The favorite is alive.
Dayton gave Memphis a scare, but the Tigers pulled away down the stretch, and with Mississippi State knocking off Saint Louis, we have an even clearer NIT favorite than before. In Joe’s latest simulations, Penny Hardaway claims his national title roughly 24% of the time, with no other team below 8% or above 15%.
It was a tight first round. Every game was relatively close. Every team looked relatively motivated. It might not be the NIT we’re used to, with home gyms rocking, a dense first round, and the promised trip to New York at the end of the tunnel, but Frisco and Denton have not disappointed in the slightest. In fact, I’d say they’ve exceeded expectations.
Speaking of expectations, the average entry in our NIT Bracket Challenge has lost just slightly more than it’s won, sitting at 3.97 correct out of a possible eight. The NIT is an enigma.
Other notes today:
- Thursday is going to be lit. Beginning at 6 PM Eastern, we’ve got the four biggest games of many of these players’ lives (and some of our own lives, frankly), often running concurrently. Memphis figures to be favored over Boise State. Colorado State and NC State should be a tossup. Richmond should be favored over Mississippi State. Louisiana Tech should be a narrow favorite in the C-USA rematch with Western Kentucky. The field may not be stacked in talent. But it’s stacked in heart.
- No WNIT games today. They’ll resume tomorrow with their quarterfinals. In Rockford, it’s Northern Iowa and Saint Louis. In Charlotte, it’s Delaware and Villanova. In Memphis, it’s Colorado and Mississippi. In Fort Worth, it’s Rice and California Baptist.
- Enjoy your day off of meaningful basketball. You’ve earned it.
