1. The biggest threat to Kris Bryant’s MVP candidacy is Patrick Wisdom.
I kid, but holy shirts and pants. In a season in which every game is as high-leverage as this season’s games have been and figure to continue to be, Wisdom has made his presence felt in some big ways these last two days. The Cubs have started this stretch as well as they possibly could, and it’s hard to find a guy more responsible than Patrick Wisdom. Which, as has been said, means that even if he strikes out twenty times in a row, he has contributed in a meaningful fashion.
2. Please stand for a moment of Willson Contreras appreciation.
The core guys don’t always get the love, because they’re expected to produce and are therefore less charming when they produce, but Contreras produced at a big time last night, providing the answer to a Padres strike in the fifth. The Padres had taken control. Contreras took it back.
3. The bullpen looks so effortless right now.
This may change. There may well be hard moments for this bullpen. But it is hard to want anything more than what Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Chafin, and Ryan Tepera are giving the Cubs right now. They’re lights out. All three of them. And that does so, so much for confidence in a baseball team. Really shortens the game.
4. Rizzo got hits.
Anthony Rizzo returned from the IL and went 2-for-4, with neither of the singles exactly cheap. He did get picked off, but that’s not a trend. Good to see him looking good.
***
Around the Division:
The Cardinals beat the Dodgers in their second game out there, but earlier in the day put Jack Flaherty on the IL with an oblique injury that could sideline the ace for weeks. Eric Lauer’s fortunes changed as the Tigers jumped on him for a 10-7 win in Milwaukee. Twenty runs were scored in the mildly anticipated Sonny Gray/Aaron Nola matchup, and 17 of them were scored by the Phillies.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Cubs: 31-23, 32.1%
2. St. Louis: 31-24, 23.1%
3. Milwaukee: 29-26, 39.7%
4. Cincinnati: 24-29, 5.1%
5. Pittsburgh: 20-34, 0.0%
The Reds’ game today has already been postponed, and the Brewers were already off, so it’s just the Cardinals to watch when watching scoreboards. They play their finale in L.A., with Carlos Martínez opposing Walker Buehler. Cards might be the biggest underdogs they’ve been all year.
Up Next:
The Cubs, yet again, go for a sweep.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. San Diego
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Temperatures in the upper 60’s, but the wind’s blowing in from center at about ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Adbert Alzolay vs. Dinelson Lamet
The Opponent:
Lamet is still working his way back from forearm tightness this spring that was preceded by a UCL strain last fall. He’s yet to work through a fourth inning, though the Padres have been letting him go through the order more than once in his last two outings. He’s been effective. He’s an effective pitcher.
I’ve yet to see an update on Fernando Tatís Jr., who left last night’s game with oblique tightness. It wouldn’t be surprising if he sits today, at least as a precaution.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -125 favorites, with the Padres at +105. That implies about a 53% or 54% chance of a victory. The over/under’s at seven but favors the over.
Cubs News:
Lot of things. Shelby Miller evidently cleared waivers and has been released, so maybe teams aren’t as keen on him as we thought they were, which could be a lesson for the Tyson Miller situation as his DFA pends. Jason Heyward and Jake Marisnick are going to go down to AAA together for a rehab stint, with the hope that they’ll rejoin the Cubs this weekend in San Francisco.
Nick Martini, as we’ve been saying, is the obvious one to get sent down if nobody else is hurt when Heyward and Marisnick return (provided they return smoothly—really trying to cover all my bases here in avoiding any jinxing). Rafael Ortega is out of options, but he’d seem the most likely other one to get the boot—him or Brad Wieck, who does have an option remaining. Patrick Wisdom has three options left, so if he goes down to avoid the shorter bullpen or the Ortega DFA, we all get to make service time jokes.
Cubs Thoughts:
So far, so good, with a massive opportunity today to build cushion against that 45-36 number we set as an end-of-June target but also within the division, with the Cardinals drawing the easier straw this weekend, hosting the Reds for four instead of playing four in California against the Giants.
Lastly, let’s give mention to Lou Gehrig Day, the inaugural Lou Gehrig Day in Major League Baseball. It’s hard to think of a more terrifying, torturous disease than ALS, and all efforts to bring attention to it and end it are efforts well-spent. Good on Major League Baseball for making this a priority, and what better way to honor one of the all-time greats.
