32 for 32: Dayton’s NIT Outlook

Over the 32 days leading up to college basketball season, we’re profiling 32 different teams who could be in the NIT mix, aided in this effort by those who know them best (or the closest we could get). Today, Tyler Cronin responds by email to our questions about Dayton.

Tyler Cronin co-hosts the 3 Bid League Podcast, the original A-10 basketball podcast. His work can be found on twitter at @3BidLeaguePod.

Here’s the full list of 32 for 32’s published so far, with links:

The Barking Crow: Let’s start with last year. Details remain unclear (at least to me) on whether Dayton was invited to the NIT or declined due to injuries before an invite was extended, but at the very least, the Flyers were extremely close to making the 2023 NIT. What needs to happen for the program to move up enough to make the 2024 NIT without moving up so far that they overshoot it?

If the A-10’s best center DaRon Holmes II (a possible All-American) and his running mate, point guard Malachi Smith, both stay healthy for the entire season (a big IF for Smith) and continue to improve off of last season then Dayton is a surefire postseason team.  However, after losing Toumani Camara to the NBA and coming off a season in which their wings for the most part all underperformed or got hurt, the difference between making the NCAA vs the NIT will come down to the performance of a half dozen role players, a pair of returning wings who were extremely inconsistent (Kobe Elvis and Koby Brea), a star transferring up in conference (Enoch Cheeks) and some super talented forwards with minimal to no college experience (Nate Santos, Marvel Allen and Petras Padegimas).  If that group produces a borderline All-Conference player and three strong role players then the Flyers have a good chance to not be eligible for the NIT (due to an NCAA invite).

TBC: Dayton is one of the most successful NIT programs in human history, having made the NIT championship eight times and going 3–5 in those games. All of those championships, though, were in Madison Square Garden. What would it mean to this program to bring home an NIT title at historic Hinkle Fieldhouse, so close to home?

As great as Madison Square Garden is, it is also never thought of as a place of champions, thanks to the Knicks. Sure, the Big East gives out trophies there but what do those really mean if you lose the next week anyways? Hinkle Fieldhouse holds a place of sports immortality, thanks to the greatest basketball movie champions ever, with Hickory High School finishing their legendary run in that building (Flint Michigan Mega-Bowl, while symbolic, was not a championship).  Now, Anthony Grant could etch his name into the history books right next to Norman Dale.  And it doesn’t hurt that some Dayton fans hold contempt towards Butler for stealing their Big East spot, and the Bulldogs haven’t brought too many joyous moments to Hinkle the last few years.

TBC: What emotion best describes what the Dayton fanbase would feel if they saw their team invited to the 2024 NIT?

Anger.

TBC: If Dayton were to make the NIT Final Four, could Hinkle sell out?

Yes. It’s an 1:56 drive from UD Arena. Dayton fans travel extremely well and are unfortunately deprived of the NIT home experience, as the First Four claims their arena during Round 1 and the Ohio High School Championships take it during Round 2, keeping the Flyers perpetually on the road in their NIT trips.

TBC: The NIT is a chaotic beast. What is the most chaotic thing about this year’s Dayton team?

There is a lot to choose from: Holmes’ thunderous dunks (although they cause more pandemonium than chaos), the lack of a clear starting lineup going into the season, the perpetual mystery of whether the fans will get to see Red Panda this year, basically everything but the Flyers’ offensive system has a bit of chaos to it. But what stands out the most is that there may not be a fanbase in sports that is so divided on their feelings about a coach.  Half of the fanbase is beyond thrilled to have a soft spoken alum who always wins and gave them a Top 5 team.  The other half is extremely perturbed by a lack of postseason appearances (missing last year’s NIT didn’t help) and would personally like to hand Anthony Grant a pink slip.

TBC: Dayton vanquished UNC in the 2010 national championship, famously denying Roy Williams what would have been his only career title. Do you have thoughts on the theory that UNC was trying to dodge Dayton when it turned down its NIT invitation last March?

No, UNC likely had an inkling that Dayton was going to bow out since they only had five healthy players. I think it’s a deeper issue than that, since UNC’s entire reputation is dependent on titles won in a prior century, they have to continue to boost the profile of the tournaments that appear in their trophy case. If they were to ever win their second NIT title, it would simply remind fans that they were never as successful as Dayton (and Bradley, St. John’s and Stanford).

TBC: Dare we dream of a Dayton NIT title?

It’s not much of a dream when most of your fanbase remembers the feeling of reaching the promised land just a bit over a decade ago.

NIT fan. Joe Kelly expert. Milk drinker. Can be found on Twitter (@nit_stu) and Instagram (@nitstu32).
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