If you’ll recall last week, around this time we were one day into the Maui Invitational. Stanford had just obliterated Alabama. Indiana looked dominant against Providence. On (another part of) the mainland, Richmond had scored one of the best victories of the season, winning at Kentucky.
How quickly things change.
We ran our college basketball model again today. You can find its latest bracketology here. While some trends continued (Providence dropped below even our NIT Bracketology this week), many reversed themselves (see our notes on Stanford and Alabama below). Others, like Richmond’s marquee win, clarified.
Here’s what happened:
Biggest Movers: Alabama (up), Xavier (up), Missouri (up), Stanford (down)
Stanford hung with UNC after the Alabama win, but the loss to Indiana, on the heels of Indiana’s own blowout loss to Texas, hurt the Cardinal, who dropped from a projected five-seed down to a nine-seed. Meanwhile, Alabama re-entered the field, rising from a projected NIT four-seed to a spot in the First Four. The Tide found their groove as the week went on, and the numbers show it.
For Xavier, the road win over Cincinnati was the week’s calling card, and while road victories might not be as impressive as in normal years, the ratings systems the selection committee uses likely don’t know that, or only know it in part. The Musketeers are 6-0, and while they haven’t played any projected tournament teams, the successful nonconference slate could buy them some cushion down the line, thinking purely in terms of win-loss record optics.
Similarly, Missouri stole one that might look better in March than it does now, and grabbed a second cookie while their hand was in the jar. Oregon was short-handed when the Tigers took them down in Omaha, and Wichita State is in some rather understandable turmoil right now. If both turn it around—and we expect at least Oregon to do so—they’ll lift Mizzou’s résumé right alongside their own.
Entering the Field: Alabama, Xavier, Missouri, LSU, UConn, Arkansas, USC, Drexel (auto-bid)
LSU’s offense is good. Their defense isn’t great, but they’re grading out as the fifth-best offense in the country. Against an SEC that suddenly looks blindfolded at the top, if not entirely headless, they should win some games.
UConn’s victory over USC was ugly. It was also very slow. A 61-58 game doesn’t hurt a team’s projections much if that game lasted only 60 possessions. Coupled with an impressive USC win over BYU, both teams slide into the field, as do Arkansas—who did well on the mid-major circuit—and Drexel, your new CAA favorite.
Exiting the Field: Kentucky, Mississippi, Miami, TCU, Richmond, Colorado, Dayton, Hofstra (former auto-bid)
Holy Calipari.
Do we expect Kentucky to wind up in the field? Our model isn’t giving us percentage likelihoods, due to all the uncertainty surrounding scheduling and selection decisions, but my guess is they’re not in a terrible place, and for whatever it’s worth, they’re still one of the model’s NIT one-seeds. But that loss to Georgia Tech was terrible. Terrible enough to drag Richmond back down with them.
Mississippi hasn’t played yet, finding themselves more a victim of missed opportunities and games around them than any misdeed of their own. Colorado was also idle, and while Miami played, they only did about as expected against Stetson. It’s so early in the season that there’s a lot of noise in the model, and the projections around the bubble are very tight, still, so nothing to be concerned about for these guys.
However.
Dayton and TCU missed opportunities, Dayton dropping a thrilling ending to SMU after leading much of the game and TCU failing to get a home victory against the Big 12’s sixth man, Oklahoma. Plenty of chances remain, but those were good ones.
Other Headlines:
With their Maui victory (or more importantly, what they showed while earning that victory), Texas jumped into a one-seed, as did their Sunday afternoon vanquishers, the Villanova Wildcats. With the top of the Big 12 so heavy, it’s likely at least a couple teams will slide from their perch, but as for now, all five of the big hitters are a three-seed or better.
Duke’s sloppy play so far and the home loss to Michigan State dragged them down off the one-line. Pressed to guess, as with Kentucky we’d say there’s nothing that big to worry about (and being projected a two-seed in December is great for pretty much any team), but then again, these are the model’s median projections stacked on top of one another. The risks are real (but again, more so for Kentucky than Duke).
There are a few trendy teams that have yet to convince our model, and they all come from the Midwest. Iowa, ranked third in the AP Poll, is a five-seed in our projection. Illinois, ranked sixth, is an eight-seed. Creighton, ranked eighth, sits next to Iowa as a five-seed. This isn’t an indictment of any of these teams, and it’s possible the voters are right. But it’s more likely than not that they’re overvaluing these three, and Illinois in particular sits in dangerous territory with the Big Ten gauntlet ahead of them.
