1. Not the worst way to lose.
The bullpen wasn’t taxed too heavily. Javy Báez pinch hit, which is a good sign for his health. Jake Arrieta remained a slightly below-replacement level pitcher. Nothing too terrible happened. It was just a loss.
2. That was the most winnable of the series, though.
That hurts. Still, the Cubs are in a fine spot if they can take even just one of the next three. That’s what sweeps do for a baseball team. Just as the Padres sweep made losing three of four in San Francisco tolerable, sweeping the Cardinals makes a similar outcome this week tolerable if it does come to pass. Of course, the Cubs would really like to not get swept, and if there’s a chance to win this game they should go all-in on that chance with Jacob deGrom facing…Keegan Thompson?…tomorrow night, but overall: It hurts. It’s fine. At the same time.
3. Spin Rate Watch: Dillon Maples, Tommy Nance
Others have noted this already (I saw it on Bleacher Nation), but both Maples and Nance’s spin rates were down. For Maples, it was with his four-seamer, with no noteworthy velocity drop to accompany the season-low RPM on that pitch. For Nance, it’s been mostly the curveball (this is the third straight outing it’s been noticeable for him), but his whole arsenal’s been down without too big a shift in velocity. So, keep an eye on these guys. We don’t know what they are or aren’t or were or weren’t doing, but we could figure the Cubs would have some guys using sticky substances and having to subsequently adjust. Every team will be affected somehow, and this doesn’t mean these guys can’t be serviceable if they are, indeed, now switching away from enhancing their grip/doctoring baseballs.
***
Around the Division:
The Reds did the Cubs a solid (or so it seems), taking down the Brewers in that series opener, 10-2. The Cardinals beat the Marlins, 4-2.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
T-1. Milwaukee: 38-28, 55.2%
T-1. Cubs: 38-28, 28.7%
3. Cincinnati: 33-31, 10.6%
4. St. Louis: 33-33, 5.5%
5. Pittsburgh: 23-42, 0.0%
The Brewers trot out Brett Anderson to face Luis Castillo this evening. Kwang Hyun Kim returns from the IL for the Cardinals to oppose Trevor Rogers.
Up Next:
Game 2
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. New York (NL)
When:
6:10 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Citi Field
Weather:
Temperatures in the 70’s at gametime, wind blowing mostly across from left to right but perhaps a little in at about ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Alec Mills vs. Taijuan Walker
The Opponent:
After a stellar 2020 ERA-wise (2.70) that was suspect abreast its fundamentals (5.03 xERA, 4.56 FIP), Walker is doing all the things well this season. His xERA’s at 3.39. His FIP’s at 2.84. And he’s still outperforming both, with a 2.07 ERA.
His worst start of the year, to date, probably came against the Cubs back in April, when he walked six in fewer than four full innings.
Don’t count on him doing that again.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +130 underdogs, with the Mets at -140 on the moneyline. That comes out to a Cubs win probability of maybe 41%. The over/under’s at 8½ and leans towards the under.
Cubs News:
I haven’t seen anything too noteworthy.
Cubs Thoughts:
We’ll see what Mills can do tonight and (hopefully, because this would mean it was going well) how stretched out he is. He hasn’t faced more than ten batters in an outing since April, but he was out for the back half of May. His season-long appearance was the four-inning start in Milwaukee on April 13th, which was also his only start thus far this year. Overall, it might be a long night for the bullpen ahead of quite possibly a bullpen day tomorrow, so buckle up for some strangeness. Best reasonable case is probably that he goes four, exits with a three-run lead, and the bullpen closes it out without having to burn more than four guys for tomorrow.
