, and diehards will be understandably furious. Terry, though, will probably stay. Texas might lose its third and fourth in a row these next few days, but West Virginia is coming to town next weekend. The wins over Baylor and Oklahoma likely staved off the full spiral. The seat is not hot.
Quick(er) Hitters
The football program announced the hire of Kenny Baker to the defensive line coach position. Also this week, Billy Glasscock—a key figure in the player personnel effort—has reportedly been hired to a similar role on Lane Kiffin’s staff at Mississippi. He’ll be a sort of “general manager” there, whether that’s his official title or not.
The Roundup
TCU’s on deck for the Longhorns, with that game in Fort Worth tomorrow afternoon. Moderate underdogs. The Horned Frogs have been winning their way through a little gauntlet, though, and it’s hard to keep that up. After TCU, Iowa State comes to town on Tuesday night. I wonder whether Tyrese Hunter still likes his decision to jump that ship.
In women’s hoops, Texas took care of Cincinnati at home last weekend and then got a big win at Baylor last night. The Longhorns are up to a 2-seed in ESPN’s bracketology ahead of a meeting with league-leading Kansas State on Sunday afternoon here in Austin. That game tips at 1:00 PM and will be broadcast on FS1.
The tennis teams won their ITA Indoor Regionals last weekend, each earning a trip to National Indoors. The men’s team hosts Stanford on Sunday. The women’s team hosts Wisconsin tomorrow and Georgia on Sunday.
The swimming and diving teams split at NC State (women won, men lost, as expected), weren’t scored against Duke (I don’t know swimming and diving, I don’t know how normal or abnormal that is and I’m not figuring out who really won), and are now home today and tomorrow against TCU and Rice (TCU both days, Rice only tomorrow). Today’s is the last home dual meet for Eddie Reese, who’s in his 46th year leading the men’s program.
There weren’t team scores for the track and field teams in Boston last weekend, but Olivia Howell and Eva Jess had the biggest days, getting into Texas’s top-15 lists in the 800m and the 5K. The programs are back in Albuquerque this weekend. Then, back to Boston next weekend. We continue to keep a loose eye on the Indoor National qualifying lists (men’s, women’s, we don’t know if once someone appears on it they’ve qualified or if there’s a cutoff that will materialize down the line).
The men’s golf team starts its main season in Hawaii next weekend, in the Amer Ari Invitational which begins Thursday and runs through Saturday. They were ranked 14th in the final coaches poll I’m seeing from the fall. The women’s team appears to be playing a tournament in California this weekend.
