Welcome to Bevo’s Fake Nuts, our weekly column on the Texas Longhorns.
With Texas’s loss last night, Rodney Terry’s chances of becoming the permanent head coach receded slightly. This is probably good for Texas. It’s easier to win at Texas than it is at UTEP and Fresno State, but Terry didn’t exactly inspire in his ten previous seasons as a head coach. He had a winning record in only half his seasons.
Texas remains a good basketball team. They’re 15-3, their losses have all come to teams in the top tritile of good leagues, two losses were ugly but last night’s wasn’t. Terry himself is 8-2 overall, 4-2 in conference, and 2-1 on the road. That’s good.
The problem is that if Terry succeeds with this loaded roster, Texas might keep him. There’s familiarity between him and the school. He spent seven years of his life at St. Ed’s and Bowie High. He assisted under Rick Barnes during the good times. If Terry gets this Texas team where Texas wants to be, some will want him back, and while Terry might do fine at Texas—he’s doing fine right now, and recruiting to Texas is easier than it is to El Paso or Fresno—there are better options out there. Nate Oats remains a man who lives on this planet.
What Texas fans want to optimize, then, is Terry doing as well as possible without keeping the job.
The thing about Texas sending a résumé consultant over to Shaka Smart’s office in March 2021 is that it showed what their rubric is. It isn’t consistent competitiveness. It isn’t winning the Big 12 tournament. It isn’t representing the university honorably. What Shaka Smart’s encouraged exit taught us was that the only thing that matters at Texas is winning games in the 68-team tournament they play in March and April on various neutral courts around the country.
This is either terrible or great news for Rodney Terry.
The thing about that 68-team tournament is that while one of the best consistent teams usually wins it, the early rounds are plagued by randomness. Winning that tournament? Sure, you could call it impressive. Making the “Elite” Eight, though? Saint Peter’s did that last year. Miami did that last year. Credit to Saint Peter’s, credit to Miami, but basing all employment decisions off those performances would leave you with Jim Larrañaga as your head coach, and it did leave Seton Hall with a questionable Shaheen Holloway as its guy. (Hell, this is what got Shaka Smart to Texas, and if you’re a hater, look how that turned out.)
Nevertheless, this tournament will decide Rodney Terry’s fate. If Texas turns in a great season but loses on the tournament’s first weekend? Adios. If Texas turns in a middling season but sneaks in, draws Providence in the opener and a 14-seed in the second round, and pulls off exactly one upset in the “Sweet” Sixteen? Welcome to millions of dollars of income a year, Coach.
Best of luck to all involved.
