The expectation, for portions of December, was that this was where Texas would be. The Big 12 Championship. The expectation was that they’d be playing Baylor as one of a tier of non-Baylor, non-Gonzaga teams with hopes of winning a certain tournament (not the NIT, sadly) over the weeks to come.
Well, Texas is here.
But not the way we thought.
For one thing, Texas advanced on a coronavirus cancelation, something that wouldn’t have been shocking in December, but wasn’t exactly in the plans. For another, it’s Oklahoma State, not Baylor, after the Pokes knocked off the Bears last night.
But the biggest difference is how far Texas has fallen in terms of game-to-game expectations. Rated the fourth-best team nationally by KenPom at one point, the Longhorns are currently 25th in that metric, exactly where they ended 2019, the year they won the national championship (for those of us who refer to the NIT winner as the national champion). They are not among those expected to contend to win that certain tournament. They’re just hoping to get to the second weekend.
But at the same time, against Texas Tech, the magic from December was back. Matt Coleman was making plays. Kai Jones looked of another world at times. And beside those familiar features, new developments bolstered the effort. Jericho Sims demonstrated the fruits of a blossoming. Jase Febres was healthy and contributing.
So while it isn’t December’s Texas that enters tonight’s game, it’s still a good one, with a chance to grab a noteworthy trophy for the program (and more importantly, for Shaka Smart).
The Game
Texas vs. Oklahoma State
The Time
5:00 PM Texas Time
The Television
ESPN (the worldwide leader in sports—ever heard of it?)
The Opponent
Oklahoma State. The Horns split with the Pokes in the regular season. In December, Greg Brown outdueled Cade Cunningham in Austin in a game in which Texas got to the line with ease but struggled to get production from some key figures. In February, in one of the ugliest games imaginable (though another in which Texas mercifully made its free throws), the Longhorns lost in two overtimes. The two, one would say, are evenly matched, and at this point, that’s probably a fair assessment. Gone are the days early in the year in which the Big 12 had a quorum at the top of KenPom. Then, it was Baylor, the pack, and the rest. Now, it’s Baylor, the pack, and the rest, but the pack’s grown to include Oklahoma State, the pack’s from 20 to 30 instead of being around 5th and 15th, and even Baylor’s slipped, closing the regular season strong but turning in a lackluster performance in Kansas City.
Anyway, fairly even match tonight.
What Texas Needs to Do
A Big 12 Tournament title would look pretty good on Shaka Smart’s résumé. Just saying. NIT…Maui…Big 12. Hard to think of three better tournaments to have won while at Texas.
On the Court
Cade Cunningham is, of course, the dude for Oklahoma State, and the possible first NBA pick does the heavy lifting for the Cowboys offensively. But where the Pokes really excel is the other end of the court.
Oklahoma State has one of the better shooting defenses in the country. They block a good number of shots. They don’t yield all that many free throws (though again, Texas had success getting to the stripe in the previous matchups).
Where Oklahoma State’s susceptible defensively is the glass, and that’s good for Texas. Texas, led by Sims and Jones, is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. They probably can’t beat Oklahoma State on putbacks alone, but putbacks can be a big part of the recipe.
Overall, of course, the answer to what Texas needs to do on the court is both simpler and more elaborate than “stop Cade Cunningham and generate second chances.” Texas needs to play a complete game to earn that trophy.
But if they do play a complete game, and if they can find bits of what worked so well for them early in the season, it could be a banner evening for the Texas Longhorns men’s basketball program.
In the literal sense.
