1. What a day for Zach Davies.
Davies finally put it together again, walking one and allowing just six hard-hit balls over seven innings of work. It was the best outing by Davies as a Cub in terms of both performance and results, and while it came against a woeful offense on a bad weather day for hitting, it’s still a hopeful sign.
2. The offense didn’t put it away.
It’s possible this was just some bad luck, or that the Pirates’ pitching staff locked things down, but the offense had a chance to put the game out of reach early and didn’t do it, which then led to some dinks and doinks becoming nearly catastrophic in the ninth. The Cubs got away with it in the end, though, so no harm, no foul as long as it’s not a trend.
One way to think of this series is as a “trap series,” like a trap game in football or basketball. Coming off of those three huge, emotional wins, the Cubs are ripe for a letdown. So maybe it’s good that at least early, the momentum kept rolling.
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Around the Division:
The Brewers lost their sixth straight, opening their set in Miami by falling 6-1. The Cardinals shut out the Rockies 5-0. Wade Miley threw a no-hitter for the Reds in Cleveland, winning 3-0.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. St. Louis: 19-14, 32.4%
2. Milwaukee: 17-16, 38.7%
T-3. Cincinnati: 15-15, 15.0%
T-3. Cubs: 16-16, 13.6%
5. Pittsburgh: 13-18, 0.2%
Up Next:
Game two. Cubs trying to win their fifth straight.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Similar to yesterday, but not exactly the same—temperatures in the 40’s, wind blowing in from right field this time at about ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Trevor Williams vs. Wil Crowe
The Opponent:
Crowe is a recent addition to the Pirates rotation, having thrown just over eight innings for Washington last season and still fewer than ten this year for his current employer. Over two starts and one relief appearance on the year, things have gone ok—he’s got a 4.66 ERA—but it’s looked like the hammer might drop at any moment—he’s got a 5.77 FIP and a 7.82 xERA. He’s right-handed.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -170 favorites against a +155 line on their guests, which comes out to about a 60/40 split in win probability. The over/under’s at eight and favors the under.
Cubs News:
After we posted yesterday, the Cubs did send Ian Happ to the injured list, calling up Crystal Lake native (for those of you for whom Crystal Lake means something) Nick Martini. Martini posted a 131 wRC+ over 179 plate appearances in Oakland in 2018, but was below replacement-level over 109 plate appearances worth of play for the A’s and the Padres in 2019. He projects as about replacement-level in those FanGraphs systems that project such things.
In another move, the Cubs DFA’d Kyle Ryan and brought Jason Adam back to the big-league club. Interesting to see how much roster shuffling the front office is willing to do with the bullpen. The risk they run is that they’re cutting guys loose too early, but the risk in the counterfactual would be holding on to someone who’s lost it.
Finally, speaking of the bullpen, Craig Kimbrel was unavailable yesterday. David Ross said after the game he isn’t hurt or anything, and he’d made appearances in four of five days from Saturday through Wednesday, so it makes sense that they would want to give him consecutive days off, but things like that do always raise the nerves a little bit.
Cubs Thoughts:
A good win. Right now, all wins are good. And thanks to Davies lasting so long into the game, the bullpen’s still rather fresh for the next two games, of which the Cubs would really like to win one. Still liking the 28-25 mark at the end of May as a target. Sweeping the Pirates might bump the reasonable goal up to 29-24, but I shouldn’t get ahead of myself. Win today.
