Over the 32 days leading up to college basketball season, we’re profiling 32 different teams who could be in the NIT mix, aided in this effort by those who know them best (or the closest we could get). Today, Cole Amundson responds by email to our questions about Wisconsin.
Cole Amundson is a contributing editor for Busting Brackets. He can be found on Twitter/X at @playformarch.
Here’s the full list of 32 for 32’s published so far, with links:
- Auburn, with the Sickos CBB Committee
- BYU, with Mitch Harper
- Cincinnati, with Zach Fries
- Dayton, with Tyler Cronin
- Duquesne, with Tristan Freeman
- Indiana, with Matt Cox
- Iona, with Sam Federman
- Iowa State, with Joe Stunardi
- James Madison, with Bennett Conlin
- Loyola, with Ky McKeon
- Michigan, with the Sickos CBB Committee
- Missouri, with Jim Root
- North Texas, with Harry Miers
- Northwestern, with John Templon
- Notre Dame, with Stuart McGrath
- Ohio State, with Mark Titus
- Oregon State, with Andy Dieckhoff
- Penn State, with DJ Bauer
- South Carolina, with Brian Rauf
- St. Bonaventure, with SBUnfurled
- St. John’s, with the Sickos CBB Committee
- Syracuse, with the Marshall Street Podcast
- Texas, with NIT Stu
- Utah, with Andrew Crowley
- Virginia Tech, with Ken Pomeroy
- Washington State, with Dave Andersen
- Wisconsin, with Cole Amundson
The Barking Crow: Wisconsin was so very close to NIT glory last year in Las Vegas, only to see it fall apart in the final minutes of the semifinal against North Texas. Rare is the team that returns to the NIT, and rarer is the team that returns to the NIT Final Four, but we won’t rule them out. What has to go wrong and right for the Badgers to get back to college basketball’s most historic stage?
To get back to college basketball’s most historic stage, Wisconsin needs to replicate its formula last year: poor shooting percentages, inefficiency in transition and slow-paced half-court offense that limits their amount of chances at the free-throw line. Because the Badgers return over 92 percent of their minutes (according to Bart Torvik), their average preseason rating from a combination of KenPom, BartTorvik and Haslam Metrics has the Badgers at 25th in the country — meaning they are currently projected to make the 2024 NCAA Tournament based on preseason projections. Does this mean it will happen? Look at North Carolina last year, who returned the majority of their roster yet declined an offer to return to college basketball’s most historic stage. The bottom line: Wisconsin was an “okay” team last year that struggled mightily on the offensive end — causing them to lose many close games in gut-wrenching fashion. If the returners cannot find ways to learn from last year’s mistakes, it’s not entirely implausible (although unlikely) to predict that Wisconsin could see itself returning to the Field of 32 rather than the Field of 68.
TBC: Because of the way that North Texas game ended, the lasting impression of last year’s Wisconsin team, for a lot of us, was a lot of missed shots. Is the offense expected to be more palatable this season?
The North Texas game was certainly a tale of two halves for the Badgers. From 41 points in the first half to only mustering 13 points in the second half, it became ever-so-clear that the offense needed an offseason revamp to become more palatable this season. From an outsider’s perspective, it seems that the offense will be better, but the question remains: how much better? To start, Gard added St. John’s transfer AJ Storr, who averaged 8.8 PPG for the Red Storm in his freshman season. Storr is a versatile, athletic piece that can score on all levels and should immediately help revamp the offense. Secondly, Greg Gard noted that he expresses a desire to get to the free-throw line 25+ times a game. According to the NCAA, Wisconsin attempted only 14.3 free-throw attempts per game last year — placing them at 337th in the country. For context, last year’s leading free-throw attempts per game for a team was UT-Rio Grande Valley — which averaged 25.1 free-throw attempts per game, according to the NCAA. So is this realistic, jumping from almost last in the country to first in free-throw attempts per game? Most likely not. Is it realistic to think that the Badgers could average, let’s say, 17-19 free throws per game? Most definitely — and that could be the secret for the Badgers to simply get more points on the board.
TBC: This is a real “time flies” moment for some of us, but we’re entering Greg Gard’s ninth season in Madison. From afar, his tenure has appeared rocky. What would you guess the school expects from Gard this year in the way of success?
