1. They threw a no-hitter.
They did it. It wasn’t the quintessential no-hitter, but it was a no-hitter, and it’s the kind of thing that’s got to help at least a little in a momentum sense. Instead of being a night where Zach Davies was wild and even the bullpen was a little wild and the Cubs had to scratch out a win but hey it was a win, it was a no-hitter. Zach Davies has now been involved in a no-hitter, and he’s done it this year, and the triumvirate has too, and that’s pretty darn fun for them and us and the guys in the locker room.
2. Zach Davies handled that well.
I was a little worried when I didn’t see him front and center in the celebration (I may have just missed him—they all wear the same thing, after all), but his quotes after the game were professional and reasonable, and at least from the words, he sounded very excited and proud, as he should be.
On the one hand, it was an obvious decision for Ross (I was wondering if they’d pinch-hit for him in the fifth if Sogard got on base), but on the other, Davies is a professional athlete and therefore probably rather ambitious and competitive, and you want him to be those things rather than a guy who, after four no-hit innings, says, “Hey boss, better send someone up to hit for me here.” Ideally, you want Davies to be somewhere in between that guy and someone who, say, tries to pitch through a stomach bug and gets rocked and doesn’t save the bullpen anyway, and while that’s a wide range, it does sound like Davies is somewhere in that realm, and it doesn’t sound like there’s anything to be concerned with as far as his contentedness goes.
3. Willson Contreras!
What a night for the cannonball. Catches a no-hitter, hits the home run that lets everyone breathe, gets to hold his hand to his ear to the crowd as he walks down the tunnel. Love that for him.
4. The Dodgers aren’t in great shape.
Albert Pujols has been surprisingly solid compared to recent years (he’s got a 116 wRC+ since joining a team that actually plays in Los Angeles County), but seeing him out there was a good reminder that the Dodgers aren’t having the best time. They miss Corey Seager. They’ve missed Cody Bellinger. They’re probably missing Joc Pederson and Kike Hernández and Edwin Ríos, all at least a little bit. Their lineup’s still been great (second in baseball in position player fWAR), and they obviously have wonderful pitching, but there’s something off about the Dodgers, and the fact they’re relying on Pujols putting up one of his best stretches of the last half-decade isn’t a great sign. Also, they’re still four and a half games back of the Giants and they’re even with the Padres by that measure, so…we’ll see. They’re good enough that they could be in first place in a week and it wouldn’t be a surprise, but they’re also having a hard time, and in a marginal sense, that does create a little blood-in-the-water situation in which the NL is at least a little more open than it looked at the beginning of the year. And with that, it doesn’t hurt that the Cubs are 4-0 against the Dodgers so far, and 4-2 against the Padres, and 4-3 against the Mets.
***
Around the Division:
The Cardinals lost to the Pirates 8-2 as Carlos Martínez walked seven, gave up a home run, and only struck out two. Speaking of teams that aren’t having a good time.
The Reds won their opener with Atlanta 5-3, and they’re now back up over .500.
The Brewers were off.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
T-1. Milwaukee: 42-33, 56.9%
T-1. Cubs: 42-33, 29.2%
3. Cincinnati: 37-36, 10.9%
4. St. Louis: 36-39, 2.9%
5. Pittsburgh: 27-46, 0.0%
Corbin Burnes opens the Brewers’ set with the Rockies today, opposing Jon Gray. Vladimir Gutierrez faces Drew Smyly in Game 2 of that series. The Cardinals turn to Kwang Hyun Kim while Wil Crowe goes for the Pirates.
Up Next:
Game 2
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Los Angeles
When:
9:10 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Chavez Ravine
Weather:
Temperatures around seventy degrees, wind blowing lightly out (five miles per hour range).
Starting Pitchers:
Jake Arrieta vs. Tony Gonsolin
The Opponent:
Gonsolin, whom I believe was technically a rookie last year, is up to almost 100 career innings and has a 2.63 ERA to show for it, with a 3.05 FIP and an xERA somewhere in the 3.50 range. He’s not fully stretched out right now—has faced a maximum of eighteen batters in a game this year, has yet to work through four innings—but he’s a good pitcher and the Cubs will likely need a strong outing from Arrieta to get it to the bullpen in a competitive place.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +160 underdogs, with the Dodgers at -175. That’s about a 36% chance of a win. Over/under’s at 9½. It favors the under.
Cubs News:
I haven’t seen anything too noteworthy.
Cubs Thoughts:
The no-hitter is exciting. The win is relieving. No chance of a four-game sweep now, and a split becomes the most likely outcome when it was close between that and a series loss before.
For those curious, Davies’s xERA is now a ridiculous 6.19, but his FIP’s 4.60, and generally those track equally in their predictivity while, for whatever it’s worth, Davies has outperformed his career FIP and his career FIP is much better than his career xERA. He’s an unusual pitcher in today’s game, so perhaps we can discount xERA more for him than we can for other pitchers.
