Wisconsin has the covid. They have it in bunches. They have so much of it they can’t play this week. They have so much of it they might not be able to play next week. They have so much of it that the probability of a staff member or player having severe complications has risen to a point where football should probably be an afterthought within the program right now.
The Badgers are often a fun team for playoff what-ifs. They’re frequent Big Ten West champions, which makes them frequent Big Ten Championship appearers, which puts them frequently in the midst of strange playoff scenario speculation. But this year, the scenarios are the strangest of all. For instance: If Wisconsin can’t play next week against Purdue, then have another opponent cancel later in the year due to an outbreak of their own, Wisconsin will only have five regular season games, which evidently makes one ineligible for the Big Ten Championship. Of course, the Big Ten could adjust the schedule at that point. They could make accommodations for Wisconsin. And the situation’s still purely a hypothetical. But it’s possible, and it’s not just Wisconsin who’s at risk: It’s everybody.
Coronavirus cases are on the rise nationally. The positive test rate is rising. Hospitalizations are rising. Deaths are rising. We are somewhere in covid’s third spike in America. And there’s nothing prohibiting it from taking down the College Football Playoff, or from making it a contest not of which teams are the best, but of which good teams are left standing. The uncertainty is high, and not in a quantifiable way. We don’t know what will happen (yes, no model yet this week—it’s possible we just won’t make one this year, given if we do make one, we’ll need to make a big guess on the uncertainty margins).
And yet, the games continue.
Games that Might Matter
Boston College @ Clemson (12:00 PM EDT, ABC)
Mississippi State @ Alabama (7:00 PM EDT, ESPN)
Clemson and Alabama are two of the three teams which can be considered “likely” for the playoff at this point, meaning they and Ohio State are leaps and bounds ahead of everyone else. Practically speaking, Trevor Lawrence’s absence today doesn’t really impact Clemson’s playoff chances. If it’s an extended absence, yes, it’s a big deal, and we obviously wish Lawrence the best health-wise, but even if Clemson loses, they’re still in the driver’s seat for a playoff berth. Just look how the committee responded (i.e., didn’t respond) in 2017 when Clemson lost to Syracuse. Kelly Bryant only missed about half that game. It was still treated as though it didn’t happen.
For Bama, no drama expected.
Memphis @ Cincinnati (12:00 PM EDT, ESPN)
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State (12:00 PM EDT, ESPNU)
Boise State @ Air Force (6:00 PM EDT, CBSSN)
Western Kentucky @ BYU (10:15 PM EDT, ESPN)
We’ve expanded our Group of Five radar to include Boise State, who matters doubly because not only do they theoretically have a fringe playoff shot, but they’re on BYU’s schedule, meaning college football anarchists have a vested interest in the Broncos performing well, even if just as fuel for the engine that is BYU.
Cincinnati still probably has the best shot of any non-Power Five school. Blowing out Memphis would help them more than it might seem.
Georgia @ Kentucky (12:00 PM EDT, SEC Network)
Michigan State @ Michigan (12:00 PM EDT, FOX)
Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech (3:30 PM EDT, ABC)
Texas @ Oklahoma State (4:00 PM EDT, FOX)
Arkansas @ Texas A&M (7:30 PM EDT, SEC Network)
Missouri @ Florida (7:30 PM EDT, SEC Network Alternate)
None of these teams are playoff-likely. Michigan will probably lose at least once, if not thrice. Oklahoma State should be an underdog against Oklahoma. Notre Dame should be an underdog against Clemson. The SEC challenger contingency has one loss apiece, though one came from within the contingency and two came from Alabama. These probably don’t matter. They’re equivalent to a backup quarterback competition in training camp. But they could, especially if the Pac-12 can’t get itself an undefeated champion.
The Game that Matters
Ohio State @ Penn State (7:30 PM EDT, ABC)
On paper, this remains Ohio State’s toughest game before the playoff, at least at this point in time. Penn State looked bad last week and still could’ve won by 21 in Bloomington had they changed the timing of a few turnovers. A huge game? No. A game that matters? Yes.
