Holy buckets and holy cats, there is a lot on our docket today.
Here’s what’s up. (Warning: Some games appear twice. Some could appear twice, but don’t. None appear three times. If you see one appear three times, call your dad and tell him to get his baseball bat.)
Game of the NITe of the Weekend
- 6:00 PM EST: Pitt @ Miami (ACCN)
We have a chance at history, friends. We have a chance to make straight the crooked places, and to make the rough ways smooth. We have a chance to deal the ACC the honor of earning an NIT automatic bid.
For this to happen, Pitt needs to win the ACC. This is unlikely, but simple. They have to beat Miami. From there, Pitt would then need to lose in the ACC Tournament, probably immediately and possibly badly.
But hey: One step at a time.
UNC, Wisconsin
- 6:30 PM EST: Duke @ UNC (ESPN)
Wisconsin doesn’t play today, but UNC does, in a game analysts are rightly calling one of the biggest in the history of one of college basketball’s usually less consequential rivalries. UNC isn’t in with a loss or out with a win, but it’s that sort of situation. There’s a lot of uncertainty, and there’s a lot outside of the Tar Heels hands. But that’s the kind of pressure under which they say they thrive. Let’s give them a chance to prove it. Go get that loss, guys!
Upper Bubble
- 12:00 PM EST: Iowa State @ Baylor (ESPN2)
- 2:00 PM EST: Tennessee @ Auburn (ESPN)
- 2:00 PM EST: Kansas State @ West Virginia (ESPN+)
- 3:30 PM EST: Mississippi @ Mizzou (SECN)
- 4:00 PM EST: Stanford @ Oregon (CBS)
- 5:00 PM EST: UNLV @ Nevada (MWN)
- 6:00 PM EST: Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech (ESPN2)
- 7:00 PM EST: FAU @ Louisiana Tech (ESPN+)
- 7:30 PM EST: UConn @ Villanova (FOX)
- 8:30 PM EST: Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt (SECN)
- 9:00 PM EST: Boise State @ Utah State (MWN)
- 11:00 PM EST: Arizona State @ USC (FS1)
Running through these quickly:
Iowa State is probably safe from us but is getting in more and more danger. Auburn is suddenly in a lot of danger from us but could escape with the upset. West Virginia is probably safe from us but others are saying they aren’t and we don’t want to look like idiots. Mizzou, we think, is safe from us but this would be the kind of loss that makes a lot of people reassess a lot of things (not those things, Nader—get out of here).
Oregon’s in a comfortable spot today where a loss probably wouldn’t pull them out and a win almost definitely wouldn’t pull them out. That’s why we call it the Sweet Spot.
UNLV’s trying to get in from the Lower Bubble, but this appears here because Nevada’s more in our focus on the Upper Bubble. We appreciate all NIT contenders, but we do focus a little more on the ones we might see in Las Vegas. For the Final Four, I mean. I know what the LV stands for.
Oklahoma State just needs to lose to be rather safely in our embrace. Texas Tech, though, can say the same. We don’t think a win would push the Red Raiders out, but we did listen to a lot of sentimental Americana country yesterday, so count us concerned.
FAU might not be one bad loss away from the NIT, but they can’t be more than two.
Villanova is suddenly in the odd position of wanting a loss here. Congratulations, Wildcats. You are on a runaway train.
Mississippi State’s square on the bubble, needing losses, but Vanderbilt is sneakily getting close. To get a little nutty and bolty, Vandy does badly in seeding metrics and well in selection metrics, meaning their seed on our NIT Bracketology can be deceiving. They’re closer to that other tournament than anyone dare admit. (Which is weird, because usually people say everyone’s close to that other tournament.)
Utah State could become one of the best teams in history to get an NIT bid, but they may need a loss tonight to do it. Boise State? Probably not with us this year. It’s ok, Broncos. We understand. You need to explore. We’ll be here.
And to cap it all off, ASU and USC are gonna bubble all over each other in Los Angeles. Bubbles!
