32 for 32: Washington State’s NIT Outlook

Over the 32 days leading up to college basketball season, we’re profiling 32 different teams who could be in the NIT mix, aided in this effort by those who know them best (or the closest we could get). Today, Dave Andersen responds by email to our questions about Washington State.

Dave Andersen knows Washington State better than anyone else with whom we have ever spoken, and possibly better than anyone not directly involved with the WSU program themselves. He can be found on Twitter at @TheDiablo27.

Here’s the full list of 32 for 32’s published so far, with links:

The Barking Crow: It’s exceedingly rare for a team to make three straight NIT’s, but Washington State has a chance this season to do just that. What needs to happen with this team for the performance to be good enough to clear the NIT’s bottom cut line but bad enough to stay out of the tournament whose name we don’t say around here?

If Washington State Head Coach Kyle Smith has shown the world (or at least Pullman) one thing since he accepted what’s largely considered the most difficult head coaching gig in America prior to the 2020 season, it’s that he knows what it takes to build a winning team on the Palouse. Indeed, consider that during Ernie Kent’s five-year reign on the Palouse from 2015-2019, not only did Washington State fail to reach the NIT even once, but WSU never ranked higher than 186th on Ken Pomeroy’s leaderboard, leaving Smith with one hell of a mess to clean up.

And that’s exactly what Smith and staff have done—and are still doing. Over the last four-plus seasons in Pullman, the Cougs have ranked between 44th and 125th in KenPom’s rankings, landed ten of WSU’s 25 highest-rated recruits ever (per 247), while also posting four straight seasons with at least .500 records (prior to 2020, the last time a WSU team finished with a .500 record was in 2011 during the salad days of Klay Thompson).

That said, even though Washington State has shown such stark improvement and a knack for bringing serious talent to Pullman, earning a third straight bid to the NIT—while remaining off the radar of that Other Tournament—is a tricky needle to thread, particularly for a team that lost over half its roster (including four almost certain starters) and is predicted to finish 10th in the Pac-12. But if there’s one program in the country that thrives in the underdog role, it’s Washington State. The roster Smith built is certainly talented enough to make another run at the NIT, but how quickly the team gels is a huge question mark. If things click relatively early and if WSU can manage to avoid the injury bug that’s plagued the team since 2022, we could be looking at a 3-peat of making the NIT. Perhaps even a championship.

TBC: Washington State has been the subject of a lot of heartbreak these last 20 months, and I’m of course talking about losing in two straight NITs. Which hurt more: The Final Four defeat to Texas A&M in 2022 or the first-round loss to Eastern Washington this March?

These last 20 months have been rough on every WSU fan, but I don’t see the loss to Texas A&M in 2022 as anything but a speedbump on one hell of a fun ride. You have to remember that WSU was an afterthought on Selection Sunday going back a decade, so landing a 4-seed in the NIT, and then rolling Santa Clara, BYU, and SMU was absolutely exhilarating.

Bowing out in the first round to EWU last season, however, was an ugly game that showed the importance of depth, of which the Cougs had next to zero (star center Mouhamed Gueye was out that game, which gave the Cougs about half of one Big). This season should be much different in that department, however, as the Cougs will likely rely heavily on a nine-player rotation, including three new Bigs with serious size and skill.

TBC: We love the football school/basketball school question. Our understanding is that Washington State thinks of itself as a football school right now. What would need to happen to change that narrative?

WSU loves its football. We love saying we make a Bowl Game every year, even though WSU is usually predicted to finish near the bottom of the standings. We love beating UW. We love the Flag, and we love Cougar Football Saturday’s. I don’t see that love shifting full-on to basketball, but I can see that narrative changing to some extent. 

It won’t be easy, but turning WSU into a basketball school will require a lot of money and a lot of winning. In talking with folks at WSU’s two NIL collectives, I’m told it would take about $1.5M per year in NIL to build a top-60ish team. WSU’s collectives are doing excellent work, but the Cougs will need some wealthy alums (I’m thinking of one who resides in the Golden State) to give big money to the program. Smith has proven he can bring talent to Pullman, but WSU basketball needs more NIL dough to allow Smith to not only recruit top talent, but also to develop and retain that talent, rather than having to re-recruit his owns players every year.

TBC: On the conference realignment topic. Our impression is that Washington State is likely to be playing a lot of current Mountain West teams in the near future. Which of those schools do you think could be a good new rival for the Cougars?

The Mountain West is a fun conference with real talent. It’s the obvious home for Washington State and I’m all for it (despite the massive financial hit). It seems odd that a good rival would be in a different state, but if I had to choose one on WSU’s behalf, it would be Utah State. Ag school vs. Ag school. Let’s go.

I like Utah State for what some might see as an odd reason. The Aggies beat the crap out of WSU last season, and while painful, watching that offense run with such precision felt like I was witnessing something truly special—like Will Hunting doing math or Bobby Axelrod destroying a competitor. I’ve been a fan ever since.

TBC: Who is Washington State’s dream NIT opponent? Who would Washington State least like to play in the NIT?

Dream: UNC. My reasoning is simple: I want revenge for WSU’s loss to UNC in that Other Tournament in 2008, even though I’m fairly certain UNC wouldn’t show up.

Nightmare: USC. As we all know, WSU trounced USC in Pullman last season, but the Cougs lost the previous two games against USC on buzzer-beaters, one in 2022 and another last year. I simply can’t take another.

TBC: What’s something you wish more people knew about Washington State?

Bill Walton likes to refer to Pullman as the “Rome of the Pacific Northwest,” which is true and widely accepted, so I won’t get into that. I would, however, like to assure WSU basketball fans (and basketball fans at large) that WSU will finish the season much closer to the top half of the standings than the bottom, despite how much better the Pac will likely be this year.

WSU is too talented and too well-coached to finish at the bottom of the standings like many in the media have predicted. The Cougs have a few key returners and some excellent newcomers, headlined by Kansas transfer Joseph Yesufu, Idaho transfer Isaac Jones, and highly coveted NBA Academy Africa 4-star Rueben Chinyelu.

The Cougs also found seriously skilled players in the D-2, HS, and JUCO ranks, giving the team three strong Bigs (compared to one last year), two-to-three wings who can shoot the lights out, and a group of exciting guards who can score, distribute, and play defense.

Point guard has been an issue for the Cougs in recent years, but with guard Myles Rice set to earn significant minutes (after missing last season while he beat a cancer diagnosis) and Joe Yesufu poised to put the Pac-12 on notice that he’s an All-Conference talent, the NIT is defiNITely within reach this season.

TBC: Dare we dream of a Washington State NIT title?

I certainly am. The challenge will be threading that needle between good enough for the NIT and not good enough for the Other Tourney. If WSU can find that sweet spot by staying healthy and gelling quickly, the Cougs can certainly win the whole thing, but it’s going to be tough. Regardless of outcome, it’s going to be an exciting season on the Palouse.

NIT fan. Joe Kelly expert. Milk drinker. Can be found on Twitter (@nit_stu) and Instagram (@nitstu32).
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