When does Champ Week really begin? Is it when the first conference tournament game tips off? Is it when the Monday hits leading up to Selection Sunday? Is it when ESPN says it does?
I say it’s when we finally get a little Arch Madness.
Let’s hit the day’s happenings.
Game of the NITe
- 7:00 PM EST: Michigan @ Illinois (ESPN)
Hunter Dickinson, your NIT lesson awaits.
Maybe.
The deal with Michigan is that they have two regular season games left and they’re going to be underdogs in both, but combined, they’re expected right now to win one of the two. Lose tonight, and they’re expected to lose both, but right now, they’re expected to split.
Joe’s model says that split should leave Michigan smack dab on the bubble. If we’d updated our bracketology today, they’d be on the Bid Thief Seat. This is pretty good news for Michigan fans. If a split leaves them smack dab on the bubble and a loss leaves them worse than that, there’s upside here. Err, downside. There’s NIT-side.
For Illinois, the NIT case just got stronger on the basis of any old hats in the NCA* *********t selection room thinking Matthew Mayer is a kid gone too far after his caffeine poisoning. Others in the room might not say it out loud, but having arguably your most important player miss a few days of practice because he drank six energy drinks in a day in order to enjoy video games under a “caffeine-induced euphoria?” That’s not a serious basketball program. That’s one of ours.
So, yes, we still believe in Illinois. The path is so, so difficult, but lose out and we think they’re in the conversation.
UNC, Wisconsin
- 9:00 PM EST: Arizona State @ UCLA (ESPN)
- 9:00 PM EST: Purdue @ Wisconsin (FS1)
- 11:00 PM EST: Arizona @ USC (ESPN)
You want to know the kind of shit you end up thinking about if you decide to become an NIT blogger?
Wisconsin is poised to have way too many Q1 wins to make the NIT. I think our last estimate had them finishing at seven. We need them to stop picking those up, of course, but we could also stand to see some erased. One of the candidates? A neutral-site win over USC, who’s 44th in NET. We want USC 51st or worse so that that’s a Q2 game for the Badgers.
At the same time, though, a really huge blowout loss for USC could push them on the other side of the bubble themselves, displacing Wisconsin upwards.
The gate is so narrow.
Arizona State’s also on the bubble, and you’d have to think the Sun Devils winning one in Los Angeles this weekend would be enough to push them up past our grasp. We would love that. All due respect to ASU, you would probably heavily attend the NIT Final Four, but…actually, maybe we should rethink this. That attendance sounds nice.
Oh, and Wisconsin actually plays tonight. Must-lose.
Upper Bubble
- 7:00 PM EST: Rutgers @ Minnesota (FS1)
- 8:00 PM EST: FAU @ Rice (ESPN+)
- 9:00 PM EST: Memphis @ SMU (ESPN2)
- 11:00 PM EST: Cal @ Oregon (FS1)
Rutgers could get in the conversation with a loss, probably out with a win.
FAU is already going to have another loss if they’re an NIT possibility at all, so remember that, but this would help as well.
Memphis could get back into the picture with a loss. They aren’t too far out.
Oregon is trying to work their way up into that other tournament. This could put a stop to that behavior.
Lower Bubble
- 7:00 PM EST: UCF @ Temple (ESPNU)
- 8:00 PM EST: MTSU @ North Texas (CBSSN)
- 11:00 PM EST: Washington State @ Washington (ESPNU)
Huge ones, and none bigger than the one in Seattle, which Washington State most likely needs if they’re going to finish at or above .500. The Cougs enter tonight an even 15–15, and it’s hard to win twice in a conference tournament. Much harder than winning once. The pressure’s on, and it’s only heightened by Washington’s own fringe NIT chance. This is what we mean when we call it the Crapple Cup.
UCF needs wins, but this road one offers a nice opportunity. We could be close to UCF playing at Florida in the first round. Their AD would be so pissed.
North Texas doesn’t have many paths to miss the NIT on the high side, but they have potential bad losses remaining, including this one. MTSU, as we noted in Bubble Watch, has a weird wildcard case. They could really strengthen that here.
Lower Bubble AND Auto-Bid Implications
Nothing. The WAC and the A-10 are idle, it appears.
Just Auto-Bid Implications
The Big West:
- 9:00 PM EST: UC Santa Barbara @ UC Davis (ESPN+)
- 10:00 PM EST: UC Irvine @ UC Riverside (ESPN+)
There’s a three-way tie right now atop the Big West between UCI, UCR, and UCSB, with Cal State Fullerton and Hawaii a game back. We aren’t worrying about those two right now—Fullerton plays two fewer games than everyone else, for injury or Covid reasons we presume, so we don’t even know if they’re an option—but UCSB split its games with UCI and got swept by UCR. Meaning, UCR’s the one controlling their fate. We think. We’re pretty sure. We’re not 100% positive.
The MEAC:
- 9:00 PM EST: Norfolk State @ Howard (ESPNU)
This is the MEAC regular season championship, by happy accident. NIT bubbler fans want Norfolk State to win it.
The SWAC:
- 8:00 PM EST: Alabama A&M @ Grambling State
- 8:30 PM EST: Alcorn State @ Mississippi Valley State
Two games remain for most SWAC teams, including both Grambling and Alcorn, who are tied at the top of the league. Alcorn holds the tiebreaker, but Grambling’s the better team on paper.
Really Low Bubble
- 7:00 PM EST: Wichita State @ Houston (ESPN2)
- 9:00 PM EST: Stanford @ Oregon State (P12N)
Wichita State is hanging around the idea of hanging around. This would make us give them a long look. Stanford, meanwhile, needs a lot of things to go their way, including probably the elimination of the invisible .500 rule, but we’ll track them, because we’d hate to leave you caught off guard.