Lower Bubble
- 12:00 PM EST: Seton Hall @ Providence (FOX)
- 1:00 PM EST: UAB @ Charlotte (Stadium)
- 2:00 PM EST: St. John’s @ Marquette (FOX)
- 2:00 PM EST: Duquesne @ Fordham (ESPN+)
- 2:00 PM EST: MTSU @ UTEP (ESPN+)
- 3:00 PM EST: TCU @ Oklahoma (ESPN+)
- 3:00 PM EST: Western Kentucky @ North Texas (Stadium)
- 4:00 PM EST: Florida State @ Virginia Tech (ESPN2)
- 4:00 PM EST: San Jose State @ Air Force (MWN)
- 5:00 PM EST: Wake Forest @ Syracuse (ESPN+)
- 5:30 PM EST: Utah @ Colorado (P12N)
- 6:00 PM EST: LSU @ Florida (SECN)
- 6:00 PM EST: Drake vs. Southern Illinois (CBSSN)
- 6:00 PM EST: Marshall vs. Texas State (ESPN+)
- 8:00 PM EST: Notre Dame @ Clemson (ACCN)
- 8:30 PM EST: Louisiana vs. Georgia Southern (ESPN+)
- 10:00 PM EST: Loyola Marymount vs. BYU (ESPN2)
- 12:30 AM EST: Santa Clara vs. San Francisco (ESPN2)
Providence is on the Upper Bubble, and this would be the kind of loss that makes people realize what they’ve been up to (excellent sneak attack by the Friars), but Seton Hall’s closer to the Lower Bubble cut line. So, we put them here. Why am I talking about this? Providence wants to lose, Seton Hall wants to win, the question at this point is just whether the Big East is or isn’t a team league.
UAB probably has a loss to give, but if I was a UAB fan the potential for a lot of automatic bids would make me nervous.
St. John’s needs a win, Duquesne and Fordham and MTSU are all longshots needing a win, Oklahoma’s a longshot needing a win but deserves a different kind of mention because for them it’s just the Invisible .500 Rule. North Texas is in the UAB boat. Those two stick together. Different vibes, same league, similar colors. That is the short version of the UAB/North Texas working relationship at this moment.
Virginia Tech needs to keep winning, by which I mean they should start winning a little bit more and this would help be a start. San Jose State needs to win a whole lot, but the smiles are there. Smiles for Miles, baby.
Wake needs a win, playing NIT also-ran Syracuse in the north.
Utah and Colorado are in a bubble clash for the ages that could realistically end with both of them out of the NIT. They really need to hope no one on the committee watches this game. Thankfully, they probably will see that hope rewarded.
Florida’s done great work to stabilize in recent days, but they need one more win. Take this one, they’re probably in. Lose this one, it’s probably curtains. Alligator-skin curtains. Ever seen those? Me neither. They sound ugly.
Drake and Marshall are each trying to get to their conference championship game and then lose it. Such is life when you are good (for a mid-major) but not great (for a mid-major). Similar situation for ULL, but longer odds.
Clemson could be back in a pickle with a loss, Loyola Marymount and BYU are kind of playing an elimination game (in addition to literally playing a WCC Tournament elimination game), Santa Clara needs a win to feel safe, even if safety is just an illusion as far as the NIT goes and time will one day kill us all.
Auto-Bid Situations
Big West:
- 9:00 PM EST: Hawaii @ UC Santa Barbara (ESPNU)
- 9:00 PM EST: Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Irvine (ESPN+)
I think this is as simple as UCI winning the Big West with a win or a UCSB loss, and UCSB winning the Big West with a win and a UCI loss.
Ivy League:
- 12:00 PM EST: Penn @ Princeton (ESPNews)
- 7:30 PM EST: Yale @ Brown (ESPN+)
Yale wins the Ivy League with a win. Penn or Princeton wins with a Yale loss.
SWAC:
- 6:30 PM EST: Alcorn State @ Arkansas Pine Bluff
- 6:30 PM EST: Alabama State @ Grambling State
Alcorn State wins the SWAC with a win or a Grambling loss. Grambling wins with a win and an Alcorn loss.
