Over the 32 days leading up to college basketball season, we’re profiling 32 different teams who could be in the NIT mix, aided in this effort by those who know them best (or the closest we could get). Today, Ken Pomeroy responds by email to our questions about Virginia Tech.
Ken Pomeroy is the creator of kenpom, a college basketball ratings system and analytics website that has become integral to coverage of the sport. His writing can currently be found at his substack, kenpom.substack.com.
Here’s the full list of 32 for 32’s published so far, with links:
- Auburn, with the Sickos CBB Committee
- BYU, with Mitch Harper
- Cincinnati, with Zach Fries
- Dayton, with Tyler Cronin
- Duquesne, with Tristan Freeman
- Indiana, with Matt Cox
- Iona, with Sam Federman
- Iowa State, with Joe Stunardi
- James Madison, with Bennett Conlin
- Loyola, with Ky McKeon
- Michigan, with the Sickos CBB Committee
- Missouri, with Jim Root
- North Texas, with Harry Miers
- Northwestern, with John Templon
- Notre Dame, with Stuart McGrath
- Ohio State, with Mark Titus
- Oregon State, with Andy Dieckhoff
- Penn State, with DJ Bauer
- South Carolina, with Brian Rauf
- St. Bonaventure, with SBUnfurled
- St. John’s, with the Sickos CBB Committee
- Syracuse, with the Marshall Street Podcast
- Texas, with NIT Stu
- Utah, with Andrew Crowley
- Virginia Tech, with Ken Pomeroy
- Washington State, with Dave Andersen
- Wisconsin, with Cole Amundson
The Barking Crow: Virginia Tech won an NIT title in 1995, while you were a student. For some programs, that might not be a top-shelf trophy, but the Hokies hadn’t had a lot of postseason success to that point in their men’s basketball history. How much did that championship mean to the program?
A lot! The program actually had some decent tradition, including a national championship in 1973. Things peaked in the 80’s with the Dell Curry teams and then the program nosedived, eventually ending up on probation when probation was a thing. It was a full rebuild in the mid ’90s to get back to the NIT. Then to win the whole thing was pretty validating for a group of unheralded recruits that hung together for four years.
TBC: This year’s team is, at this preseason moment, in the right territory of your rankings to ultimately make the NIT. What could go right, causing them to miss it on the high side? What could go wrong, causing them to miss it on the low side?
Well, the starting backcourt of Sean Pedulla and Hunter Cattoor is good enough to be a part of an NCAA tournament team. It really comes down to how the mysterious supporting cast of returning reserves, marginal transfers, and under-recruited freshmen perform. Notably, the Hokies lost Justyn Mutts, who could only be described as a “basketball player” as he did just about every basketball-related thing well, even if he wasn’t necessarily great at anything. Whether his impact can be replaced will be the challenge.
TBC: Virginia Tech’s courtship with the ACC took a long, long time. Do you think the school’s basketball/football power balance would be different had they been allowed to join in the 50s, alongside Virginia, or was Virginia Tech always destined to be more known for its football?
I don’t think it was ever destined to be a football school. The football program didn’t have much tradition until Frank Beamer arrived in the late 80’s. The consistent success under his leadership is still stunning in my mind. Then he left and the program really hasn’t been nationally relevant since. There’s certainly room for it to be a basketball school again. The women’s team had a tremendous season and is expected to do so again, and the men’s team could get back there under the right circumstances. Time’s ticking on the existence of the ACC as we know it and I think the path to success is much more difficult in football than basketball if you’re not in one of the top 3 leagues.
This isn’t specifically about Virginia Tech, but it’s something we’ve wondered about here at The Barking Crow, and we’d imagine you’re a good person to ask. From your viewpoint, are there traits which make some college basketball teams likelier than others to win consistently in single-elimination settings, like the NIT? Is consistency itself an asset? Or is the best indicator of tournament success simply being a really good team?
Consistency is an asset for a great team. The problem is that consistency is pretty hard to measure. In the early days of my site I posted a consistency measure in the ratings, but then I discovered it wasn’t really predictive. Past consistency does not yield future consistency. I’d say it’s best to have 3-4 guys that can beat a team. You don’t want to be dependent on 3-point shooting from a couple of guys. You don’t want to be dependent on a 7-foot-4 center for 35% of your offense. In the tournament, opponents can take away your best options, so having multiple ways to succeed becomes more important.
TBC: Mike Young is entering his fifth year at Virginia Tech. What has most surprised you about his tenure, and how close do you think his teams have been to maximizing Virginia Tech’s program potential?
I was pretty lukewarm on the hire, but while he hasn’t been a smashing success, the team has basically been an average ACC team for the past four seasons, which is in line with the team’s recent past. And winning the ACC tournament in 2022 was a top five accomplishment in program history. As a fan you always hope for more, but the Mike Young era has been pretty entertaining so far.
TBC: Many would say Virginia Tech’s best player this season should be junior point guard Sean Pedulla. Sean Pedulla happened to grow up in Edmond, Oklahoma. Edmond luckily doesn’t have quite the same tornado history as nearby Moore, but as all Oklahoma City suburbs are, it’s right in the heart of Tornado Alley. As a meteorologist who also works in the college basketball space, do you think there are any advantages or disadvantages for athletes who grow up under the threat of massive storms?
It would be distracting for me. I would just want to chase storms all the time instead of practicing my crossover. But my research has determined that Pedulla is majoring in Sports Media and Analytics. So he’s probably oblivious to the fascinating world of weather.
TBC: Dare we dream of a Virginia Tech NIT title?
Yes. Yes we do. We’re still smarting from last season’s first round loss to Cincinnati. This is a program that had won 12 consecutive first round games in the NIT, been to the semifinals three times, and of course won the whole thing twice. With 25 total wins in the event, there are few programs with as much NIT tradition as Virginia Tech. The fact that it’s been 28 years since our last title weighs heavily.
