Well that was a fun first night.
What Happened
The Red Sox jumped on Gerrit Cole, with home runs by Xander Bogaerts and Kyle Schwarber forcing a quick hook. Nathan Eovaldi was lights out twice through the order, but when Anthony Rizzo came up for the third time, he took the Red Sox ace deep, curling one just inside the Pesky Pole. An Aaron Judge infield single later, the Yankees were in business, and Alex Cora turned to an uncertain bullpen.
Ryan Brasier didn’t exactly “do his job.” Giancarlo Stanton cranked one into the gap, a 115-mph fly ball that smacked into the far flank of the Green Monster before dropping to Kike Hernández. The Yankees, trying to pull within a run, sent Judge to the plate. Hernández’s throw bounced perfectly to Bogaerts’s glove-side hip. Bogaerts caught, made the exchange, and fired home. Judge was out, tagged on the chest while his hand hung, when the replay paused on the moment of the tag, a foot from the plate.
From there, the Red Sox bullpen really did do its job. It did more than its job. Tanner Houck and Hansel Robles, who split the seventh and the eighth, combined to strike out three, walk none, and allow zero baserunners. Meanwhile, Luis Severino lost his control, normally reliable Jonathan Loáisiga walked three batters while recording just three outs, and the Red Sox pulled away, with a Stanton home run in the ninth proving the Yankees’ only additional run.
Red Sox 6. Yankees 2.
The Heroes
Bogaerts had the highest Win Probability Added, at 0.17, and that doesn’t factor in the relay to the plate. Eovaldi also had a WPA of 0.17. Brasier had the next-best WPA, at 0.07, but some of that, again, was Bogaerts, and some was Hernández, and some was Kevin Plawecki, who applied the tag.
What It Means
The Red Sox are now, per FanGraphs, the favorites in the American League, though betting markets dispute that, and FanGraphs does still have J.D. Martinez in the lineup, which is appearing unlikely in the immediate future. For the Yankees, it’s yet another underachievement, something that’s been the norm with this core, oftentimes because of the larger-sample-size failures of the regular season, which in this case was what landed them in the Wild Card Game in the first place.
Other Notes
- To be fair to Stanton, the Green Monster saved him in the first, when a pop fly turned into the single by brushing against the wall on its descent.
- Schwarber’s home run was the second of his career off of Gerrit Cole in a Wild Card Game.
- Cole’s FIP for the outing was 16.17, worse than any regular season start of his since April of 2019. FIP isn’t really a single-game stat, but it captures strikeouts, walks, and home runs, and those broke badly for the Yankees’ ace.
***
Now…tonight.
The Basics
Where: Dodger Stadium
When: 8:10 PM EDT
Broadcast: TBS
Starting Pitchers: Max Scherzer (LAD); Adam Wainwright (STL)
Odds: LAD -240; STL +210; O/U 7½ (u -120) [English translation: The Dodgers are roughly 69% likely to win; the Cardinals are roughly 31% likely to win; the expected number of runs scored is somewhere between 7 and 8, closer to 7 than 8]
The Details
As with last night, injuries are a story. Specifically, the Dodgers will have to deal with the absence of Max Muncy, their best position player this year by fWAR, who dislocated his elbow in Sunday’s regular season finale. It could be Cody Bellinger. It could be Matt Beaty. It could be Billy McKinney. It could be Albert Pujols, which brings us to the meat of this game.
This is an old-timer’s game for the St. Louis Cardinals. In addition to seeing Pujols in Dodger blue across the diamond, they’ll have Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina leading the charge out of their own dugout, 39 and 38 years old, a playoff battery yet again. It’s been a renaissance for Wainwright, whose 3.66 FIP is his best in a qualifying season since 2014, and whose 3.8 fWAR is also his best since 2014. He’s no Max Scherzer, but he gives the Cardinals a chance.
Someone who is Max Scherzer is Max Scherzer, 37 years old himself but far from the retirement speculation that’s accompanied Wainwright in recent years. If you extrapolate Scherzer’s 1.8 fWAR last year over a full season of starts, it comes out to about 4.5, which would have been his worst since 2012. This year, he bounced back, with a 5.4 mark, fifth-best among pitchers MLB-wide. Scherzer is certainly regressing as he ages, but he’s still Max Scherzer, and across one recent stretch after his acquisition by the Dodgers he made three straight starts without allowing an earned run or a walk, striking out 31 batters over 22 innings in the process. He’s scuffled a bit the last two times out, allowing three home runs and ten earned runs in total. But his strikeouts and walks have been there, indicating he’s been more on his game than the scoreboard has made it appear.
The Dodgers’ lineup is the Dodgers’ lineup. Even with Bellinger having a brutal season at the plate and Muncy sidelined, Los Angeles will send three position players out there who are, by projections, better than the Cardinals’ best. Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, and NL fWAR leader Trea Turner (no, Turner shouldn’t win the MVP, but only because it should go to Corbin Burnes or Zack Wheeler instead) are all 5.5-fWAR or better players on paper, and if Bellinger starts, all eight Dodgers hitters will be above-average by projection at the plate, something true for only three Cardinals bats.
That’s not to say the Cardinals don’t have guys. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are still great players. Harrison Bader finally got back to his rookie level of performance. Tyler O’Neill was a sensation this regular season. And Molina, of course, is a productive baseball player who will let you know if he comes through at the right time. But the Cardinals are not the Dodgers.
This disparity’s evident in the bullpen, too. The Cardinals’ relief corps is bolstered by the addition-by-necessity of Jack Flaherty, but Flaherty, Giovanny Gallegos, and Luis García are the only sub-4.00 FIP projected pitchers in the unit, whereas the Dodgers have six. The Cardinals probably really need Wainwright to make it at least five innings, and ideally six or seven. The Dodgers could pull Scherzer after two innings if it got dicey and not lose too much of a step.
The Stars
Betts. Seager. Turner. Justin Turner. Scherzer. Bellinger, really. Wainwright. Molina. Arenado. Goldschmidt. O’Neill.
One name to keep an eye on here is Blake Treinen. The Dodgers’ setup man isn’t on the plane of Josh Hader or former Oakland teammate Liam Hendriks, but he’s arguably the best Dave Roberts has, and he’s comfortable working for more than three outs. If this is tight, he’s going to matter, and more likely than not, he’s going to matter in a good way for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