Really Low Bubble
- 12:00 PM EST: Ohio State @ Michigan State (ESPN)
If Ohio State loses today, they are officially eliminated from reaching .500 overall without accidentally making the NCA* *********t.
Conference Tournaments
No OVC here. For our purposes, that tournament is an exhibition now. Read about it somewhere else. (Same continues to go for the NEC.)
Arch Madness:
- 3:30 PM EST: Bradley vs. Indiana State (CBSSN)
- 6:00 PM EST: Drake vs. Southern Illinois (CBSSN)
Just tough basketball games. Tough, tough basketball games. Arch Madness is serious business. Bradley’s chasing the automatic bid, Drake’s chasing an at-large bid, fairly straightforward.
WCC:
- 10:00 PM EST: Loyola Marymount vs. BYU (ESPN2)
- 12:30 AM EST: Santa Clara vs. San Francisco (ESPN2)
Covered this above as well, but as a reminder because I always need one: Santa Clara’s on Gonzaga’s side of the bracket, LMU and BYU are with Saint Mary’s.
Sun Belt:
- 12:30 PM EST: Southern Miss vs. South Alabama (ESPN+)
- 3:00 PM EST: James Madison vs. Troy (ESPN+)
- 6:00 PM EST: Marshall vs. Texas State (ESPN+)
- 8:30 PM EST: Louisiana vs. Georgia Southern (ESPN+)
Southern Miss is the auto-bid chaser here. Marshall, ULL, and JMU have NIT at-large chances in decreasing order.
SoCon:
- 12:00 PM EST: Furman vs. Mercer (ESPN+)
- 2:30 PM EST: Western Carolina vs. East Tennessee State (ESPN+)
- 6:00 PM EST: Samford vs. Chattanooga (ESPN+)
- 8:30 PM EST: UNC Greensboro vs. Wofford (ESPN+)
Furman chases the auto-bid. NIT bubble fans would like them to win, and they would like the better teams (UNCG and Samford, mostly) to lose to grease those skids.
Big South:
- 12:00 PM EST: UNC Asheville vs. South Carolina Upstate (ESPN+)
- 2:00 PM EST: Radford vs. Campbell (ESPN+)
UNC Asheville gets two more chances to lose. The elimination of Longwood makes that tougher. USC Upstate winning in dramatic fashion doesn’t really affect it that much, actually, but it feels like something we should mention. That shot was sweet. No NIT chance for that school but it was a sweet shot.
America East:
- 1:00 PM EST: Bryant @ New Hampshire (ESPN+)
- 1:00 PM EST: Binghamton @ UMBC (ESPN+)
- 4:00 PM EST: Maine @ UMass Lowell (ESPN+)
- 7:00 PM EST: NJIT @ Vermont (ESPN+)
Vermont’s the auto-bid pursuer, UMass Lowell’s the biggest threat to make that happen.
Summit League:
- 7:00 PM EST: Oral Roberts vs. North Dakota (ESPN+)
- 9:30 PM EST: South Dakota State vs. Omaha (ESPN+)
Oral Roberts is chasing an auto bid, and also the prospective of making everyone pitch a fit that a team that went 18–0 in its league’s regular season has to play in the NIT when the league could absolutely decide to not hold a tournament.
CAA:
- 12:00 PM EST: William & Mary vs. Elon (FloSports)
- 2:30 PM EST: Drexel vs. Monmouth (FloSports)
- 6:00 PM EST: North Carolina A&T vs. Stony Brook (FloSports)
- 8:30 PM EST: Delaware vs. Northeastern (FloSports)
No action from Charleston or Hofstra, who’ll play the NCAT/Stony Brook and WM/Elon winners, respectively.
Big Sky:
- 7:30 PM EST: Northern Arizona vs. Idaho (ESPN+)
- 10:00 PM EST: Portland State vs. Northern Colorado (ESPN+)
Eastern Washington (NIT auto-bid pursuer) plays the NAU/Idaho winner. Montana State (tournament favorite) plays the PSU/NoCo winner.
**
How excited are you? Yeah. Me too.
