A little late on this, so apologies for that. Due to circumstances (the puppy), our model didn’t run overnight like it usually does. This isn’t that bad of a thing—we only ran 1,000 simulations instead of the normal 10,000, so we weren’t as precise, but that precision might be outweighed by higher accuracy since we didn’t have to use proxies for yesterday’s NET/KPI/SOR movement. We should be back to overnight, proxy-using, ten thousand-simulation bracketologies the rest of the way (with a kind-of-exception of Sunday, which we’ll talk about later this week). Anyway, no huge impact, but as always, wanted to be transparent about where we’re at.
In other news, Illinois is finally up to a 1-seed in our updated bracketology, so our model was convinced by the win yesterday (which might cost us some clicks, incidentally, in an illustration of why sports media stinks).
Now, yesterday’s movement, of which there was a lot:
Moving Up: Virginia, North Carolina
In at-large land, it was all ACC yesterday, with the scope of UNC’s victory, the fact Virginia won, and Florida State losing a bad one at Notre Dame combining to shake up that league’s picture. The end result is that Virginia, though not the ACC favorite, is up to a 4-seed in our projection, and UNC is comfortably off of the bubble. While elsewhere…
Moving Down: Florida State, Louisville
…FSU moved down to a 5-seed and Louisville, though expected to lose to Virginia, saw their median projection change enough that they’re now only expected to be one of the last eight or nine teams in the field.
Louisville is fairly safe—their median simulation doesn’t have them losing to Duke (Duke would be favored, but Boston College wins the BC/Duke game in enough simulations that Louisville’s expected to make the ACC quarterfinals), but losing to Duke wouldn’t majorly affect the Cardinals’ résumé. Still not comfortable, but likely just one win away from locking it up.
Moving In: Drake, UNC-Greensboro (auto-bid), Morehead State (auto-bid), Hartford (auto-bid), North Carolina A&T (auto-bid)
Drake might be safe now. It’s close enough that our model might be wrong on them being in/out, but if it’s correct, they can afford losing to Loyola today. Meanwhile, Furman lost in the SoCon, making UNCG the new favorite there; Morehead State beat Belmont for the OVC title; Hartford steps into the A-East slot with UMBC and Vermont going down; and North Carolina A&T becomes the MEAC favorite now that we have the MEAC bracket.
Moving Out: Xavier, Belmont (auto-bid), Furman (auto-bid), Vermont (auto-bid), Norfolk State (auto-bid)
Xavier fell to Marquette, which you don’t want to do. Norfolk State doesn’t get the bye NC A&T gets in the MEAC Tournament.
