There’s a thing, when your team’s losing in the playoffs. A slow crushing. A slow dawning of anxiety. It can be wiped away in an instant, but until that happens (if it does), it’s there, and in games like each of yesterday’s, it just grows. It grows and grows and grows. Into this looming shadow of dread.
The Dodgers and Red Sox are on the brink.
What Happened
Houston 9, Boston 1
Chris Sale was pitching well. He’d made it through five innings, striking out seven while allowing just one run—a second-inning shot by Yordan Alvarez. He was cruising, and good thing for the Red Sox that he was, because the Red Sox bullpen, as we know and would see, needs help from the starters.
It didn’t work out.
After walking Altuve to lead off the sixth, Sale drew a slow roller to Rafael Devers, shifted over into the shortstop part of the infield. It was unclear what happened—Kyle Schwarber’s desire to try to nab Altuve, running on the pitch, at third; Schwarber’s desire to keep the throw in front of him at all costs; Schwarber’s simple unfamiliarity with first base; all three of these things—but Schwarber, coming off the bag, dropped the throw. First and third. Nobody out. Astros ahead 1-0.
Sale still had it. He got a dribbler out of Alex Bregman, recording an out while keeping Altuve at third, and then he induced a relatively soft liner from Alvarez.
Unfortunately, the liner fell in.
Double.
Two more runs.
On came Ryan Brasier, and after striking out Carlos Correa, he allowed three to score with two outs. A five-run inning. 6-0 Astros. Game, it would turn out, over.
Credit belongs to Framber Valdez, who worked eight innings on a scant 93 pitches, allowing just one run while giving the Astros’ own beleaguered bullpen some necessary rest. It was a sensational outing by Valdez. It was so nearly a sensational outing by Sale. But one team cracked, the other did the cracking, and the Astros head back to Houston with a 3-2 series lead.
Atlanta 9, Los Angeles 2
Atlanta was written off by so many. They’d lost an opportunity to make it a 3-0 series, they were going with a bullpen game in Game 4, their starter in that bullpen game had to be scratched a few hours before the first pitch…it looked bleak. The moneyline was one of the widest in the playoffs thus far, if not the widest.
They beat ‘em.
They beat ‘em soundly.
Three solo home runs off of Julio Urías set the pace. Drew Smyly navigated ten outs while holding onto the lead. The bullpen held. The offense tacked more on. Eddie Rosario nearly hit for the cycle, but homered in his last at-bat rather than doubling, settling for a simple two-home-run night.
Decisive. Defiant. Atlanta: One win away.
The Heroes
Win Probability Added leaders, from FanGraphs:
- Valdez (0.35)
- Alvarez (0.28)
- Rosario (0.15)
What It Means
Houston is your new World Series favorite, with a Houston/Atlanta matchup rather likely at this point. FanGraphs does give the Red Sox a one-in-four shot, and it gives the Dodgers a one-in-five shot, and teams obviously do win two or three games in a row with plenty of frequency, but it’s most likely that the Astros win one of the potential two in Houston and Atlanta takes the pennant themselves before the weekend’s up.
Other Notes
- Dave Roberts, seeing the writing on the wall, gave his bullpen stalwarts some rest as Atlanta put the game at arm’s reach early. It’s likely a bullpen game today, making this rather important. (Could’ve started Max Scherzer twice this series on normal rest if you hadn’t let him pitch that ninth against the Giants, Dave…)
- Atlanta walked just one batter all night.
- The Dodgers mounted a small rally in the fifth to make it 5-2, but got nothing from there.
- Adam Duvall and Freddie Freeman hit the other home runs for Atlanta. Freeman was on base three times.
- A.J. Minter worked a big two innings of relief after the Los Angeles rally. Tyler Matzek and Will Smith pitched a clean eighth and ninth.
- Phil Bickford and Justin Bruihl kept the Dodgers in it, but there was to be no repeat of Game 4.
- The Red Sox recorded just three hits and a walk, with a Rafael Devers home run the only source of scoring.
- Alvarez and Yuli Gurriel each had three hits, with Gurriel doubling after the Alvarez double to really break things open.
***
Now, today, with the ALCS traveling to Texas.
The Basics
Where: Dodger Stadium
When: 8:08 PM EDT
Broadcast: TBS
Starting Pitchers: TBA (LA); Max Fried (ATL)
Odds: LA -140; ATL +130; o/u 8 [English translation: Los Angeles is roughly 57% likely to win; Atlanta is roughly 43% likely to win; the expected number of runs scored is eight]
The Details
What’s the plan for Los Angeles? It sounds like it’s a bullpen game, with the hope being they can get through tonight, take the day of rest, and then line up Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler for Games 6 and 7.
You could do worse.
A thing about where the Dodgers are at is that they’ll be favored in every game they play from here on out. They aren’t favored to win all the games, cumulatively, but they’re favored in each individual game.
Another thing about where the Dodgers are at is that their bullpen is very good. Bickford and Bruihl and even Tony Gonsolin could probably go again if asked, but even if we take Bickford and Gonsolin and Urías and Scherzer and Buehler out of the equation, the bullpen stacks up as follows, with regular season innings pitched and FIP in the parentheses:
- Kenley Jansen (69.0; 3.08)
- Blake Treinen (72.1; 2.88)
- Brusdar Graterol (33.1; 3.95)
- Joe Kelly (44.0; 3.08)
- Corey Knebel (25.2; 2.90)
- Alex Vesia (40.0; 4.22)
- Evan Phillips (13.1; 3.84)
- Justin Bruihl (18.2; 3.97)
Can you get nine innings out of those guys? Yes. Treinen’s pitched multiple innings with some regularity. Ditto Phillips. Others can too, and it’s one of those things where if you get a guy through an inning on fewer than fifteen pitches, you can try to ride him for another few outs. With Treinen available at some point (the best way to use him would be a moment when you can most ensure he doesn’t have to bat), you really probably only need one other guy to get six outs. And there’s no law against riding Treinen for more than six outs, or riding any one of these guys. Not only are the Dodgers’ backs against the wall, but no matter what happens tonight, tomorrow’s an off-day. Sell out.
FanGraphs projects a 3.63 FIP from the Dodgers’ bullpen as a whole, and projects slightly better from the guys expected to pitch tonight, since Bickford and Gonsolin are two names pulling that number upwards. Fried has a projected 3.57 FIP, having notched a 3.31 in the category in the regular season. So, yes, Atlanta has an advantage on the mound. But it’s not a huge one.
(It’s worth noting that with Justin Turner out for the rest of the postseason, the Dodgers will be required to add a position player to the roster, not a pitcher, so that won’t bring David Price into the ranks of the active.)
The Stars
The Dodgers will gain a lot of flexibility if they can jump on Fried early, which amps up Mookie Betts’s already large importance. For Atlanta, can Eddie Rosario keep this up? He’s slashing .467/.515/.733 on the postseason.
