Yes, we all know. Ohio State is the Big Ten favorite, and if they run the table, they will make the College Football Playoff, barring severe mediocrity in a substantial portion of their victories (especially late ones).
So let’s acknowledge that and move on. To who could sneak past them. And how they could do it.
One thing about small sample sizes is that they increase uncertainty. If you flip a coin ten times, it’s less likely you’ll land close to the true, 50/50 tendency of the coin than if you flip it 100 times. The Big Ten isn’t flipping the coin a whole lot of times this year. Yes, eight games is nearly the normal conference total, but the absence of nonconference play isn’t meaningless. The uncertainty adds up. One loss for Ohio State is always disastrous (especially the way they’ve tended to lose at times), but this year, there isn’t time to make as strong a pre-loss and post-loss case for themselves. The door isn’t more likely to swing open, but if it does swing open, it’s going to swing open a whole lot wider, and Wisconsin, Penn State, or a few other programs could jump on through.
This isn’t intended to disrespect Michigan and Minnesota, the challengers to the challengers. Both should be rather solid this year, though Michigan’s schedule is treacherous and Minnesota has to play Wisconsin down in Madison (where they’d be about a 9.5-point underdog if the game were played today). No, this isn’t meant as a slight to those particular rodents. But Penn State and Wisconsin are the two upon which to focus.
Penn State gets to host Ohio State this year, and they get to do it next week, in what’s just the second game of the season for both teams. The Nittany Lions do not match up with the Buckeyes, but they aren’t far off—perhaps a touchdown or so. Even last year, they managed to keep the deficit to eleven in Columbus, and their other loss came in Minneapolis in a game in which Sean Clifford threw three of his only seven total interceptions on the year. No, Penn State is not a playoff favorite, but they’re in the picture, and their path from dark horse to the lead is direct and immediate.
Wisconsin, if all follows script, gets the Buckeyes at the other end of the year, in the Big Ten Championship. The Badgers have their challenges: at Michigan, at Iowa, home against Minnesota. But those challenges aren’t on the same level as those of other playoff hopefuls. Bucky would be favored in Ann Arbor were the game to occur today (that or the market would be…brace yourselves…overestimating Michigan). And simultaneously, the implosion of the Big 12 and the continual not-quite-there-ness of the SEC East make it such that Wisconsin could possibly afford a regular season loss in the scenario in which they win the Big Ten West and beat Ohio State. If the only goal is making the playoff, they could theoretically focus the majority of their energy on Minnesota and Ohio State until they lose one elsewhere. No, we don’t have the model yet (this is getting old for us too, apologies). We don’t have a number to assign them. And yes, their status as a potential double-digit underdog in Indy (the Big Ten Championship’s in Indy again, right?) will put a hard cap on how high their chances can rise. But the chances are there.
Now, games this week that matter, and games that might:
Games that Matter
Notre Dame @ Pitt (3:30 PM EDT Saturday, ABC)
Notre Dame’s in that second tier of playoff contention, where they get in if they take care of business and utter disaster strikes the northwestern corner of the state of South Carolina. This one’s tricky, though. If not for the on-paper danger, then for whatever mental danger comes from knowing Pitt’s reputation for being tricky.
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State (3:30 PM EDT Saturday, FOX)
The remaining obstacle to the the-Big-12-is-dead narrative is Oklahoma State. It is very likely that the Pokes will not win the Big 12. But how far they go before falling, and the narrow probability they will manage not to fall, keep them firmly on the radar.
Games that Might Matter
Syracuse @ Clemson (12:00 PM EDT Saturday, ACC Network)
Nebraska @ Ohio State (12:00 PM EDT Saturday, FOX)
Alabama @ Tennessee (3:30 PM EDT Saturday, CBS)
Obligatory mention that each of these three teams is playing a football game this weekend, and in theory, each could lose said football game. Not Nebraska. You know which three.
NC State @ North Carolina (12:00 PM EDT Saturday, ESPN)
It’s fair to count out UNC. Go ahead and count them out. But don’t completely take your eyes off them. They still might be favored in each remaining regular season game, depending what happens with Miami and Notre Dame (and themselves). The table’s still set for them to play an effective CFP quarterfinal, even as a massive underdog against Clemson.
Penn State @ Indiana (3:30 PM EDT Saturday, FS1)
Penn State could really make this blog post look silly if they flop in Bloomington tomorrow. That, plus our readership base, is why Wisconsin (who plays Illinois tonight, by the way) got the headline.
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina (12:00 PM EDT Saturday, ESPNU)
FAU @ Marshall (2:30 PM EDT Saturday)
Cincinnati @ SMU (9:00 PM EDT Saturday, ESPN2)
Texas State @ BYU (10:15 PM EDT Saturday, ESPN)
The possibility of a Group of Five entrant to the playoff mix is higher this year than most, and while Coastal Carolina and Marshall are Cinderella pipe dreams, Cincinnati and SMU might not be, playing in a good-enough league with a big-enough schedule that going undefeated might be viewed as enough, especially if the Pac-12 and Big 12 each fail to produce an undefeated champion (especially especially if the Big 12 champion has two losses, and yes, we still think Oklahoma might be the best pick to win the Big 12). As for BYU, well, they’re certainly getting attention, even if the schedule looks easier than that of the Harlem Globetrotters (which obviously is not something to blame on BYU, and is instead an unfortunate reality for those wishing for CFP variety).
