1. That Anthony Rizzo at-bat.
What a moment. I don’t know what to say about it besides that, really. What a moment.
2. That Sergio Alcántara triple!
The triple brought the Cubs from one-in-five to win up to one-in-three on FanGraphs win probability chart, and was a big, “Oh, they’re going to make this a game,” moment. It came directly in between the two Yadier Molina errors (just a reminder that Yadier Molina accused MLB of keeping the Gold Glove away from him last year because they didn’t want him to tie Johnny Bench), which were massive for the momentum as well, and were the kind of thing that a crowd at least accentuates, and possibly helps drive. The energy in that stadium, even just watching on a computer screen…that was fun.
3. Maybe Kohl Stewart isn’t going to be the Cubs’ ace.
I was corrected a little bit yesterday. I haven’t been saying Stewart would be the Cubs’ ace, but I’ve thought of him as potentially a third starter. The upside, with the pedigree, is there. Yesterday was good for correcting that.
That said, I do still think he’s not that far behind Jake Arrieta and Trevor Williams in trustworthiness.
4. Joc Pederson!
The Cub with the biggest Win Probability Added yesterday was Pederson, who’s up to a 111 wRC+ and 0.5 fWAR. Not too shabby, and if you raise his expectations from his average performance so far to his average performance since returning from the IL in early May (since that date he’s got a 140 wRC+), he could well get up past 2.0 WAR, which is a lot for a seven-million dollar man.
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Around the Division:
The Brewers continued to eat their vegetables, pushing past the Pirates with five in the seventh to win 7-4. The Reds did a little vegetable-eating themselves, beating Colorado 11-5.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
T-1. Milwaukee: 36-27, 57.8%
T-1. Cubs: 36-27, 27.8%
3. St. Louis: 32-31, 7.4%
4. Cincinnati: 30-31, 7.0%
5. Pittsburgh: 23-9, 0.0%
Hey there, Cards. Why don’t you just sell now? Could be fun!
Up Next:
Game 2
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Whom:
Cubs vs. St. Louis
When:
6:15 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Small chance of rain, temperatures in the 70’s, wind blowing in but only at about five miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Kyle Hendricks vs. John Gant
The Opponent:
I didn’t realize this yesterday (got fooled by the ERA), but Gant is a bit of a puzzle, with a 2.63 ERA over eleven starts but a 4.56 FIP and a 5.78 xERA. His last start out went terribly—two strikeouts, three walks, two home runs in a seven-earned run, four-inning performance against Cincinnati—and given he’s struck out only four more batters than he’s walked on the year, it’s probably fair to view him as an appetizing meal for Cubs’ hitters looking to keep the good times going.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -180 favorites, with the Cards at +165. That’s a little better than a 60% chance of a Cubs win, which is one of their biggest numbers in that category all year. The over/under’s at 8½.
Cubs News:
Anthony Rizzo had more to say about his vaccination decision after the game:
I obviously very much want to say, “Anthony Rizzo, I love you, do whatever the hell you want,” and then defend whatever he does, and while I still have some questions, I do think that given this is something we can’t control, it’s probably fair to tell ourselves and those around us that hey, Rizzo’s looking at the numbers and he’s a cancer survivor and he clearly appreciates medical personnel and scientists and he’s being honest, so let’s all just enjoy that home run yesterday and wish him the best, which is what we should wish everybody.
Still no starter listed tomorrow, so we’ll see whether it’s Zach Davies or a bullpen guy. I’d kind of expect that announcement to come pregame, but if Davies is ok with it, there’s probably some merit to waiting, seeing if the Cubs win this series, and then bumping Davies back so you might be able to get through the Mets series without using Stewart.
Cubs Thoughts:
Win this series today. There’s a lot of leverage here. The Cardinals don’t have a ton of obvious pieces to sell, Jack Flaherty’s expected to return at some point, and the further you can stomp them into the ground, the better for everyone else in the Central (also, if you win today you don’t even have to go .500 the rest of the month to finish June, and therefore the first half of the season, on a 90-win pace).
Also, Alcántara’s xwOBA is bad, so we should keep an eye on him, but I’m still voting to keep him over Eric Sogard if Matt Duffy comes back soon (though I do feel more and more that if such a scenario materializes, it’s Rafael Ortega getting the DFA, even if Sogard does have the worst xwOBA of the three).