Conference Tournaments
The MVC:
- 1:00 PM EST: Northern Iowa vs. Illinois State (ESPN+)
- 3:30 PM EST: Indiana State vs. Evansville (ESPN+)
- 7:00 PM EST: Murray State vs. Valpo (ESPN+)
- 9:30 PM EST: Missouri State vs. UIC (ESPN+)
Indiana State could also slot into the Really Low Bubble section, but we don’t think they actually have a chance. What’s really happening here is that we’re waiting on whom Bradley and Drake will play. It appears—unless there’s some sneaky reseeding, but I don’t know the MVC to do that—that Bradley will play the winner of Illinois State and UNI while Drake will play the winner of Murray State and Valpo. Drake’s in the mix for an at-large NIT bid. Bradley would be an automatic bid. So if you aren’t a fan of one of those schools and you want your team to find a home in the NIT, you want Bradley to win this tournament and Drake to lose right away. Meaning, you want Murray State and Illinois State to win those games. Maybe get Indiana State out of there, too.
The OVC:
- 7:30 PM EST: Tennessee State vs. SEMO (ESPN+)
- 10:00 PM EST: Tennessee Martin vs. SIU Edwardsville (ESPN+)
Morehead State’s the auto-bid pursuer here, and they’ll play the SEMO/TSU winner. NIT bubbler fans probably want that to be Tennessee State, but if it’s SEMO they’ll be playing Morehead for their third game in three days, so it’s close to a tossup.
The ASUN:
- 7:00 PM EST: Lipscomb @ Kennesaw State (ESPN+)
- 7:00 PM EST: Eastern Kentucky @ Liberty (ESPN+)
Could we get our first NIT team of the year? Could we get two??
Kennesaw State is in with a loss. That’s automatic. They won the ASUN, they get an automatic bid if they lose this tournament. Liberty is probably also in with a loss, though, as an at-large bid. If both win, the ASUN’s a one-bid league, but if both lose? Two-bid ASUN. The dream. Possible this happened in 2019 but let me check no it did not, Liberty played in the other tournament that year and it was just Lipscomb hanging with us. In fact, Liberty has yet to play in an NIT. That feels inevitable if we give it enough time. Maybe this is the year.
The Sun Belt:
- 12:30 PM EST: South Alabama vs. Appalachian State (ESPN+)
- 3:00 PM EST: Troy vs. Arkansas State (ESPN+)
- 6:00 PM EST: Old Dominion vs. Texas State (ESPN+)
- 8:30 PM EST: Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana Monroe (ESPN+)
Big ones!
Well.
They set up big ones.
Our four Sun Belt contenders are Southern Miss (in line for the auto bid), Marshall (medium shot at an at-large bid), Louisiana (would need a miracle but miracles happen), and James Madison (ditto Louisiana). All have a bye through this second round. The bracket is set up such that Southern Miss plays the South Alabama/Appalachian State winner, JMU plays the Troy/Arkansas State winner, Marshall plays the Old Dominion/Texas State winner, and ULL plays the Georgia Southern/ULM winner. NIT bubbler fans want Southern Miss winning this tournament and the other three—especially Marshall—dropping as quickly as possible, so they should probably pull for Appalachian State, Troy, Old Dominion, and Georgia Southern. (They also don’t want Marshall/JMU/ULL blowing out mediocre teams instead of just bad teams, so there’s some risk on those last three, but this is our official recommendation for the Nebraska fans reading this, to whom: We see you. And we support your dreams.)
The Patriot League:
- 7:00 PM EST: Loyola Maryland @ Colgate (ESPN+)
- 7:00 PM EST: Boston University @ Army (ESPN+)
- 7:00 PM EST: Lafayette @ Lehigh (ESPN+)
- 7:00 PM EST: American @ Navy (ESPN+)
Colgate’s in the NIT with a loss.
I bet any BU/Army matchups were tense back during Iraq War protests.
The WCC:
- 9:00 PM EST: Portland vs. San Diego (WCCN)
- 11:30 PM EST: Pacific vs. Pepperdine (WCCN)
(I’m assuming these are on WCC Network but the WCC website has Portland and San Diego each playing a vague entity called “WCC Tournament” and has a broadcast provider listed for neither.)
The ladder starts tonight in the WCC, and it’ll last through Tuesday, with teams of interest to us entering the situation tomorrow when BYU tips off. BYU is probably out of it, but they’re close enough and good enough to have eyes kept on them, and they’ll play the Portland/USD winner, with LMU also on their side of the bracket (LMU should have comparable eyes on them to what BYU’s getting). Santa Clara’s on the San Francisco/Pacific/Pepperdine side.
The Horizon League:
- 7:00 PM EST: Oakland @ Northern Kentucky (ESPN+)
- 8:00 PM EST: Detroit Mercy @ Youngstown State (ESPN+)
- 8:00 PM EST: Robert Morris @ Cleveland State (ESPN+)
- 8:00 PM EST: Wright State @ Milwaukee (ESPN+)
Antoine Davis tries to send a bunch of Penguins to the NIT.
Sounds like a great idea for a children’s book.
Children love penguins.
Antoine Davis, leading scorer in the country, heads to Youngstown to try to eliminate the Horizon League champions from the conference tournament. Elsewhere, a bunch of other teams try to get to go play in Indianapolis in this tournament’s last three games. (Interesting that we call it the Final Four rather than the Final Three, given the number of games played. Is this because of No Child Left Behind? We are all over the Bush era today.) NIT bubbler fans want YSU to have an easy path, so NIT bubbler fans want the visitors to win except for Wright State, who is probably better than Milwaukee.
**
That’s that, and you’re a rat! Just kidding. I was on the children’s book theme still. I’m thinking that could be the spicy penguin’s catchphrase.
See you tomorrow!