Simply put, an NCAA Tournament berth would be the expectation for a successful season from the school. Returning 92+ percent of your minutes from a team that somewhat narrowly missed the NCAA Tournament means an NCAA Tournament appearance is the floor for this team this year. Gard has an interesting case to be made throughout his tenure when trying to deem “success.” On one hand, it is nearly impossible for Gard to replicate the success of Bo Ryan, yet Gard has amassed a .634 career win percentage with two Big Ten regular-season titles. On the other hand, since the 1998-1999 season, Wisconsin has missed the NCAA Tournament twice — both coming from Greg Gard-coached teams in 2018 and 2023. In addition, Gard has yet to take the Badgers to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament with “his” guys rather than Bo Ryan recruits. Whether we are trying to deem Gard’s tenure in Madison successful or not, it seems pretty clear that the expectation is set for the NCAA Tournament given the roster that Gard and company have constructed this offseason. If not, athletic director Chris McIntosh is not afraid of making a big move — but I do feel that Gard is in a safer spot than many perceive him to be at the given moment.
TBC: Wisconsin is somewhat unusual as a state in that it only has one big state school. The University of Wisconsin system, though, is far-ranging, and filled with athletic success (I grew up kind of close to Whitewater, so I’m aware of the football). If the Badgers had to play against an all-star team, not only from UWGB and UW-Milwaukee but from the entire rest of the University of Wisconsin system, who would win?
Great question. First, let’s construct a historic all-star team stemming from the UW-System including UWGB and UW-Milwaukee.
G: Tony Bennett (UWGB)
G: Keifer Sykes (UWGB)
G: Terry Porter (UWSP)
F: Rob Jeter (UWP)
F: Chris Davis (UWW)
We are going to roll with a three-guard starting lineup because, heck, these guys can play (and I am a huge fan of three-guard starting lineups). Although this starting lineup lacks size, its athleticism and natural scoring ability give it the edge over this year’s Badger squad. From Terry Porter, who compiled a very successful 17-season NBA career alongside pure scorers in Tony Bennett (who also played in the NBA), Keifer Sykes, the 2012 NCAA Division III Player of the Year Chris Davis and UW-Platteville’s field goal percentage leader Rob Jeter (who currently coaches Southern Utah and was the former UW Milwaukee and Western Illinois coach), there is far too much talent on this team to fall short to this year’s Badgers squad. Yes, there might be a few easy dunks from Steven Crowl. Yes, there might be some “knacky” fouls on this star-studded All-Star team. But, when you combine NBA-like talent and athleticism against a team that has struggled to run the floor, the UW-System all-stars get the nod here.
TBC: One of our favorite moments of the 2023 NIT, as dairy lovers, was when that kid at Oregon held up the anti-cheese curd sign and Wisconsin promptly ended Oregon’s season. With Oregon on its way to the Big Ten next year, should we have any hope of a lactose-based rivalry? Of everyone joining the Big Ten next fall—USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington—which program are you most interested to see match up with the Badgers stylistically?
Stylistically, sign me up for a UCLA-Wisconsin defensive duel. Just last year, Mick Cronin’s Bruins posted a KenPom AdjD rating of 88.0 — marking the second-best defense in the country. The Badgers were not that far behind last year, posting a KenPom AdjD rating of 94.1 — marking them as the 19th-best defense in the country. A combination of these two defense-oriented styles only makes putting points on the board that much more critical. Yes, people might say it could look ugly, or hideous, however you wish to call it. Who wants to watch a 53-50 game? I would like to differ, arguing that this type of matchup displays the value of the little things, such as second-chance points, deflections, turnovers and all of the small details that make a monumental impact when putting the ball in the basket becomes that much harder to come by.
TBC: Wisconsin hosted the largest crowd of the 2023 NIT in their second round game against Liberty. They also drew praise from Oregon head coach Dana Altman for sending so much support to Eugene for a weeknight NIT quarterfinal. How common is that level of support for men’s basketball in the Big Ten? Is this a regional thing, or is it unique to Wisconsin?
Men’s basketball support in the Big Ten is very common. From Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State to Illinois, the Big Ten possesses a unique blend of rich history, passionate fan bases and boisterous student sections that continuously make home environments a tough environment to play in for opposing teams. Heck, even Rutgers, who was an afterthought in the Big East, has made the RAC one of the most difficult places to snag a win in the past five years. For the Wisconsin Badgers, the same can be said. Although many critics argue that the Badgers’ student section should be on the sideline rather than the baseline (similar to the Orange Krush of Illinois), the Kohl Center remains one of the tougher places to play not only in the Big Ten but in the Midwest. Badger fans tend to travel well and continue to support their team even if the Badgers are not an NCAA Tournament-level team (like last year.)
TBC: Dare we dream of a Wisconsin NIT title?
Never say never, but this doesn’t look like this is the season for Bucky to run the table in the NIT. There is far too much experience on this team for them to not make the NCAA Tournament. The Big Ten should be a *bit* down this year, which in all honesty helps the Badgers as their non-conference slate features the daunting likes of Tennessee, Arizona, Virginia, Providence and Marquette. The strength of schedule numbers will be on their side — which will only improve their metrics heading into March. Crazier things have happened, but don’t count on the Badgers making a dream run to an NIT title in 2024.
